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  #81  
Old 11-30-2007, 07:06 PM
McMelchior McMelchior is offline
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: WINNING #%$! flips ... OK?
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
The probabilities ought to be additive.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not correct.

Each tournament is an independent event. Just because you didn't win 179 in a row doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win #180.

As with any other grouping of independent events you have to calculate the risk of not winning one specific tournament:

NW(1) = (180 - 1)/180 = 179/180 = 0.9944444 ....

From there you can calculate the risk of not winning any of X tournaments:

NW(X) = NW(1) raised to the power X = NW(1) * ... * NW(1) (that reads: NW(1) multiplied with itself X times).

This gives us the chance of winning (at least) one out of X tournaments:

CW = 1 - NW(X)

We're looking for the number of (random outcome) 180/$4.40 to play to have exactly 50% chance of winning one:

X = log(0.5) / log(NW(1)) = 124.4

So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.
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  #82  
Old 11-30-2007, 07:24 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The probabilities ought to be additive.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not correct.

Each tournament is an independent event.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I'm an idiot. U win.
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  #83  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:39 PM
Killingbird Killingbird is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

if my math teacher would have told me that math could help me in poker, I would have actually paid attention.
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  #84  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:21 AM
Lord_Strife Lord_Strife is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: 180 man FT
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]


Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.
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  #85  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:28 AM
Nate. Nate. is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Reading Garner\'s usage dictionary
Posts: 2,189
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]


Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strife--

You said you'd be able to play for like >40 hours, many of which are during peak hours. I took pen to paper and estimated the probability that you'd win one. It was higher than I'd previously guessed, but lower than I thought you'd think. (You'd talked like it was a certainty.) And, of course, I was willing to move from the 7-1 line.

--Nate
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  #86  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:31 AM
Lord_Strife Lord_Strife is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: 180 man FT
Posts: 1,046
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

[ QUOTE ]
Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]


Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strife--

You said you'd be able to play for like >40 hours, many of which are during peak hours. I took pen to paper and estimated the probability that you'd win one. It was higher than I'd previously guessed, but lower than I thought you'd think. (You'd talked like it was a certainty.) And, of course, I was willing to move from the 7-1 line.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you factor in how difficult it is to 12 table and how difficult it is to play after 12 hours? Fatigue and concentration is gonna suck hardcore if I'm doing this.
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  #87  
Old 12-01-2007, 12:42 AM
Lord_Strife Lord_Strife is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: 180 man FT
Posts: 1,046
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right.
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  #88  
Old 12-01-2007, 01:19 AM
Sherman Sherman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
Posts: 3,999
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.
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  #89  
Old 12-01-2007, 01:22 AM
Lord_Strife Lord_Strife is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: 180 man FT
Posts: 1,046
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful
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  #90  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:19 AM
Ontario_Tory Ontario_Tory is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Nate\'s Free!
Posts: 2,106
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL - If you're going to try to get the betting line to shift, you should be a bit more subtle than this... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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