Clev to win AFCN

[Matt24]

[ QUOTE ]
Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF



[/ QUOTE ]

the browns will be dogs at pitt, at balt, at arizona, at jets, at cincy for sure.

[RitmoEnElCaos]

I'm not a huge fan of their method, but playoffstatus.com has Cleveland at about 17% to win the division.

Pitt 62%
Cle 17%
Bal 15%
Cin 4%

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

[shipitkthx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF



[/ QUOTE ]

the browns will be dogs at pitt, at balt, at arizona, at jets, at cincy for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dogs against Balt and NYJ?? The Browns crushed the Ravens in the first matchup and the Jets are 1-6...wtf am I missing?

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to start, you have them -6 vs. Balt in Pitt and -2 @ Balt which makes no sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, I may be doing this wrong, but Pitt vs. Balt at neutral field, I'd say Pitt -4. Thusly, at home, Pitt -6. At Balt, Pitt -2. I am somewhat new to sports betting, so if I've done something wrong, please tell me.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you know, a better way of making this bet might just to bet the money line when Cle plays at Pitt. You kinda NEED that win anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your lines for Pittsburgh look WAY off on first look. -7 @NE?!?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I said Cle +7 at NE. It might be that you did not know that I was setting every line from the P.O.V. of Cle or that the centering of the text screwed you up, but it appears to me that I posted that I thought that the line might be cle +7 @NE. Thinking about it, it's probable that that line is far to soft for Cle. Given that Was is a 17 point dog, shouldn't Cle be a 27 point dog? IMHO, Was is significantly better than Cle, of course I don't think that Was is a 17pt dog, either. I don't know why I'm not betting on Was this weekend. This may need to be rectified. However, shall I recorrect the Cle @NE line to -14? This only makes our heroes line slightly worse. Going from a 4:1 dog to a 10:1 dog doesn't change the season expectation all that much.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF



[/ QUOTE ]

the browns will be dogs at pitt, at balt, at arizona, at jets, at cincy for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dogs against Balt and NYJ?? The Browns crushed the Ravens in the first matchup and the Jets are 1-6...wtf am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the popular concensus is that the Browns are inferior to the Ravens. One game does not change this. That the Browns beat the Ravens SHOULDN'T change one's expectation for future games btwn the two. It is just one game. As for being dogs at the Jets, it goes to your evaluation of the two teams. Before the season, I bet real monies that the Browns were a 7-win team. However, this still allowed for them to be pretty terrible. To get 7 wins in the AFC isn't impressive, but it ain't bad. The NYJ are not a horrible team. Sure, they are 1-6 right now, but it isn't that far from being 3-4 or even 4-3. Evaluating these two teams, can you really say that the Browns are SO much better than the NYJ that they should be favored in New Jersey?

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a huge fan of their method, but playoffstatus.com has Cleveland at about 17% to win the division.

Pitt 62%
Cle 17%
Bal 15%
Cin 4%

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

[/ QUOTE ]

So the Chiefs = 56% chance of playoffs and either the Broncs or the charge reach a total of 59% (assuming there is no crossover). I don't buy it.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF



[/ QUOTE ]

the browns will be dogs at pitt, at balt, at arizona, at jets, at cincy for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, maybe, maybe, not a chance, not if the Bengals keep playing as bad as they have.

[ QUOTE ]
Look, I may be doing this wrong, but Pitt vs. Balt at neutral field, I'd say Pitt -4. Thusly, at home, Pitt -6. At Balt, Pitt -2. I am somewhat new to sports betting, so if I've done something wrong, please tell me.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 points for home field, so if you have Pitt -4 neutral, it's -7 @ Pitt and -1 @ Balt.

You also didn't answer the question...what % do you think the Browns are to win the division?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure I said Cle +7 at NE. It might be that you did not know that I was setting every line from the P.O.V. of Cle or that the centering of the text screwed you up, but it appears to me that I posted that I thought that the line might be cle +7 @NE.

[/ QUOTE ]

You were talking about Pitt. Clev already lost to NE and I bought them at +17 so Clev +7 @ NE is WAY off.

- C -

[NoChance]

Here are the current odds for for everything according to DVOA .

AFC North
Team Rec DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT
PIT 4-2 23.9% 10.3 1.9% 9.1% 46.3% 18.9% 2.2% 5.2% 76.2% 11.0% 7.5% 83.7%
BAL 4-3 4.1% 8.0 0.0% 0.7% 5.6% 4.1% 2.6% 6.0% 10.6% 0.8% 8.6% 19.3%
CLE 3-3 -4.3% 7.8 0.0% 0.1% 4.6% 3.6% 2.8% 7.7% 8.4% 0.1% 10.6% 19.0%
CIN 2-4 -3.1% 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.3% 0.9% 4.2% 4.7% 0.0% 5.1% 9.8%

Cleveland is listed at 8.4% here.

**Interestingly enough, in case anyone is wondering, it also shows NE odds at 6.3% to go undefeated and Ind odds at 2.4% to go undeafeated.

[NajdorfDefense]

So, like -400 against NE going 16-0 is good, right?