AQ river and maybe preflop/flop/turn

milesdyson · #1 04-12-2007, 09:43 PM

Open raiser is a good TAG at Stars I think. Maybe I'm wrong because when I played this hand I thought I knew who he was, but I just checked my PT and I didn't have many hands on him. Whatever, his screen name was TedBroke.

Button is 29/20 4C35 who has played spewy before. However, I feel like he is playing pretty honest and possibly a bit weak right now. We played a hand earlier where he 3-bet my MP raise from the SB with 66. Flop 992 he bets, I call. Turn 8 he bets, I call. River 3 he checks. He would usually make this bet. He has the best hand ~100% of the time. Anyway I value bet my 44 and he called and I said "wow." He told me he was getting rocked tonight, so that's why I think he isn't messing around.

I do still think he 3-bets stuff like QJs, KJo, and 44/55 vs. the other TAG's CO open raise.

Anyway, should I fold preflop? Fold the flop not closing the action? Fold the turn? Call the river?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, Button bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Button raises, Hero calls, MP calls.

River: (12.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Button calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 15.20 BB

HOWMANY · #2 04-12-2007, 09:54 PM

If you keep folding these rivers you are going to have an infinite bet downswing. I would cap preflop, maybe opener will fold. I want to donk the river but I would probably just c/c because I play bad online.

jba · #3 04-12-2007, 09:57 PM

i dont see how you could ever be good on that river. if button paused my money is on him.

jba · #4 04-12-2007, 09:59 PM

ps: i think donking is definitely better than c/c because they will IMMEDIATELY put you on the nuts.

milesdyson · #5 04-12-2007, 10:04 PM

HOWMANY,

How do I beat MP here? I think I only ever win outright if he made a ridiculous stab with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and I win half the pot if he made the same dumb stab with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If he donks hands like this, why not donk with 16 combos of KQ as well? Otherwise, if he doesn't make these kinds of donks with draws, how can he not have me beaten? Am I supposed to put him on a bluff in that spot? Bet/call the turn and then donkbluff the river 3-way on a card that likely hits the third player?

Anyway, I do think I should have bet the river. MP can have QJ, Button can have KJ, QQ, KK, and I don't have to worry about folding the best hand to a raise (if either of them made me fold the best hand by raising a river donk after that turn action, I would gouge out my eyes so online poker wouldn't even matter anymore). So yeah, bet the river, but I checked and MP bet after donk/calling the turn. So I made the wrong first choice, but the question is about the second decision.

Infinte bet downswing here I come!

HOWMANY · #6 04-12-2007, 10:40 PM

I don't even bother trying to think about what he has once the pot is 13 bets and I have top pair good kicker on a board with no flush possible and only a 3 straight and to be honest I didn't even really look at the action when I replied, I just saw you had a good looking hand and it was 1 bet closing the action. His hand looks a lot like AT/AJ/KQ now that I go back to looking at it. That said I call anyway. You have top pair good kicker. I'm probably a bit of a showdown monkey but I don't really think this is showdown monkeyish. Like I said, I think the best play is to donk, but I play bad so I c/c.

duckman · #7 04-13-2007, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I do think I should have bet the river. MP can have QJ, Button can have KJ, QQ, KK, and I don't have to worry about folding the best hand to a raise (if either of them made me fold the best hand by raising a river donk after that turn action, I would gouge out my eyes so online poker wouldn't even matter anymore). So yeah, bet the river, but I checked and MP bet after donk/calling the turn. So I made the wrong first choice, but the question is about the second decision.

[/ QUOTE ] Well I think you just layed out the case for why you should call.
Its times like these that I look at tthe pot and say 15 BBs, and a lot of BS happens short handed so I call. No superfolds pls.

Oink · #8 04-13-2007, 05:20 AM

Miles

Seems like you already have all the answers and your river fold is prolly good. In this case it certainly was.

You know the players and you know best whether MP can have A9 or AQ in this spot. I think both of those hands would be silly played on the turn. But TAGs can be bad postflop too, so who knows..?

BTW, preflop is between a cap and a call. I want MP out but I also want to see if he caps. Usually I cap if MP is tight enough. Folding is out of the question.

Flop is close, partly because MP may raise behind and partly because you risk getting sucked into an expensive call on the turn, as happened.

All in all every street is close and its a crappy hand, but IMO you played it well.

Arenas · #9 05-29-2007, 08:40 AM

I came to this thread through SSSH digest and I have some comments. I would be pleased if someone could let me know whether I'm right or not?

I really don't like all "good laydown on the river" stuff. Getting more than 14-to-1 means that you have to win this hand only 7% of the time. And I think you will win more than that even in those scary situations.

Otherwise I would fold the flop vs. reasonable players but I'm almost always capping or calling with the intention to c/r the flop in the loose games I play.

I would sometimes fold on this flop when player(s) are acting behind me but I'm mostly raising cause there's a good chance to make MP fold, the pot is getting big and there's a good chance you're still the best. (MP could be easily on two overcards here and won't like to call 2 cold)

I would probably fold on the turn. Pot is big (and that's the most important in this hand) but I need more outs to call two cold here and a players is also acting behind me.

I'd just overcall on the river and never fold. Folding the river for one bet when closing the action in a big pot is a disaster even when I'm almost sure I'm beaten. I'm never folding for one bet here when getting more than 10-to-1 unless I missed my draw.

good varaince

Mandor_TFL · #10 05-29-2007, 12:58 PM

Yes I think this is a turn fold for sure due to bad reverse implied odds to hit our str8. Plus almost for sure one of our opponent's hands holds a king giving us at most 7 outs and 4 of those are possibly tainted giving flushes. River is crying call due to the incorrect turn call.