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Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters
i've gotten a few PMs asking about the
Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates methodology that I've employed this year in the NFL Basically, the whole point of the system was to show how the 'boring' details of sportsbetting like line shopping matters. There is/was a vocal poster to the forum who studies the NFL somewhat seriously, feels he has good insights, and has taken the step to betting the NFL for real and not just entertainment this season. However, this poster largely ignored many very qualified posters who chirped the importance of line shopping and reading line movements. Each week this poster has posted somewhere between 3 and 7 NFL picks. To make a point and to make a little money, I actively bet the opposite way of each pick with about 5-10 minutes of effort put into line shopping. Have it be noted that I'm not the best line shopper and I'm less than below average at line movements. I did not do this system to embarrass that poster, who adds insights that I think add value to the forum. I did this because many of us come to sports betting with the idea of just picking winnerz and raking in mad loot. Many of us have been at the point in our betting careers where we just didn't realize how important the best price and best line are. I've been fortunate enough to have a few posters point out said importance and fortunate enough to listen to them. I bring this up now, because the difference in results between my system bets and that of the person I am fading is quite interesting right now. For reference, the person I'm fading bets in a single B&M casino (changes from week to week) in Vegas at -110 pricing (unless otherwise noted). From week 3 to week 10, we have the same record. However, not the difference in results! Moral: If you want to take this serious, line shop! Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates 17-16-2 up 0.12u bet 37.04u fading: 17-16-2 down 0.55u bet 38.45u **Week 3** Jacksonville +3.5 -110 +WIN San Fran +9.5 +106 -LOSS Dolphins +3 +105 +-PUSH fading: (1-1-1) --Denver -3 --Pitt -9.5 --Jets -3 **Week 4** Atlanta +2.5 v Houston bet 1.01u to win 1u +WIN Miami -3.5 v Oakland bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS St Louis +14 @ Dallas bet 1.2u to win 1u -LOSS Arizona +6 v Pitt bet 1.14u to win 1u +WIN Cincy +9 v Pats bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS fading: (3-2) --Hou -2.5 --Oak +4 --Pitt -6 --Dal -13 --NE -7 **Week 5** Saints -3.5 v Panthers bet 1.05u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS Jags -2 @ Chiefs bet 1.1u to win 1u (WSEX) +WIN Dolphins +6 @ Texans bet 1.2u to win 1u (Bodog) +WIN Pats -16.5 v Browns bet 1u to win 1.02u (5 dimes) +WIN Bears +3.5 @ Packers bet 1.05u to win 1u (Bodog) +WIN Cowboys -10 @ Bills bet 1.05u to win 1u (TheGreek) -LOSS fading: (2-4) --Car +3.5 --KC +2.5 --Hou -4.5 --Cle +16.5 --GB -3.5 (-105) --Buff +10.5 **Week 6** Chargers -9.5 v Raiders bet 1.02u to win 1u +WIN Packers -3 v Redskins bet 1u to win 1u +-PUSH Bears -4.5 v Vikings bet 1u to win 1.06u -LOSS fading: (2-1) --Raiders +10 -110 --Redskins +3.5 -110 (Win v Push) --Vikings +5.5 -110 **Week 7** Saints -7.5 v Falcons bet 1u to win 1.03u (5dimes) -LOSS Cowboys -9 v Vikings bet 1.1u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN Jaguars +3 v Inday bet 1u to win 1u () -LOSS Bengals -6.5 v Jets bet 1u to win 1u (5dimes) +WIN Eagles -5.5 v Bears bet 1.04u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS fading: (3-2) --ATL +9 -110 --Minny +9.5 -110 --Indy -3 -110 --Jets +6.5 -110 --Chi +6 -110 **Week 8** Panthers +7 v Colts bet 1u to win 1u (Bodog) -LOSS Giants -10 v Dolphins bet 1.03u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS Rams +3 v Browns bet 1.13u to win 1u (5 dimes) -LOSS fading: (3-0) --Indy -7 --Miami +10 --clev -3 **Week 9** Jets +3.5 v Redskins bet 1.05u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN 49ers +3.5 @ Falcons bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS Bengals -1 @ Bills bet 1.05u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS Vikings +7 v Chargers bet 1u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN colts +6 v Patriots bet 1.1u to win 1u (BetJamaica) +WIN Cowboys -3 @ Eagles bet 1.2u to win 1u (5dimes) +WIN Seattle +2 @ Browns bet 1.1u to win 1u (BoDog) -LOSS fading: (3-4) --Wash -3.5 --Atl -3 --Buff +1 --SD -7 --NE -5.5 --Philly +3.5 --Clv -1 **Week 10** Bills -2.5 v Dolphins bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN (Betonline) Rams +10 @ New Orleans bet 1.02u to win 1u +WIN (5dimes) Chargers +4 v Colts bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN (Bodog) fading: (0-2-1) --Miami +3 (Push v WIN) --NO -10.5 --Indy -3.5 *NOTE: The poster I'm fading posted week 2 picks that were winnerz before I started to publicly fade him. He is up on the year and deserves a good pat on the back. He is leaving money on the table as they say though. |
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