2nd pair = river bluff

[smurfitup]

good 40-80 game in LA. I've been losing, but I'm pretty sure villain views me as a good player. 8-handed.

hero raises utg with k [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]j [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
villain reraises utg+1. hero calls.

flop is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]j [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hero checks, villain bets, hero calls.

turn is t [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hero checks, villain checks.

river is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

hero pauses for 3 seconds and checks, villain bets, hero insta-raises.

do we like? i think villain's hand is face up here, but it's a question of whether he knows i know this, etc, and whether he thinks i'm capable of checking the river w/ an ace/straight.

[vmacosta]

This is exactly the kind of play that starts to look attractive when I'm losing. Unfortunately it basically never works, particularly when I've been losing.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
This is exactly the kind of play that starts to look attractive when I'm losing. Unfortunately it basically never works, particularly when I've been losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, me too. Is he supposed to put you on A7? Sure he has one pair and you have 2. But 2 flush draws missed and its one bet to showdown. This ain't working.

[private joker]

What about a c/r on the flop and leading the turn? Shouldn't he be folding QQ a lot? (Assuming he doesn't pick up that gutter on the turn, but you can't know he will).

[hoppscot22]

i'm never folding a hand that beats you here. Its just too hard to believe that you play a hand this way that can beat a better hand than KJ. It is worth paying this off (for villain) because of this. I just think it is a -ev play, maybe good for metagame.

Therefore i dont think it is worth making this play.

[andyfox]

He might think that 3 second pause was you trying to consider whether or not to go for the check-raise. In other words, that you have his queens beat, but you were deciding whether to bet out or not.

Lots of guys who will check queens on the turn will not call a check-raise with an ace on the board on the river. Heck they'll convince themselves that you caught a set of 7s before they'll pay off. Whether your play is a good one or not is more a function of how good you think your opponent actually is. I prefer to save this play for the second time, when the first time he saw I actually had the winning hand.

[surfdoc]

I am in the camp that doubts he ever folds a better hand or pays off with a worse.