5/10 NL, trips facing river c/r

[mikeJ]

When villain calls, he has Qx, 55, or some sickass float where he's intending to bluff later. For villain to be on a bluff, villain requires a sick sick read on you, or he needs to be a spewy villain. Neither seem applicable. So, I'm inclined to say villain has exactly 55 or Q9-AQ, with it being more likely that the Qs are suited.

Against that range for villain, I like your turn check for pot control, if you're facing 55, you also have 7 outs to the winner. It would be a shame to get c/r'd on the turn if villain was holding 55. If you're against a lower trip Qs, it's only drawing to 6 chop outs and 3 winners. If you're against QT, you have 3 outs.

Now, when you check the turn, you underrep your hand range somewhat, because opponents would expect you to bet trips again. I could easily see someone thinking your hand looks like 66-99/JJ/air when you check behind on turn.

I mention that your hand is underrepped, because it may cause villain to mistakenly value c/r w/ trip Qs along w/ value-raising QT/55. You're getting like 2 to 1. I really think the good/decent players will not mistakenly value c/r that big w/ those trip Qs, so I'm going to vote for fold, and expect villain's most likely holding to be QT, reason being that he just coldcalled the flop, and you can definitely make a case that 55 should 3 bet the flop.

Do you guys think my analysis is too specific?

[Tokyo!!]

First of all, anyone stating that air might be in his range is nuts. If he is crazy enough to try some sick bluff here with nothing then he wins the pot every time.

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also, why no reraise preflop here, seems like a pretty good spot for it?

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I agree it probably was. I probably didn't because the unknown just sat and raised his first hand, and I tend to give unknowns credit until the show reasonably otherwise. A 3-bet here is probably best.

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The other time he 3bet KsJs from the button vs a solid reg, then c-bet on the AsQsQd flop and called the c/r allin getting like 1.8 to 1 or so.

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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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That's you? That was pretty brutal.


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I didn't "know" who he was at the time, but I did recognize his SN as somewhat of a regular. I only watch $5/$10 occasionally, but don't play it like ever. But I was pretty sure I had seen his name before in the small amount of time I've watched the game. I play almost exclusively $2/$4 and $3/$6 and was taking a little shot at $5/$10 tonight because I've been running pretty well this month.

I'm not gonna say what I had, but I think checking the turn here against me was a mistake. Although I think T, J, and K are the worst turn cards, the ten is the least severe of them.


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Boo, you're going to come on here and discuss a hand and not say what you had? Weaksauce. I definitely disagree with the turn check. If you had air gj, but imo your range is 55 or Qx. The only hands that reasonably could play similarly and pay off are KQ and maybe QJ depending on whether you give me respect or not. I felt a turn c/r was extremely likely given flop action, and it would put me to a tough decision. Checking turn gives me a free shot to improve if I'm behind, or gives KQ/QJ a better chance at paying off a river bet.

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When villain calls, he has Qx, 55, or some sickass float where he's intending to bluff later. For villain to be on a bluff, villain requires a sick sick read on you, or he needs to be a spewy villain. Neither seem applicable. So, I'm inclined to say villain has exactly 55 or Q9-AQ, with it being more likely that the Qs are suited.

Against that range for villain, I like your turn check for pot control, if you're facing 55, you also have 7 outs to the winner. It would be a shame to get c/r'd on the turn if villain was holding 55. If you're against a lower trip Qs, it's only drawing to 6 chop outs and 3 winners. If you're against QT, you have 3 outs.

Now, when you check the turn, you underrep your hand range somewhat, because opponents would expect you to bet trips again. I could easily see someone thinking your hand looks like 66-99/JJ/air when you check behind on turn.

I mention that your hand is underrepped, because it may cause villain to mistakenly value c/r w/ trip Qs along w/ value-raising QT/55. You're getting like 2 to 1. I really think the good/decent players will not mistakenly value c/r that big w/ those trip Qs, so I'm going to vote for fold, and expect villain's most likely holding to be QT, reason being that he just coldcalled the flop, and you can definitely make a case that 55 should 3 bet the flop.

Do you guys think my analysis is too specific?

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I like your analysis alot and it matched my thinking pretty well. However, a couple points. I don't think Xaston views my hand here as 66-99/JJ/air too much because he can't expect me to bet them on the river after his flop cold call. The other point is that you said 'mistakenly value c/r that big.' I dunno about that either, that is possible since he enjoys making large overbets and getting his stack in the middle. Again, I don't know how much of his range I'm good against though.

Basically to add to what others has said. When I raised the flop and he cold called, I think he knew that I knew his hand was strong. When I checked the turn, he probably guessed it was likely due to his flop strength. I thought then that he figured out that if he checked the river again, I would have to value bet my trips against his supposed weaker Qx, allowing him to c/r. So basically I think he knows that I will have to v-bet the river (although I seriously, seriously considered checking at the time, I just couldn't do it), so he can c/r. I don't think he played this hand to maximize value, but it did maximize that 1% or so he is bluffing or misclicked the flop :P.

[MTBlue]

Funny thing about this hand is that a ballsy opponent could bluff the river really easily. You checked the turn for pot control, so you obviously don't want to put you whole stack in the middle. So when you bet the river a ballsy villain could shove with any two cards.

That being said I don't know what Xaston gets to the river with you that you beat except KQ and QJ and turning those hands into a bluff is sick. This isn't Jason Strasser we are talking about, its a 2/4 player taking a shot I lean toward a fold.

[SuperPokerJedi]

River raise says you are beat! How likely is it that trip Q's call from weaker opponents? Fold is good!