Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > MTT Strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:09 PM
flettl2 flettl2 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 48
Default What you think about this theory of mine

Your playing an online tournament, lets say the blinds are 25/50 you have 1000 in chips and open raise it to 150. It gets folded around to the BB who has 10,000 in chips (including his BB) and goes all in. It's folded to you, and you look at the pot size, the software tells you the pot is 10,175, and it's 850 more for you to call. Well you're getting 12:1 on the call so insta call with any two right? Well of course thats not right because you forgot that you can only win 1000 from him, so you need to subtract from the pot what you can't win.
Well this example was obvious, and I doubt anybody would make the mistake thinking they were getting 12:1, but what if the stack sizes were a lot closer... then it wouldn't be as easy to realize that you can't win all the money in the pot.
So my theory is this: If a lone opponent raises (or just calls I guess), you have more chips than him (but not a lot more) and you want to put it all in preflop you should either:
1. If you want to get called, move all in yourself. Your opponent may miss the marginal differences in stack size and figure he's getting better odds than he really is and call more often.
2. If you don't want to get called, move him all in only. There will be less money in the pot, and he will call less often.

There are some other factors backing up my theory, like some people online (not live as bond stated a couple days ago) find all ins to be weaker than putting a lot of money in but leaving a little behind. Also if you just put your opponent all in, then he sees you have him covered and may be inclined to fold because he knows you can bust him this hand but he can't bust you.

Anyways what do you guys think?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:47 PM
MVPaul MVPaul is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Planet X
Posts: 276
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

Not too sure about your theory but I'm always interested in these bet sizing analyses and their regards to villain's wishes in the hand. The best example is open raises for 2bb pf. For some villains, this is pure weakness and a resteal is mandatory but for others, its all strength. I'd like to hear other such examples of bet sizing vs. putting villain on a range, though...
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-01-2007, 01:41 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
Posts: 3,999
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

Your original presumption is way way way off.

Anyone who thinks they are getting 12:1 when you have 1K and the villain moves in for 12K is obviously not thinking. You can only win the 1K. You are getting exactly 1:1. With dead money in the pot (blinds), you obviously are getting better than that in practice.

If you have some software that is telling you the potsize = X and it costs you Y to call but you can only win Y from the pot and Y < X, you should uninstall the software b/c it is [censored] retarded and leading you to make bad decisions.

Sherman
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-01-2007, 01:46 PM
levAA levAA is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Black Pearl
Posts: 1,202
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

[ QUOTE ]
If you have some software that is telling you the potsize = X and it costs you Y to call but you can only win Y from the pot and Y < X, you should uninstall the software b/c it is [censored] retarded and leading you to make bad decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:09 PM
flettl2 flettl2 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 48
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

[ QUOTE ]
Your original presumption is way way way off.
Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

you miss read my OP. I realize you are not getting 12:1, this was a deliberate exaggeration.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:29 PM
flettl2 flettl2 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 48
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

I may not be explaining myself clearly, sorry for that, so here's a better example.
blinds 25/50
Villain CO 1000
Hero BB 1500

Villain raises to 150, Hero goes all in.
Now on Pokerstars for example, Villain will see this on his screen: The pot is 1675, and it's 850 for him to call. Now lets say villain wasn't paying attention to stack sizes preflop, thinking they're about even (a fine assumption since this is SSMTT). He may take the total pot size and divide it by how much it costs for him to call, giving him about 2:1. THIS IS NOT CORRECT. Villain is actually only getting 1.38:1, because he forgot to subtract the amount of money Hero takes back because hero has him covered. Therefore in this case were Hero went all in instead of putting his opponent all in, the villain is given the chance to miscalculate his pot odds, and he'll call 2:1 more often than 1.38:1. (Villain would calculate 1.38:1 correctly if you just put him all in, because then when he reads on his screen, the amount in the pot, divided by how much it is going to cost him, and no money is given back to Hero).
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:43 PM
gtpitch gtpitch is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 151
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

I understand what you're saying but IMO the people that are dumb enough to miscalculate in a situation like that because of chips being returned...aren't smart enough to even know what pots odds are.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:47 PM
flettl2 flettl2 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 48
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you're saying but IMO the people that are dumb enough to miscalculate in a situation like that because of chips being returned...aren't smart enough to even know what pots odds are.

[/ QUOTE ]

yup thats a good point.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:06 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
Posts: 3,999
Default Re: What you think about this theory of mine

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you're saying but IMO the people that are dumb enough to miscalculate in a situation like that because of chips being returned...aren't smart enough to even know what pots odds are.

[/ QUOTE ]
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.