Would you fold here?

[ntnBO]

I see it's unanimous on hand 1.

However I wish to add a comment or two of mine in regards to hand 2. My question was, would you fold on the turn? For the most part it seems that the play is to cryingly call down. But it was hard to discern that betwixt all the comment on the play of the hand beforehand.

My thinking was this, I have a very vulnerable two pair OOP against many players. What is the best way to maximize AND win the hand? I knew a flop bet would chase out none of the draws, so I checked hoping someone from middle or late position would fire and then I could C/R chasing out some of the draws. When UTG bet out and everyone called, I knew a C/R wasn't going to drive anybody away. Furthermore, if I do C/R then the pot is so big that everyone will chase even a 4-outer on the river. So I opted to call and then chase out the weak draws on the turn, and that's exactly what happened.

I'm not saying that the way I played it is absolutely correct, there are many ways to go about playing this hand in my opinion. But I think it's a bit simplistic to simply state that I have to bet out or build a pot on this particular board for reasons mentioned above.

BO

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
I see it's unanimous on hand 1.

However I wish to add a comment or two of mine in regards to hand 2. My question was, would you fold on the turn? For the most part it seems that the play is to cryingly call down. But it was hard to discern that betwixt all the comment on the play of the hand beforehand.

My thinking was this, I have a very vulnerable two pair OOP against many players. What is the best way to maximize AND win the hand? I knew a flop bet would chase out none of the draws, so I checked hoping someone from middle or late position would fire and then I could C/R chasing out some of the draws. When UTG bet out and everyone called, I knew a C/R wasn't going to drive anybody away. Furthermore, if I do C/R then the pot is so big that everyone will chase even a 4-outer on the river. So I opted to call and then chase out the weak draws on the turn, and that's exactly what happened.

I'm not saying that the way I played it is absolutely correct, there are many ways to go about playing this hand in my opinion. But I think it's a bit simplistic to simply state that I have to bet out or build a pot on this particular board for reasons mentioned above.

BO

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right about one thing: I got so caught up on the flop action that I forgot to address the rest of the hand as played. Call the three bet and c/c a safe river. I wouldn't expect to be good more than 15% here but if I've done the math right you should be ok paying off as long as the river doesn't bring a club or counterfeit you.

So, the question of whether you should fold on the turn in hand two is what you're interested in, so: no.

The flop play is crucial here, and it illustrates an important concept. When the pot is big, your main goal is to protect your hand. Period. Checking and hoping that the bet comes from LP isn't good enough. The best way to protect is to face players with a bet and hope that someone soon to act after raises. Your line lets too many people in and misses value a lot of the time. (This is sort of an aside, but do you see how hard that flop is going to hit a wide range of EP limping hands and you have two EP limpers?)

[ntnBO]

[ QUOTE ]

The flop play is crucial here, and it illustrates an important concept. When the pot is big, your main goal is to protect your hand. Period. Checking and hoping that the bet comes from LP isn't good enough. The best way to protect is to face players with a bet and hope that someone soon to act after raises. Your line lets too many people in and misses value a lot of the time. (This is sort of an aside, but do you see how hard that flop is going to hit a wide range of EP limping hands and you have two EP limpers?)

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, I knew that flop is going to hit just about everybody, that's what (IMO) makes this a difficult hand to play.

There are bad things that can happen with any line here. Let's say I bet out, chances are (almost) everyone is going to call increasing pot odds for future streets. Yes, if EP raises then most fold and I can 3-bet. But by the same token, I was looking for a LP bettor so I could raise the same way you mention an EP raiser.

Heck, let's look at all the possibilities.

1, above, I ck, UTG bets and all call.
a, if I C/R I am getting value but will not be able to chase out any future draw.
b, if I call I am sacrificing value but will still be able to chase out some river draws.
2, if it cks around, I can lead the turn and chase out many draws.
3, If I lead the flop and everybody calls, I am getting value but I cannot chase out any future draws.
4, If I lead the flop and someone raises, only then will draws fold.

Whichever line is chosen, the raise has to come from the right place in order to chase out any draws. I have to assume there is a break-even point between getting value and protecting your hand. I seem to remember a small section in SSHE regarding "when betting won't protect your hand", yes?

I'm not trying to be argumentative or anything, I simply don't see a line to play here that is significantly better than any other. But I do like the discussion and hope it continues in hopes of finding a good line.

BO

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
Whichever line is chosen, the raise has to come from the right place in order to chase out any draws. I have to assume there is a break-even point between getting value and protecting your hand. I seem to remember a small section in SSHE regarding "when betting won't protect your hand", yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

We do have a sort of agreement on how to play the flop. I count 4-2 in favor of betting the flop among the responses. This is pretty standard. With a hand this vulnerable you have to act. You can't count on others to give you a chance. Just cowboy up and bet in these spots, IMO.

