5/10, Easy Overcall?

Tokyo!! · #1 06-22-2007, 12:11 AM

SB is a 22.7/17.1/2.65 regular. He's allright, pretty straight forward. MP is a 57.8/18/1.27 station. How often does he bet twice into a multiway pot with hands I beat (and he likely knows the fish is calling if he has at least TP)?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($1067)
SB ($2070)
BB ($3045)
UTG ($1926)
MP ($4745.10)
Hero ($2015)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $10, Hero raises to $40, Button calls $40, SB calls $35, 1 fold, MP calls $30.

Flop: ($170) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($170) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $111, MP calls $111, Hero calls $111, Button folds.

River: ($503) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $300, MP calls $300, Hero ??

Final Pot: $1103

schwza · #2 06-22-2007, 12:49 AM

but on the flip side, the main villain can figure you for a missed draw and be vbetting fairly light vs the fish. he might even see a bet with 2 pair as a 2-way bet to fold you out and vbet vs villain. you also have fishy beat close to 100% here, so it's not as scary as a lot of oovercalls.

you're going to usually lose, but the pot odds are pretty damn good.

FireStorm · #3 06-22-2007, 01:04 AM

I don't like this spot very much at all, I really can't see the regular having a worse hand than you often enough to warrant a call. He has to be concerned after two of you call 2/3 pot from him on the turn. SB may have a hand like KdJd. Even if he is occasionally betting light due to the station, you probably lose here pretty often.

schwza · #4 06-22-2007, 01:09 AM

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I don't like this spot very much at all, I really can't see the regular having a worse hand than you often enough to warrant a call. He has to be concerned after two of you call 2/3 pot from him on the turn. SB may have a hand like KdJd. Even if he is occasionally betting light due to the station, you probably lose here pretty often.

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come on, the fish raises any flush.

FireStorm · #5 06-22-2007, 01:14 AM

Yes, the fish does, however most of my post discussed the probability of the SB, the 22/17 regular, having a flush. I can't imagine how the "straightforward" regular who called $40 preflop has two pair on a board of Q7348?

Eagles · #6 06-22-2007, 01:15 AM

I can't imagine folding here and raising seems like a massive spew.`

technologic · #7 06-22-2007, 01:17 AM

i think it's very close since you only have to be good 22% of the time to make it neutral EV

that being said, i don't see what hand villain has that you can beat other than a weirdly played AQ or a slowplayed 33.

Tokyo!! · #8 06-22-2007, 01:17 AM

i doubt very much the reg has 2 pair here. maybe 43s. thats about it. the fish never has a flush here, likely has some Qx , 99-JJ, or 2pair.

i would think 56 and sets are also in the reg's range.

Tokyo!! · #9 06-22-2007, 01:17 AM

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I can't imagine folding here and raising seems like a massive spew.`

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im definitely not raising.

Eagles · #10 06-22-2007, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine folding here and raising seems like a massive spew.`

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im definitely not raising.

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I agree because its terrible but you have a set and you need to be good like one in 5 times.`