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#1
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HU SNG Win Rate\'s
What is the optimal win rate for a HU SNG player in your opionion. I understand as you move up in stakes and depending on if you play Turbo or Non Turbo, it will differentiate. What would an optimal win rate be for $20, $30, $50, and $100 HU SNGs on Pokerstars (NON TURBO).
Recently, I moved up to the $20 and $30 HU SNG's, and for some reason I have a win rate of 70.97% out of a total of 155 games (110/155). This could either be I am running real good or I am getting lucky, but I was wondering when could I feel comfortable in saying I am an "X" win rate player. I personally am planning on playing 500 games and then looking back at my win rate, but even then I won't really be certain of my true win rate as variance will haunt me sooner or later. Thank you for your comments. Goodluck at the tables, -- MxGucci |
#2
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Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
An optimal win rate would be 100% but I guess anything over 52.5% is good. Don't get bogged down thinking about win rates, play well and make good decisions and the rest will follow.
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#3
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Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
I found this in the faq, it should help a little
Jay Shark on how you know if you're a winning player |
#4
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Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
Thanks!
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#5
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Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
Using the marginal of error formula , we can say the following :
Solving for 1/(M.O.E)^2 = N , where N is the total number of games played . In this case , you've played 155 games with a sample win-rate of 70.97% . So at two standard deviations from the mean(or with 95% confidence) , you're true win rate is M.O.E=sqrt(1/155) and so your margin of error is 8.03% . So with 95% confidence we can say that your win-rate is in between [70.97%-8.03%,70.97% + 8.03%] or [62.94%,79%] |
#6
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Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
Thank you Jay for taking the time to do that calculation for me. I love your formula though! Great stuff.
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#7
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Re: HU SNG Win Rate\'s
You are an excellent player. You shouldn't worry too much about win rates, IMO. It is not like you are skating on the edge of a cliff.
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