$3/$6 B&M face tough river decision

[Craggoo]

Its your typical super loose $3/$6 limit B&M game with 5+ limpers per hand for any amount of bets preflop. Im in the CO with 87 and know the person to my left is generally very tight and most likely wont play his button without some sort of premium holding. I limp with 87 with a few people in front of me in the pot already. Button folds, sb (Bob) completes, and BB checks. So a few of us to the flop. Sorry for no pretty graphics, maybe i'll edit it later so there are. Flop is T64. Checked around to me so I check. Nobody is folding any pair in this game so betting on the come seems kind of foolish. Turn is a K. Bob (very solid and semi-nitty player) now leads out and bets. There are 2 calls between Bob and I, I call. River is a 9 making the board T64K9. Bob instantly leads out and gets called all-in by someone (he had $5 left). I raise with my 2nd nut straight and without almost any hesitation Bob 3 bets me. Let me note, he is NEVER doing this with 2 pair, he is NEVER doing this with a set on a possible straight board; given these 2 pieces of information and the fact Bob is never getting out of line, must we pay off the last bet knowing theres about a 95% chance Bob has exactly QJ in this spot? Thanks
-Cragg

[Jaran]

I'm folding the turn and calling the river.

-J

[LukeSLTS]

I think you answered the question for yourself. If your read is that strong (95%) then you fold. There are roughly 13BB in the pot so if Bob will turn over QJ only 12 in 13 times you can call profitably. However, you say he never makes this river 3-bet with a set or two pair so that means that the rest of the time he has the same hand you do and you win only half the pot. This all adds up to make this an easy fold for you.

[TimovieMan]

I'd still bet the flop, you've got a double gutshot straight draw, so you have 8 outs. If you bet, and get another 5 callers, that's only +EV for you. Bet it for value!

As played: ALWAYS call the last bet!

Don't always assume the worst! And maybe he would have folded had you bet the flop, you never know. And still: the pot would have been bigger, so the crying call would be even more correct...

[scpi10]

Call the river. Is he the type of player to bet into the field with a draw in the turn?

[Craggoo]

Yes he does bet strong draws

[scpi10]

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet.

[Craggoo]

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet.

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I think you misread. He lead out on the river, I raised, and he 3 bet. You're suggessting capping second nut straight against a fairly solid regular?

[MacGuyV]

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Yes he does bet strong draws

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On the turn OOP into 4 calling stations? That's a sick read to know that he'll do that and never 3bet a set on a non 4straight/3flush board. It also makes him more of a donk than a nit.

[Craggoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd still bet the flop, you've got a double gutshot straight draw, so you have 8 outs. If you bet, and get another 5 callers, that's only +EV for you. Bet it for value!

As played: ALWAYS call the last bet!

Don't always assume the worst! And maybe he would have folded had you bet the flop, you never know. And still: the pot would have been bigger, so the crying call would be even more correct...

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I don't always assume the worst. If it had been anyone else like Mo, Walker, or any number of other "really bad" regulars at my casino this is an easy call and maybe even a cap. Given that its Bob who I consider to be semi-solid, I think even though the pot is fairly big, its an easy fold. I try not to get into that mindset that "its only 1 more bet to see it". Those crying calls that you make when you know you can't win add up a lot in live sessions where you see far fewer hands than you would multi-tabling online.