2/5 NL - flopped baby flush, turn decision to maximize EV?

[CarlSpackler]

Live 2/5 NL - 10 players

I have $555, and villain has me covered by over 5x.

After 3 early limpers, I limp from the button w/ 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB completes, and villain in BB checks. There's $30 in the pot.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

First player checks, then villain bets $30, and everyone folds to me. I raise to $100. SB folds and it's back on villain. He hesitates for a while contemplating a call. I have a good read on him and know he doesn't have a flush. He's been chasing draws all night and has had much success hitting them. He finally calls.

Pot: $230

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain quickly checks. His range is pretty obvious to me. He either has a set of 4's (he would of raised preflop w/kk or 1010), 2 pair, A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x, or 1 pair and the Q or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I have $450 left in my stack.

This is where I couldn't decide to push or make a near pot sized bet. I know if I bet say $200, he will almost certainly call. If I push, however, I'm overbetting the pot 2 - 1, and he'll probably fold based on my table image at the time (I hadn't been doing much of anything for almost 2 hours, and appeared tight as hell).

Advantages of pushing: I'm protecting my hand, which is vulnerable, as best I can and charging him the maximum price if he's drawing. There are 19 cards I don't want to see on the river, and this allows me to play the hand as easily as possible.

Advantages of betting $200: I'm still protecting my hand and charging him a high price to draw, but it's almost certain he will call $200, while he will probably fold to a push. If the river blanks, there's also a pretty good chance he will call a value bet of say $100 if he has a set or top 2 pair.

I'll say what I did a little later, I just wanted everyone's thoughts on this particular situation first.

[oyvindgee]

[ QUOTE ]
it's almost certain he will call $200, while he will probably fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

There you go

[CarlSpackler]

Well, that's what I decided to do. I bet $200. Villain thinks about calling for almost a minute and finally does so.

Pot: $630

River: 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

This was one of the 19 cards I hate to see. Villain bets $300 which puts me allin, as I only have $250 behind. And he starts staring straight at me. I hadn't seen him get caught bluffing to this point. He had been open raising and raising preflop with a ridiculous range of hands, and I really thought he would probably do so with K 10. That leaves 10 4 and 4 4 as his most likely holdings that beat me. I also though he might have Q/J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and a 10. Ace [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 and I think he's raising preflop.

There's now $880 in the pot with my remaining $250 to call. Do you call or fold?

[cpk]

If I have it figured right, it's 9 combos you lose, 4 you win. You therefore win 30% of the time. You're getting about 3.5:1. If your read is right you have to call.

Here's something to think about, though--any possibility he's slowplayed a flush? He may have interpreted the board pairing as a scare card and pushed in, being afraid of a check by you. The problem, though, is that he could've done this with a bigger flush or a smaller flush....

[NT!]

i put him on a T with a big diamond. he doesn't think you have a flush. your odds are too good - sometimes he is going to show up with a boat or a bigger flush, but you see all kinds of retarded crap here too.

[edge]

Call the river for sure. It could easily be any T or QJ.

[CarlSpackler]

I did end up calling as I didn't see any way I could fold for this price, due to the possibility of him holding a 10. He ended up showing me K 10 for the boat.