Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[David Sklansky]

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If you go for one you will win 23%. The touchdown plus half your chances of making a tying field goal.


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Where did this number come from? I'm assuming you used someone's estimate from this thread to get the 23%?

Wait- I just realized, you're using the 3% TD + 1/2*40% FG? That's not going to be correct. The 3% TD is for when you are down 2 and don't need the TD to win. If you are down 3, you are obviously going to go for the TD much more often than if you're down 2 (see the Oregon St/Cal finish.)

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My 3% figure(for a touchdown, while playing for a field goal), unlike the last preliminary question I asked originally, did in fact assume that a field goal will only come back and tie. So it might be too low. And if it is high enough, it makes me wrong. That is one reason that there has to be a fairly small window of time left for the play to be considered. Enough time to get that touchdown if it is really needed, but not enough time to make a concerted effort for it if it is not.

Still the figures I postulated were so far in favor of the two pointer, that it would surprise me if the actual figures were enough off to always change the decision back to a one pointer.