Combo Draw 180 bbs deep in 3bet pot.

[Panthro]

[ QUOTE ]
you bet the flop like you were supposed to, now fold like you're supposed to

[/ QUOTE ]

[Lordy]

Interresting spot, I'm gonna try to make some EV calcs (first time I do it for a shove rather than a call, so please correct me if something's wrong) :

EV of shoving :

Board: 7h 7d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.045% 39.00% 00.05% 7722 9.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 60.955% 60.91% 00.05% 12060 9.00 { QQ+, AdKd, AdQd }

Assuming his raising range = his calling range :

You invest 136.55 to win 136.55+(2*24.50)+32.50 = 218.05
218.05*0.39-136.55*0.61 = +1.744

So even if he calls 100% of the time, it's about break-even. If he folds just a small % of the time, it's a clear shove.

[tufat23]

[ QUOTE ]
Interresting spot, I'm gonna try to make some EV calcs (first time I do it for a shove rather than a call, so please correct me if something's wrong) :

EV of shoving :

Board: 7h 7d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.045% 39.00% 00.05% 7722 9.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 60.955% 60.91% 00.05% 12060 9.00 { QQ+, AdKd, AdQd }

Assuming his raising range = his calling range :

You invest 136.55 to win 136.55+(2*24.50)+32.50 = 218.05
218.05*0.39-136.55*0.61 = +1.744

So even if he calls 100% of the time, it's about break-even. If he folds just a small % of the time, it's a clear shove.

[/ QUOTE ]


if this is right, shove.

if not, u can call too actually

[wdead]

hero has pretty much NO fold equity.
shove though, because the equity due to you from the pot is positive.
i also check this flop alot, if he has air we take bet turn and win then, but if we get checkraised, we get in this spot where we have to shove with zero fold equity

[BlackAMEX]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh no way you can fold here, you have way more fold equity than you think, embrace the variance and shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

CATerp I would like to know why he should fold here. Even without FE, how is this not at least a decent push?

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
The vast majority of your value with combo draws comes from fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true, DUCY ?

[HiBaCHi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh no way you can fold here, you have way more fold equity than you think, embrace the variance and shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

CATerp I would like to know why he should fold here. Even without FE, how is this not at least a decent push?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would also like to see CATerp's answer

[HiBaCHi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The vast majority of your value with combo draws comes from fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true, DUCY ?

[/ QUOTE ]

elaborate on why you think his statement is false. i believe that it is true. all the times you ship the money in the pot w/ out showdown is why playing combo draws fast is profitable. w/ out FE you are just flipping 40/60 coins all day which is not going to be profitable in the long run.

[terp]

you're a dog to his range here and he only folds pure air getting 3:1. you can comment on his frequencies better than we can but i doubt at 100nl he shows up with that a ton, especially given the size of his flop raise.

edit: also not including various 7x (of which 76/75 is a decent chunk and have us drawing dead) is terrible this deep

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The vast majority of your value with combo draws comes from fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true, DUCY ?

[/ QUOTE ]

elaborate on why you think his statement is false. i believe that it is true. all the times you ship the money in the pot w/ out showdown is why playing combo draws fast is profitable. w/ out FE you are just flipping 40/60 coins all day which is not going to be profitable in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your equity is 40% based on your draw so there's no way the VAST MAJORITY is from fold equity. If you can get 11% equity from fold equity you're +EV (actually you don't even need that much because there's already money in the pot, maybe 5% FE is all you need).

Playing combo draws fast is +EV because you only need a *tiny* bit of fold equity.