$235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw - Page 5

Slim Pickens · #41 11-06-2007, 12:49 AM

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SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

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I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but...

a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and

b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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wtf??? This makes no sense, pushing any 2 is completely 100% automatic. I know I just said it in the previous post, but your logic is way way way off.

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I'm pretty sure pushing any two isn't 100% automatic for the typical 236 6-max SNG player. Unless suzzer tells me this push is coming from someone I know doesn't suck, he's not pushing wide enough to be able to call this.

curtains · #42 11-06-2007, 01:46 AM

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SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

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I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but...

a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and

b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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wtf??? This makes no sense, pushing any 2 is completely 100% automatic. I know I just said it in the previous post, but your logic is way way way off.

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I'm pretty sure pushing any two isn't 100% automatic for the typical 236 6-max SNG player. Unless suzzer tells me this push is coming from someone I know doesn't suck, he's not pushing wide enough to be able to call this.

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Dude cmon you know thats not what I was saying at all. You actually made it sound as if it's correct play to not push. That is completely false. Whether or not some random player is doing so is not at all what I was saying. I'm not a total nobb, I know that just because some random poker player is supposed to do something doesn't mean that they will!

Slim Pickens · #43 11-06-2007, 02:23 AM

OK, review for anyone still following, this is looking at the hand from the perspective of the big stack, who is SB in the original hand.

ICM Nash Calculator Results for 200/400/50

minus: $EV given up in the current hand at 100/200
plus: $EV gained later when BB (suzzer's, but not really suzzer's since suzzer is probably too good to fall for it, but most people will) folds tighter than he should in a later hand.

If an opponent thinks you're capable of folding some hands, thus not pushing any two even in spots where we know it's way +$EV to do so, he will call too tight. When the blinds go up, hands like KTs will become correct calls for the middle stack. These hands are also hands most players will incorrectly fold unless they think they're being bullied and have some notion to "take a stand." What's happening is pushing earlier has caused our opponents to play in a way that's worse for us, albeit accidentally. Folding an any-two-cards push is a gambit that is best done only with the very bottom of the starting hand range.

curtains: I'm probably being too extreme in the application, but there's nothing wrong with my logic. I keep forgetting about the 100/200/25 round coming after the 100/200 round. Like I said earlier, if the next level is 120/240, then 150/300, there's absolutely no point in doing this. I'm folding the bottom 5-10% of hands from the SB in the exact situation presented. I wouldn't fold any at 100/200/25.

curtains · #44 11-06-2007, 02:45 AM

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OK, review for anyone still following, this is looking at the hand from the perspective of the big stack, who is SB in the original hand.

ICM Nash Calculator Results for 200/400/50

minus: $EV given up in the current hand at 100/200
plus: $EV gained later when BB (suzzer's, but not really suzzer's since suzzer is probably too good to fall for it, but most people will) folds tighter than he should in a later hand.

If an opponent thinks you're capable of folding some hands, thus not pushing any two even in spots where we know it's way +$EV to do so, he will call too tight. When the blinds go up, hands like KTs will become correct calls for the middle stack. These hands are also hands most players will incorrectly fold unless they think they're being bullied and have some notion to "take a stand." What's happening is pushing earlier has caused our opponents to play in a way that's worse for us, albeit accidentally. Folding an any-two-cards push is a gambit that is best done only with the very bottom of the starting hand range.

curtains: I'm probably being too extreme in the application, but there's nothing wrong with my logic. I keep forgetting about the 100/200/25 round coming after the 100/200 round. Like I said earlier, if the next level is 120/240, then 150/300, there's absolutely no point in doing this. I'm folding the bottom 5-10% of hands from the SB in the exact situation presented. I wouldn't fold any at 100/200/25.

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wtf? Why would there be so many better spots later. I really just don't understand. This guy is about to bust real soon. The EV we are gaining by pushing here is just way too big to pass up against anything but the craziest of opponents.

I mean why can't the shortstack simply bust on the very next hand? Honestly I just think you are way overthinking a concept that has almost no practical application. I remember when I played SNG'S actively there were always people who wanted to avoid +EV spots like this because of some stuff that might happen 10-15 hands later, and I always told them they were completely out of their minds. Similar situations were repeated as nausem, and everyone tried to be super fancy and give up ridiculously huge edges in a single hand that in isolation were equal to 50-150% of their overall win rate. That opinion hasn't changed.

The amount of EV you gain pushing 32o here should be tremendous and folding it against a typical player should be a horrible blunder that costs you a lot of money and drastically impacts your overall EV. This situation isn't even close IMO, there may be some that are slightly closer but it's almost never correct to pass such an edge.

Slim Pickens · #45 11-06-2007, 02:57 AM

Just to be clear, we're taking about passing up a 0.87% edge against TT+,AQ. Back in the day, people used to set the minimum edge to 0.5% and not even consider taking less than that. I'm definitely not folding more than 1.0% away for pretty much any reason, but the stuff in between 0 and 1.0% should be up for debate because it's the amount that can be made up in future hands if the right conditions exist. I'm also not expecting to gain it all back at once. It will happen over a number of subsequent hands.

I'm not sure why my claim seems so outrageous. If I'm wrong, it's not by more than a few tenths and it wouldn't take much to make me right. It's not like I'm suggesting folding 54s or T3o.

plexiq · #46 11-06-2007, 03:06 AM

*i ll learn to read sometime, nvm *

kleath · #47 11-06-2007, 03:07 AM

You arent gaining any equity later when shorty has 2.5 bbs, he's either busting or doubling very soon and if he doubles SB gets less FE vs suzzer and if he busts then its HU

kleath · #48 11-06-2007, 03:09 AM

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I think folding 54s here is absolutely horrible.

You realize 54s has more Equity vs the calling range (as you suggested TT+,AQ+) than hands like KTo?

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he said he's not advocating that

AMT · #49 11-06-2007, 03:30 AM

slim, when you say that theres room for debate for any play <1%, is this factoring in the difficulty of game-change over the last couple of years? I ask because when i first started posting here people always mentioned min edges whereas today the common answers are not using any at this buy in. this would make me think that a +.87 edge is plenty good to take, generally speaking.

plexiq · #50 11-06-2007, 03:32 AM

Ugh, i should get my first coffee before firing up 2p2 in the morning [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The points made about the SB folding some of the worst hands seem interesting, but i just cant see that play pay off in this spot.

Something im wondering here: Do players at these stakes really go for these kind of plays? As SB, wouldn't it take a really solid read that the BB has a tendency to drastically over-adjust, to make a fold correct in similar spots?

About the chart posted by Slim Pickens:
If i didnt mess up somewhere, 10% would be the optimal calling range against the ATC push later - and you assume players would adjust their calling range somewhere from 5% to 20% given their read on you.

I can see some players probably calling tighter if you fold hands now, but why would they ever call looser than 10%? Obviously, if the SB has a theoretical ATC push, he cant play looser than optimal - why would you loosen your call range then?