I don't think you're being argumentative. I'm certainly not trying to be either. Sure, there are times where betting won't protect your hand. This would be a poor example because protection, while it should be our primary consideration in this particular hand because of the pot size, is not the only one. We also need value. In terms of value a flop bet is clearly superior to trying a c/r.

[maverickai]

You have top pair, and best kicker. He could have a nut flush draw, or with a slimmer chance, a set. call and see the flop. We might be looking at chopping the pot. He might be holding KQ+ spades

Seems like MP2 has hit his straight. Unless he's also slowing playing his set that he hit on the flop. Can't think of any range of his hand that you can beat. Any JT-JA would have been heard on the flop. You could have bet on the flop to represent a Jx, and keep any one else who hit a J on the flop.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
1, above, I ck, UTG bets and all call.
a, if I C/R I am getting value but will not be able to chase out any future draw.
b, if I call I am sacrificing value but will still be able to chase out some river draws.
2, if it cks around, I can lead the turn and chase out many draws.
3, If I lead the flop and everybody calls, I am getting value but I cannot chase out any future draws.
4, If I lead the flop and someone raises, only then will draws fold

[/ QUOTE ]

If you lead out:

1) You eliminate the possibility (admittedly remote on this flop) of it being checked around.
2) You may get (and often will get) raised by an early position player, facing much or all of the field with two cold.
3) You may get raised by a late position player, allowing you to 3bet and face much of the remaining field with two cold.
4) You may get called in multiple places, building a large pot which you figure to win far more than often enough to come out ahead in the long run.

You really can't go for the flop c/r in a hand like this unless you know that a late position player is all but certain to bet or raise with a hand you beat. Now, if the preflop action had been 4 limpers to a player on the button who raised, and you had called with J5 sooted (because nobody would call there with J5o, right?), then the check/raise looks much, much better. Unless you happen to know that the player on the button often checks through when the flop doesn't hit him.

Incidentally, because you were in the big blind and because this flop is so drawy, it's very likely that your flop lead will be raised, and often by hands drawing to very few outs against you. Change things up from time to time, yes, but in a case like this leading out on the flop is almost always going to be the best play, and usually by a pretty wide margin. Your reasoning above would be much better suited to a situation where you flopped top pair/bad kicker, a hand which might be good on the flop, but also might not & will be outdrawn fairly often even when it is.

As far as the turn goes, getting around 11.5:1 of course you call. If he's got the straight, you have odds to draw against him. And of course there are more than enough times when he's made a worse two pair on the turn or is going crazy with some combo draw to make calling down worthwhile, too.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop play is crucial here, and it illustrates an important concept. When the pot is big, your main goal is to protect your hand. Period. Checking and hoping that the bet comes from LP isn't good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is nonsense. Any situation where betting protects your hand against anything better than a gutshot would have also allowed protection if you checked.

[ QUOTE ]
You really can't go for the flop c/r in a hand like this unless you know that a late position player is all but certain to bet or raise with a hand you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with an early position player betting and then bloating the pot with probably the best hand? Why are you ignoring the possibility that someone has a hand that will bet if checked to but only call a bet?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with an early position player betting and then bloating the pot with probably the best hand? Why are you ignoring the possibility that someone has a hand that will bet if checked to but only call a bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that an early position player has a hand that he would bet, but not raise with, about as often as this flop gets checked through, or in other words, practically never. If you're talking about a late position player, then sure that's going to happen sometimes...but likely just as often the bet will come from someone earlier in the order, and be accompanied by one or more calls.

As far as our holding being probably the best hand, this is admittedly an extreme scenario, but...

13,163,470 games 16.516 secs 797,013 games/sec

Board: 9h 5c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.889% 33.36% 00.54% 4390960 71276.00 { Js5h }
Hand 1: 06.474% 05.93% 00.54% 781147 71277.00 { KdJh }
Hand 2: 36.818% 36.83% 00.00% 4848137 0.00 { Ac3c }
Hand 3: 17.566% 17.57% 00.00% 2313109 0.00 { QsTd }
Hand 4: 05.253% 05.25% 00.00% 691731 0.00 { 2c2s }

...we end up bloating the pot for someone else's equity edge. The pot is already big enough to be looking for ways to increase your chances of winning it; except for situations like I mentioned above, betting out does a much better job of achieving that.

[kyzerjose]

[ QUOTE ]
When the pot is big, your main goal is to protect your hand. Period.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take the, "Do whatever it takes to maximize your chance of winning the pot" approach.