It's Been A Whlie : 98s in CO

[Xhad]

5.5-6.25 outs on the flop? We're facing 2 cold against "typical" players in a raised pot with an over on board and we're giving that much credit to pair outs? I was thinking 5 is on the generous side.

GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

[James.]

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for me, this is influenced by more than just the free card possibility. since this is a nice sized pot and with a draw to the nuts/poss. flush it's in our best interest to continue if we don't hit/pickup more of a draw on the turn.

this becomes more difficult to do if our opponents start to get aggressive on fourth street(it also hurts implied odds). if they're putting in action on this board, they have made hands. a majority of those made hands are one pair type hands(of course the less mathematically likely sets/two pair combos must be accounted for as well).

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So, you're saying that, you put in an extra bet as a 10:1 underdog on the flop, end up making a marginal call on the turn anyway and you think this is profitable for you?

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there are 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] left in the deck. with 47 unseen cards, that means a pretty significant amount of the time(~21%)another one comes on the turn. if it goes bet/raise we're stuck with paying at least two big bets to draw to our flush.

another % of the time we get to the river for putting in that extra sb. can't argue with that being a huge coup.

downsides include the fact it opens up the chance of being capped on the flop, bloats the pot so that we are often forced to draw at a hand as weak as our gutter on the turn, and(as someone pointed out) it really screws up our effective odds.

even so, us being the PFR and the fact that i think their holdings are weighted towards one pair hands should increase the frequency that our flop 3bet succeeds in what we want it to do.

[James.]

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So, you're saying that, you put in an extra bet as a 10:1 underdog on the flop, end up making a marginal call on the turn anyway and you think this is profitable for you?

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To all:

Estimate hero's outs on the flop. Don't do math, just make up a number on the spot.

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~5.75

[GuyOnTilt]

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GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

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~17.2/12.8

[GuyOnTilt]

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If you aren't going to play that hand in that spot, why are you even at a poker table?"

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I think I remember Clarkmeister saying that in a thread, is the the wise man you are referring too?

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It is indeed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Rico Suave]

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To all:

Estimate hero's outs on the flop. Don't do math, just make up a number on the spot.

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5

[Xhad]

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GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

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~17.2/12.8

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o_O Now I'm really curious as to what I play and you don't (as the 45s isn't even an autoplay for me here and apparently I'm looser overall than you). At first I thought it might be tighter games but then I remembered last time I played online regularly was like 5/10 stars pre-UIGEA. Although this is probably a topic for its own thread.

[One Outer]

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GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

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~17.2/12.8

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o_O Now I'm really curious as to what I play and you don't (as the 45s isn't even an autoplay for me here and apparently I'm looser overall than you). At first I thought it might be tighter games but then I remembered last time I played online regularly was like 5/10 stars pre-UIGEA. Although this is probably a topic for its own thread.

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Start it. That would be an interesting thread.