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#21
01-13-2007, 11:07 PM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
I'm pretty sure this is huge +EV for the player. Post-Oak's calculations are pertinent to the chance he's up >400 at the end. The problem under consideration is basically like a risk of ruin problem in reverse; he just has to hit +400 once. Somebody better at stat (or less stoned) than me could probably do the calcs. Lets assume ev 5PTBB/100 (very very conservative for a 10/20 player at .5/1) stdev 55PTBB/100 (this is my actual stat, in bigger games, according to PT, does this sound about right?), 70 hands/tablehour = 1750 hands.
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#22
01-14-2007, 02:40 AM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
There are other factors to consider. Ideally I think you'd play ultra tight at the start of the match, and just hope the cards go your way to get to 4 buyins. If they haven't by the very end, I'd assume you'd have a deep stack on one of the tables, so you could just push every hand against another deep stack and you might make up for it.
I think the bet is +EV for smaller amounts of money, because the urge to donk it off at the lower stakes will be there for most high limit players. Last night my roommate got stuck $800 and gave up about 3 hours into it, figuring he'd lose more than the $400 in pushing to try to get it back. Trust me when I say this was the most entertaining poker bet I've ever had. Trash talking and cheering every turn of the card was a riot. We then proceeded to play $100 heads up freezeouts where the loser had to take a shot of the winner's choice, proceeded by high stakes beer pong.
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#24
01-14-2007, 03:34 AM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
I'd take this bet for anywhere from $10-40
leaning toward $40.
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#25
01-14-2007, 03:53 AM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
[ QUOTE ]
Ill bet any amount you want (4k minimum-25k max) that I can do this [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Worst bet ever. Any competent HSNL player can easily do this without even focusing. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im sure ill catch some sort of + variance by sheer fluke. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i agree with ahnuld, i could do this with my eyes closed [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure this is huge +EV for the player. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'd take this bet for anywhere from $10k-40k [/ QUOTE ] No takers at $550? I guess you guys are just given to hyperbole.
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#27
01-14-2007, 04:07 AM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure I take for 550. Can I do some math in the morning and get back to you? [/ QUOTE ] OK, but then you can't expect to hold me to automatically accepting. In other words, I may have some new parameters by morning. It would be kind of scary if you came back in the morning itching to bet, when you haven't even shown a willingness to gamble on a proposition which you estimate to be ++EV, but are not 100% sure.
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#28
01-14-2007, 04:19 AM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure I take for 550. Can I do some math in the morning and get back to you? [/ QUOTE ] OK, but then you can't expect to hold me to automatically accepting. In other words, I may have some new parameters by morning. It would be kind of scary if you came back in the morning itching to bet, when you haven't even shown a willingness to gamble on a proposition which you estimate to be ++EV, but are not 100% sure. [/ QUOTE ] perfectly fair :-)
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#30
01-14-2007, 11:02 AM
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Re: HSNL prop bet
My advice is to stay away from these 'prop' bets and to focus on playing cards. Same goes for the table games. You have to develop a tunnel vision and not be tempted by them. All the best players know this. When you walk into the casino head on straight past these tables and don't be tempted by sports betting either.
I remember in the 1970s a man called Little Red Ashey who was a helluva player back then. But he got into Sports betting and that did for him. Same goes with Stu Ungar who was the greatest cards player who ever lived. he died without a dollar to his name.
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