Is it simply variance?

[phodphod]

Below I'm giving an update to my previous post. Since its no longer available I've copied it below before giving an update. I sincerely appreciate the comments it received.

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I just attempted to move up in limit with zero success and I would like some advice:

Played 8000 hands at micro 0.01/0.02 NL Hold'EM 6-max
VP$IP=26%
BB/100=23
Won$SD=57%

I actually played 1cent/2cent for 3 or 4 months before getting poker tracker so I don't have all my play databased. I won $75 on the above 8000 hands but made roughly $400 before I got PTracker playing same 6-max 1c/2c tables.

So I figured I would give 0.02/0.05 NL Hold'EM 6-max a shot.
4700 hands
VP$IP=26%
BB/100=(5) (negative 5)
Won$ at SD = 51%
Lost $24

So I have since dropped back down to regain some confidence but i'm curious about the drastic difference in the bottom line and if it may be just a bad run of cards.

I can provide other stats if that is helpful but looking at the ring game stat summaries they appear pretty comparable (although I'm pretty new to PTracker and all the stats.) I also felt like I was playing the same sort of game.

Should i give it more time at 2c/5c after regaining some confidence or do I need to change my game drastically before i try to move up again?

Thanks for any advice.

No need to reply saying I suck because I'm aware of that if I can't beat micro 2c/5c

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THE UPDATE:

i've been using PT w/ GT+ and while i'm still learning to use it, it has helped me avoid the rocks and raise the seats with very high VP$IP when they come into a hand particularly when multi-tabling when I can't always pay close enough attention (3 to 4 tables is my speed)

I recovered what I had lost at 2c/5c NL 6-max and I am now dead even with a total of 7300 hands played at that level.

I have since played 3100 hands at 5c/10c NL 6-max and have managed +2.9BB/100 so i'm ok with that.

My recent problem is back at 1c/2c NL 6-max where my dentist WAS getting angry with me since so much shuga (Joe H.) was being passed my way--relatively speaking, it is micro after all. Now over the last 50 sessions (5300 hands) i'm losing almost 8BB/100 (~$32...32x the min buyin, 5.5x the max buyin) and its getting to me. My VP$IP is 23% compared to table averages of 40% and higher with some players >70%...i figure when i do play a hand that my average hand strength should be greater than my opponent and I should be catching them in spots when I have stuff like AK or KQ vs their holding of KT or K9o and we flop top pair; but it seems they flop or river 2p or a weired flush or strt on me a lot or I miss the flop and they hit their T or 9.

I've had pkt AA 23 times, WtSD only 8x vs holdings where I was on average almost an 85% preflop favorite but I realized only 75% W$SD. I've had pkt KK 26 times, WtSD only 11x vs holdings where I was on average a 76% preflop favorite but I only realized 63% W$SD; on the 4 KK hands I lost I was on average a 86% preflop favorite vs (J3o, 88, K2s, 93o). I dont even want to talk about QQ.

Regarding a flopped 4 flush or 4 strt and completing...i'm not sure how many draws one could miss (current PT version can't filter for this as far as i know) but i guess its possible to never complete a draw ever again; i know i should expect to miss 7 outta 10 or so but when i miss 20 or 30 in a row (including strt+flush draw spots) it gets really frustrating.

And then it feels like i'm running in a very weird card space where I wont flop a pair or even a draw for a long long time (30 to 40 hands)and if i do its bottom pair facing a 3 strt + 3 flush textured board; then many more blank hands until BAM, flop a house and get no action if i bet out and no action if i slow play to allow someone to catch something, then many many hands of nothing until i flop top set vs my opponents nut strt, or set over set. And during this period of flopping nothing i pick up pkt AA or KK and lose more often than i think i should.

HOW DO YOU DEAL/HANDLE THE COLD SPELLS WHEN IT SEEMS LIKE NOTHING GOES RIGHT WITH THE BIG POTS?

I tried a few $5 SNG tournaments since 1c/2c rings where not working for me...i swear the tourney card server runs different than the ring game server; as i sit there and fold a lot in the early going playing 10 to 15% of hands i watch as my opponents continually make "made" 5 card hand after 5 card hand (strts, flushes, houses) and pick up seeming endless supplies of pkt AA, KK, QQ while if i pick up K8s its a miracle. I see the showdowns and see if I didn't muck preflop if i would have won a hand and I never seem to be delt a winning hand. It also seems like there is always one golden seat that has the best hand at showdown regardless of what they play yet if i play my overpair to the flop, or play my flopped set, i'm beat every time.

I am a losing tourny player so far after 40 tournaments i'm -23% ROI.

Despite my rantings on my low limit ring play i've not had a losing month yet but riding out the cold spells is really tuff for me. Its not the $ as i can afford to risk and lose 100x more without any problem, its just like a big game to me trying to grow the roll.

Thanks for listening to my frustration; I know its difficult to comment without specific hand postings and who really cares about micro play anyway but I do know if I can't beat micro i had better not move too far up and I dislike prolonged negatively sloped sections in my BR vs time plots.