How can you not go busto? - Page 3

xxx · #21 08-04-2007, 12:14 PM

xxx · #22 08-04-2007, 12:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
think bill gates could go busto playing poker?

didn't think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bankroll is money dedicated to poker. In order to answer the question, you would have to know how much money Bill has dedicated to poker, his winrate, and standard deviation.

1C5 · #23 08-04-2007, 02:01 PM

Well assuming he plays low limits which is 3/6 or something as he has been known to do and if you give him a poker bankroll of what, .05% of his net worth, I get a 0.00% ROR using that calculator.

It is silly to say the chance of going busto is never 0. If someone only plays 1 cent 2 cent tables for fun and has a huge bankroll, how is it possible to go busto?

ment52 · #24 08-04-2007, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

It is silly to say the chance of going busto is never 0. If someone only plays 1 cent 2 cent tables for fun and has a huge bankroll, how is it possible to go busto?

[/ QUOTE ]
Megatilt?

xxx · #25 08-04-2007, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

It is silly to say the chance of going busto is never 0. If someone only plays 1 cent 2 cent tables for fun and has a huge bankroll, how is it possible to go busto?

[/ QUOTE ]
Megatilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poor game selection?

antisocialgrace · #26 08-04-2007, 03:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think 20 buy-ins is prob OK if you play only 1, or at most 2 tables. But you'd definitely want to set a stop loss of maybe 6 or 7 buyins and move down immediately if you hit that point.

If you are multi-tabling I think you need more, cos you can drop 5 or more buy-ins in 10 minutes if you're unlucky.

For a solid multi-tabler, I think having 30 buy-ins is good, if you drop to 20 then drop down a limit til you grind it back up.

If you do that, you're chance of going busto is 0

The secret to never going busto is having the discipline to drop down when you hit your stop loss. If you haven't got that self discipline, then there is always going to be a risk of busting.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are we calculating though .. is the buyin the amount at one table or all five? If I have 1k and I'm 5-tabling $10 buyins do I have 100 buyins or 20 buyins?

Obviously the risk of losing five buyins (one table calculation) is significantly higher multi-tabling, but for a winning player the +EV is vastly increased also.

If we calculate the ratio as the total amount of all buyins divided by roll I think the number has to be adjusted to reflect the decrease in variance and volatility multi-tabling. In other words if a good player goes on a downswing 5-tabling $10 buyins but his roll is $1k, even if he loses everything on 5 tables (extremely unlikely) he's still only down 1 buyin. It's much more likely that someone playing 1 $50 table would bust.

Mike Haven · #27 08-04-2007, 04:34 PM

If you play one hand at five tables at once isn't it exactly the same as playing five hands at one table, only quicker? So you have 100BI in your example.

antisocialgrace · #28 08-04-2007, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you play one hand at five tables at once isn't it exactly the same as playing five hands at one table, only quicker? So you have 100BI in your example.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you're right. You do have to discount for some things though, such as decreased performance due to a division of your mental resources. Of course if you're a winning player the roll should build-up pretty quick and the decrease in variance should compensate somewhat.

Piemaster · #29 08-04-2007, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
'The point is that if you are a basic winning player, playing against the same opposition, then it can be calculated, before you start playing, that you are very unlikely to go busto if you have 20BI.'

I recall that Brian Townsend (far better than a basic winning player) went on a 20BI downswing at Crypto £80/160 (dumping $320,000) when working his way up.

I had a 28 buy-in downswing in my first 6 months of playing, and have had a 15 BI downswing as recently as May, and I pretty much fit the 'basic winning player' category exactly. The issue of course is that after a downswing of, say 8BI's, which is trivially likely at some point, your A game is often pretty much gone and tilting off another few BI's is pretty easy. Then if you only had 20BI's to start you're in busto range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fairly common misunderstanding.

The math that shows that you are very unlikely to go bust with a 20BI bankroll assumes that you are starting with 20BI and playing that limit to infinity, never withdrawing and never moving up. It doesn't mean that you are very unlikely to have a 20BI downswing, it means that you are unlikely to have a 20BI downswing straight away. If you are a winning player, the chances are that by the time you have your 20BI downswing, you will have more than 20BI in your account.

For reference, if you have a 20BI bankroll and withdraw down to 20BI at the end of every day when you make money, your chance of going busto at some stage is almost 100%.

antisocialgrace · #30 08-04-2007, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
'The point is that if you are a basic winning player, playing against the same opposition, then it can be calculated, before you start playing, that you are very unlikely to go busto if you have 20BI.'

I recall that Brian Townsend (far better than a basic winning player) went on a 20BI downswing at Crypto £80/160 (dumping $320,000) when working his way up.

I had a 28 buy-in downswing in my first 6 months of playing, and have had a 15 BI downswing as recently as May, and I pretty much fit the 'basic winning player' category exactly. The issue of course is that after a downswing of, say 8BI's, which is trivially likely at some point, your A game is often pretty much gone and tilting off another few BI's is pretty easy. Then if you only had 20BI's to start you're in busto range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fairly common misunderstanding.

The math that shows that you are very unlikely to go bust with a 20BI bankroll assumes that you are starting with 20BI and playing that limit to infinity, never withdrawing and never moving up. It doesn't mean that you are very unlikely to have a 20BI downswing, it means that you are unlikely to have a 20BI downswing straight away. If you are a winning player, the chances are that by the time you have your 20BI downswing, you will have more than 20BI in your account.

For reference, if you have a 20BI bankroll and withdraw down to 20BI at the end of every day when you make money, your chance of going busto at some stage is almost 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't sound right. As long as you're not withdrawing below 20 buyins I would think you'd be fine (a good player). I suppose over a lifetime even a good player playing very high volume could hit that kind of variance, but it seems unlikely.