Giving the long dollar trade another try

[tippy]

Giving it a shot at 1.4688. Got 3 lots, on the way to 10 lots total.

Fed Funds pricing in 100% chance of a .25 cut in December and 50% chance of another .25 after that.

China making their fishy remarks pushing the dollar lower. Supermodel Gisele making comments. When supermodels get quoted in the news, the market has to be at an extreme and due for a reversal.

The dollar is oversold.

I just don't think the fed is going to be able to deliver on the interest rate cuts that the market has already priced in. When the market doesn't get the cuts, the dollar should rally hard. Looks like the dollar already made a nice turn against the Canadian Dollar. Maybe other currencies follow.

Once inflation gets out of hand, the Fed just won't be able to cut.

Of course I could be wrong. Any thoughts?

[DcifrThs]

id rather make a direct bet against a fed cut in the fed funds futures/options market.

also long GBP eurodollar futures short USD eurodollar futures is a good bet if the market has priced in a 100% rate cut. reason is it is likely also priced into the eurodollar futures markets.

Barron

[ahnuld]

barron, for someone who only has access to tading stocks, currencies and options, how could one make a bet against a rate cut? Is there some super levered etf where I can bet on it?

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
Supermodel Gisele making comments

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure that's in a lot of people's market models ;p

Also, why did you choose to go long versus the Euro rather than another currency?

[tippy]

No real fundamental reason, just most familiar with how that pair moves. I wish I was more familiar with the Canadian dollar. That pair made really nice bottom.

Not sure that I'm going to be successful here though. I've got 30% of what I want, but lets see how it acts around 1.47 and how it breaks out of this base thats forming. This is a little scary. Looks a little like a cup and handle forming.

[ahnuld]

Ok, I found these CBOT binary options, and that looks perfect. Yet if I dont have an account at the cbot can I somehow get these options?

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I found these CBOT binary options, and that looks perfect. Yet if I dont have an account at the cbot can I somehow get these options?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to get an account with a firm that trades at the CBOT. Sometimes places like ETrade and Charles Schwab have referral programs so you can use one of your accounts there to do it. I'm not exactly sure how it works. If you have an account with InterActive Brokers you should probably be able to do it.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I found these CBOT binary options, and that looks perfect. Yet if I dont have an account at the cbot can I somehow get these options?

[/ QUOTE ]

yea CF said it. i'm always saying everybody should use IB since they have such a wide array of possibilities and very low costs.

Barron

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I found these CBOT binary options, and that looks perfect. Yet if I dont have an account at the cbot can I somehow get these options?

[/ QUOTE ]

yea CF said it. i'm always saying everybody should use IB since they have such a wide array of possibilities and very low costs.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

InterActive Brokers probably has the largest line of products on the net to trade,as well as being quite cost effective

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Mr. Now]

Judgements like these are usually *not* what good trades are made of. You are predicting, in effect telling Market what to do, instead of listening to what Market is saying via price and volume.

Examples:

" When supermodels get quoted in the news, the market has to be at an extreme and due for a reversal."

"The dollar is oversold."

"interest rate cuts that the market has already priced in. "

"When the market doesn't get the cuts, the dollar should rally hard."

Most of the time, I notice that Market does not ever have to get in sync with my trading. No, Mr. Now always has to get in sync with what Market is saying, now.

What you seem to be doing here is kind of telling Market what to do. Plus, now that you have a) taken a position and b) gone public with it (even under a pseudonym) you probably find yourself defending your analysis, "filtering in" what agrees, and "filtering out" what does not.

Be careful.

You might want to sell all your positions and take a fresh look at what Market might actually be saying now.

With no position to defend, no ax to grind, you might get a less filtered view of what Market actually says.

You can always put those positions back on after you complete the cognitive exercise.

.
.


Price and volume often foreshadow "the news". Trend followers, sensitive to Market messaging in price and volume, often:

1. Establish small positions early based on these messages;
2. Establish these positions without knowing "why" price and volume are sending the message;
3. Add to these positions when Market delivers confirming messages;
4. Stop buying, and hold, for the strongest segment of the move;
5. Listen and notice when the trend is weakening, and start scaling out.

Adept Trend followers often receive pleasant "surprises" from "news".

Trend followers with excellent listening skills might be able to notice lots of trends, like the dollar-down trend, relatively early in the move.

Clearly hearing Market speak is mostly an exercise in Empathy