bet or check on river? I have only A split pair on river, w Q kicker

[maverickai]

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (7.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??

What should I do? Post your thoughts, while I work out my math.

[sean c]

I don't understand your title to this post or why you are doing math. Bet the river collect money.

[mvoss]

Title doesn't make sense, river is an easy value bet.

[KitCloudkicker]

way to bet with nothing on two streets and then check when you get there.

you prob deserve consideration for

www.moneyhater.com

(btw, betting the flop is standard and the turn bet is meh, but you there is no reason whatsoever to check the river).

[maverickai]

I'll be assigning hands to villian, and see if it is worthwhie to bet or check. Here is what I did... could be lengthy:

Villian holds: AK
Possible of 4
I'm assigning 0.5 hand

Villian holds: KJ
Possible of 12
I'm assigning 6 hands

Villian holds: QJ
Possible of 9
I'm assigning 4.5 hands

Villian holds: KQ
Possible of 12
I'm assigning 8

Villian holds: AJ
Possible of 6
I'm assigning 4

Villian holds: TT, JJ
I'm assigning just 2 hands.

Total no. of hands: 0.5+6+4.5+8+4+2 = 25

Hands I beat on the river: 6+4.5 = 10.5
Hands I lose on the river: 14.5

If I bet,
BB folds if he's behind
BB raises if he's ahead, and I call

EV = (10.5/25)(7.7) + (14.5/25)(-2)
= 2.07

If I check,
BB checks if he's behind
BB bets if he's ahead, and I call

EV = (10.5/25)(7.7) + (14.5/25)(-1)
= 2.65

So looks like check/call is better?

[Smurph64]

Bet/call.

[Smurph64]

This isn't even a bet fold hand here. Its definitely bet/call.

Take a valium before you play, I thought I overthought hands. If the river was a king or a nine I check/fold. 7 down bet, everything else check/call.

[ckmo]

[ QUOTE ]
If the river was a king or a nine I check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't check fold a straight.....

I agree with Kit, You bet Ace high on the flop and the turn and suddenly don't like your hand for a bet on the river when you actually have a chance at winning money?

[Xylocain]

I bet this turn with over cards and a gutshot. River is between open fold and bet-call. In this hand you should probably open fold because I'm guessing you lost to KQ but your default play should be bet-call.

[Landonfan]

Good lord, bet.