THE bubble analysis thread

[MyTurn2Raise]

in order to educate minds throughout the land and make us all more informed on the situation
as you likely know, there are 65 teams in the NCAA and all 31 conferences get an automatic bid

to begin,
there are 19 conferences that are one-bid no matter what. Anyteam that doesn't win the automatic bid, just doesn't have a worthy resume (not top 50 rpi or near rated in the polls)

19 teams
1 each from:
West Coast (sry Gonzaga-no resume this year)
Mid American
Colonial Athletic
Mid-Continent
Southern
Big West
Big Sky
Ivy
Big South
Patriot
Metro Atlantic
America East
Sun Belt
Southland
Ohio Valley
Atlantic Sun
Northeast
Mid-Eastern Athletic
SouthWestern Athletic

That leaves 44 bids for the rest of the field.

Then there are 3 conferences that have one team with a tourney resume even if they don't get the automatic, but no other tourney quality teams. Those who support a bubble team should root for these teams to win their tourney.

C-USA: Memphis
Western Athletic: Nevada (22 rpi)
Horizon: Butler (23 rpi)

Atlantic 10
a special conference.
The Atlantic10 has one quality resume and one borderline one
Xavier and Umass both are 13-3 in conf and 22-7 overall after March 2nd.
Xavier has a 33 rpi and UMass has a 60 rpi.
For those with other bubble interest, you should pull for quick losses from Umass and Xavier to win the tourney.

Mountain West: 3 potential at-large contenders
BYU 22-7, 12-3, 18 rpi
UNLV 24-6, 11-4, 12 rpi
Air Force 23-7, 10-6, 24 rpi

Missouri Valley: 4 at-large, although the fourth is a stretch
Southern Illinois 26-5, 15-3, 5 rpi
Creighton 20-10, 13-5, 30 rpi
Missouri State 22-9, 12-6, 36 rpi
Bradley 21-11, 10-8, 41 rpi
The good news for the rest of the country is SIU beat Bradley today and Creighton is handling Mizz St as I type making some clear demarcation lines for the top 2. Creighton is about to go 3-0 v Missouri St.

Then, we get to the big6 conferences (analysis to follow)

*all records through March 2nd

[MyTurn2Raise]

phew...bubble teams breathe a sigh of relief as Butler barely holds on to beat Loyola Chi 67-66 in OT

[MyTurn2Raise]

Big11Ten

LOCKS (3):
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Indiana

Near Lock (1):
Michigan State 21-10, 8-8, 20 rpi
played toughest big10 schedule
win the first easy BTT game and they are in

Bubblers (2):

Illinois 21-10, 9-7, 32 rpi
likely plays Penn St to open tourney, then IU. Win both and they are in for sure. Lose the first and they are out. Win one and it's some sweating.

Purdue 20-10, 9-7, 44 rpi
Much like Illinois. Win two and they are in. Lose the first to Iowa and they are in trouble. Win one and it's sweating.

Outside shots:
Michigan and Iowa are in similar situations. Both need a monstrous tourney to enter the conversation again. It's likely that both would get a shot at #1 Ohio State if they win their first games. It would take that win to get them on the bubble in addition to the first game.

[THAY3R]

MSU and Illinois *should* be locks fwiw.

[THAY3R]

Also, I think Michigan has a very good shot now, much better than Iowa.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
MSU and Illinois *should* be locks fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but I'm not convinced the committee will view it that way.
Some people cannot overlook MSU's 8-8 conf record despite the fact they clearly played the toughest Big10 schedule.
Illinois has a dubious history with the NCAA and the seeding committee. They had plenty of chances- win one of @Iowa, @Indiana, vWisky, vMaryland, semi- @Arizona all ended up losses. This year, Illinois is being punished for not having a *signature* win, whatever that is. Last year, Illinois fell from the 2/3 seed line for a bad loss to Penn St. This year, Illinois is one of the few teams that won every game they should, yet it's going unnoticed. Given the constant underseeding the Illini have received the past 5 years or so, I think they are in trouble. Plus, everyone keeps mentioning that they only played Wisconsin and Ohio State twice. As I pointed out in the big10 bball thread, the Illini didn't have a scheduling advantage over most the big10 as they also missed out on Purdue and Penn State at home--a very like 2-2 record. MSU is the only team that had a clearly rougher road. The thing in the Illini's favor is they do have quite a good record in road/nuetral games for a bubble team.

[Your Mom]

I don't see how Bradley gets in. Who have they beat? They went 1-2 against SIU and 1-6 combined vs. Missouri St., Creighton, and Northern Iowa with the one win yesterday vs. UNI. Creighton and SIU are locks now. I think Missouri St. gets in too although they are 0-5 vs. SIU and Creighton.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Big XII

LOCKS (3):
Kansas
Texas A&M
Texas


Bubbler (2):
Kansas State 21-10, 10-6, 61 rpi
only 1-6 v the top50 rpi (big win @ Texas), absolutely terrible non-conference.

Texas Tech 19-11, 8-7, 46rpi
game at Iowa St tonight (Saturday) is big
team has alot of good wins, but some brutal losses as well (such as losing at home to Nebraska). I think the wins against A&M and the tough schedule give them a real good shot.


Outside shot:
Oklahoma State 19-10, 6-9, 43 rpi (doesn't have Baylor loss in rpi rating)
losing at home to Mizzou and @ Baylor during the strecth run was not a good idea. They have to win @ Nebraska and make noise in the tourney.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how Bradley gets in. Who have they beat? They went 1-2 against SIU and 1-6 combined vs. Missouri St., Creighton, and Northern Iowa with the one win yesterday vs. UNI. Creighton and SIU are locks now. I think Missouri St. gets in too although they are 0-5 vs. SIU and Creighton.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did say the fourth, Bradley, was a stretch. I just don't know how much a heavily mid-major selection committee wants to include mid-majors. The MVC is the highlight mid-major conference and Bradley is top 50 rpi. I think they are likely way out, but I can see the committee including more mid majors this year than there should be.

[pwnsall]

I don't see how Creighton gets in. Who have they beat? Missouri State and Bradley a bunch and one non-conference win over Xavier. They also have bad losses @Nebraska, @Dayton, @Fresno State, @ Hawaii, @ Indiana State, and @ Illinois State as well as a home loss to Drexel which a team from a bigger conference would take grief from if they lost. Compare their resume to Illinois or Purdue or a bunch of other teams and I don't think it's even close.