Flop bet

[Coelacanth]

Very good live 40 game. Blinds are decent, everyone else is some form of bad, mostly tending towards loose passive with a maniac or two sprinkled in. UTG limps. I limp next in with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Everyone else limps. 9 handed to the flop of Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and I bet. A winning player was watching this hand and said he never bets this flop, I admit I didn't give it a huge amount of thought at the time but I'm inclined to bet this very often. He disagrees, but we play pretty differently (I splash around a fair bit more than he does). Family pots are vanishingly rare in this game, so it's not a situation that comes up a lot. Anyways, what's your preferred flop line and why?

[John Ryan]

With five players left to act behind, and only a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw, with the potential of drawing dead/nearly dead, I don't see what the bet gains. Maybe a couple of positions later, but I don't like to make this bet with so many players left to act, especially if you describe a couple as maniacs.

[andyfox]

It does sound like a very good game.

[Barry]

[ QUOTE ]
It does sound like a very good game.

[/ QUOTE ]

When KTs leads into the entire field, it is a good game.

What are you trying to accomplish? Did you expect that you would take it down on the flop? Try to only pay 1 bet to see the turn? With 9 folks including a couple of maniacs seeing the flop don't you think that someone has to have a Q? You think they are folding? JT isn't folding, which kills your K if magically no one has a Q. QJ kills your gutter. With all those folks in what are the chances that you will only have to pay one bet.

Check and peel getting good odds and see if you improve, but bet?????

[Coelacanth]

I get about a 23% chance that there are no queens in the 16 cards out against me given random hands. Someone might want to check my math on that. You can shade that down a bit given that a couple of the players are at least kind of selective and there's some worry about 99 as well, but I'd say a worst case scenario is that 85% of the time the field has a Q or better.

That said, I'd really like someone behind me to raise. Ideally with a 9 or worse, but if they have a Q, so be it.

Also, I didn't mention it because I don't think it matters much, but the biggest maniac is very unlikely to have a Q. From what I'd seen at that point, I'm pretty sure he was raising preflop with any single paint/any 2 suited.

Edited to add that the worst case scenario isn't very likely given the 3 checks in front of me. UTG would bet a queen, SB and BB would bet a queen at least some portion of the time.

[Hass]

I like check folding this flop personaly. I bet flops pretty light most of the time but you really don't have any kind of a hand here.

[Barry]

75-85% chance that someone has a Q, yet you still argue for betting the flop and say "so be it"? Whatever...
I still agree that it is a good game and you being in it would be a big part of it.