TD27: Check through to freeze/induce action?

2461Badugi · #1 12-20-2006, 12:05 PM

I've played a bunch with BB before and have never seen him break or fold a pat despite some of the most obvious situations. That kind of swung me to value-betting here, but in retrospect I think I probably both freeze them and get a raise in on the end if I check. CO really likes to draw to straights so I'm not very worried about him. Thoughts?

Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($15/$30) (converter)

SB ($405), Seat 5
BB ($487.50), Seat 1
UTG ($2299.50), Seat 2
CO ($1298), Seat 3
Hero ($1039), Seat 4

Button at Seat 4.
SB posts $10. BB posts $15.

Hand: [7h Kd Jd 5s 2c]

Round 1: (1.67 SB)

UTG folds. CO raises. Hero raises. SB folds. BB raises. CO calls. Hero calls. 
BB takes 1. CO takes 1. Hero discards Kd Jd.

Hand: [7h 5s 2c 6d 4d]

Round 2: (12.67 SB)

BB bets. CO raises. Hero raises. BB raises. CO calls. Hero calls. 
BB stands pat. CO stands pat. Hero stands pat.

Hand: [7h 5s 2c 6d 4d]

Round 3: (12.33 BB)

BB checks. CO checks. Hero bets.

DeathDonkey · #2 12-21-2006, 10:39 AM

Doing anything besides what you did here would be insane. You have a 7 and they checked to you. Worry about what they do after you bet. Checking through here and raising the river is FPS.

-DeathDonkey

HOWMANY · #3 12-21-2006, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Worry about what they do after you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chris Daddy Cool · #4 12-22-2006, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Doing anything besides what you did here would be insane. You have a 7 and they checked to you. Worry about what they do after you bet. Checking through here and raising the river is FPS.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

to add:
i don't even understand why you would consider this line since at most it nets you the same amount of bets anyways IF they decide to bet into you anyways. and what if it was the first guy who checks and then the second guy who bets. a raise here may shut out the first guy completely netting you even less.

MarkGritter · #5 12-22-2006, 05:15 PM

I believe Badugi is suggesting that his bet will induce a break and put the 12 big bets already in the pot at risk. Anybody who calls his bet will be getting 13:1, enough to break an 85 or 86 and draw to a three-outer in the 30ish-card stub... heck, if Villain figures his implied odds are higher he can probably draw to two outs! An 87 can certainly break.

I think there are four factors, though, that would tend to push me toward a bet here:

1) There are two players still involved, not just one. So the potential reward for betting is doubled.

2) A player with a breakable 87 is probably breaking anyway, and a player with a smooth 86/85 will probably go to showdown (or fold) without breaking. A player trying to make a play with a 97 is certainly breaking or folding.

3) A player may incorrectly fold instead of calling and drawing, so your hand gets protected anyway (because he won't know you have a rough 7 and his draw is live.)

4) You are in last position, so if you were really as weak as you are trying to pretend to be, you would have broken already.

The pot is extremely large, so it is worth thinking of nonobvious ways to win it--- the 2-4 possible bets Hero gets by betting may not be as important as the 12 bets already in the pot. But I don't think checking to freeze is effective here.

2461Badugi · #6 12-22-2006, 06:00 PM

I think you're giving Stars players too much credit. Remember these are the same guys who will blithely bet nines into a freeze because calling and standing pat = weakness.

In any case, I think I see a more interesting concept buried in here, of a different sort of protected pot. Whether or not I bet here, there's tremendously more pressure on BB to break than there would be in a headsup situation. And if he doesn't, that pressure is transferred to CO.

I think figuring out how much a bet changes that is important, even if we can restrict the answer to "not much," which I'm not entirely convinced of.