POTW college football

[Runner Runner]

Oregon has to go out and CRUSH people if it wants to play for the national championship because the computer is going to probably put the winner of the Big 12, (Kansas or Oklahoma) ahead of them because they would have beaten the other highly ranked team.

This factor should be considered, and its why I am on the Ducks.

[rush66]

Ok, just because you guys are driving me nuts here. Lets look at something regarding the "stupidity of the books." Oregon has been favored all but 1 game this year. Now, right now on SI. I see 77% of people on the spread, 97% on ML (crazy), and 82% with this in a parlay. Now, the books have dropped the line from 13 to 11. The books are really stupid ya know, since the public wins and the books go out of business.

Anywho, So far this year, oregon has only had this much of the public on them 1 time against stanford. Every single game they have been favored in this year the line has moved to increase the spread not decrease it. 63% of public against ASU it moved 1 point. 46% on them against USC still moved .5. Against Washington they only had 39% and it still moved from -11 to -12 (I played Oregon here by the way). 76% against WSU moved 2 points. 54% against cal moved 2.5. 90% stanford (but lower on the ML somehow) moved 1 point. You get the picture. Now, are the books so [censored] STUPID that after getting beat all year (8-1) as someone pointed, even though they moved the line increasing the spread, that they are all of a sudden going to decrease it for no good reason. Give me a break. If the books are that stupid, then we would all be millionaires. Just as I have said a million times before, if I lose this, then so be it, I wont make a peep and Ill take my 5 unit loss just like I did on Vandy. However, I will never ever believe Im smarter than the books.

Runner Runner,

You argument is weak here because all teams like Ohio State, BC, USF, etc, etc. Was win against inferior opponents, not even "CRUSH" them, yet they arent in the title picture.

Listen I want Oregon to win this game. I have them at 90-1 to win it all, which I posted on this forum at the beginning of the year, go back and look. I've known they were nasty since day 1 and have bet on them several times. However, I don't pretend to be smart than the books, just smarter than the general public.

BTW, DOWN TO 10.5 at Cris, hit it up.

[mogwai316]

Bodog was still showing it as +12, but dropped it to +11.5 when I logged in. Still went ahead and put 2u on Arizona. I agree with rush66's logic here for the most part.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
I see 77% of people on the spread, 97% on ML (crazy), and 82% with this in a parlay. Now, the books have dropped the line from 13 to 11. The books are really stupid ya know, since the public wins and the books go out of business.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is auto-fading BSPs in NCAAF as +EV as it appears to be with the NFL?

[rush66]

Bob,

In my personal opinion it is successful, but not as successful as the NFL, because I feel that the bookmakers put the most effort into the NFL and shade lines more effectively as well.

FWIW, This line is down to 10 at Pinny and 10.5 at most place. Though some can get 11.5 at SIA and if you get the juicy line at Bodog you can get that too, so if nothing else you can create a middle. I see some people claiming this line move is because of Dr. Bob, Lang, and some other touts. I could see this from bob, however I haven't seen Lang move a line 3 points ever. More importantly, the line opened at 13 on Sunday and was hit down to 12 on Sunday within a few hours of opening(well before any play releases). It ended up on 11 yesterday, which was before Lang's release. Dropped to 10 today. That those numbers for what they are worth but the majority has been on Oregon all along.

As I said before I feel this game will end up around 11ish, with perhaps even a back door cover, which is most likely in my opinion. I do know if you got 12 or better on arizona you got a great number. If you can find a 9 out there somewhere on Oregon, Id be tempted to take that. I saw 12.5 at SIA for about 8 minutes today, before someone slammed it back down...I wish that were me.

[BobJoeJim]

Disclaimer: Oregon homer who isn't actually betting on the game here.

I think there are a lot of reasons to stay away from this game, including uncertainty about Dixon, and questions about consistency for both teams (yeah Dixon has looked great this year, but don't forget last year, reversion still isn't impossible, while Arizona has been way up and down). If you want to be a square and include "motivation" as a factor, I think it's just as up in the air, both teams have reasons why they might be fired up and reasons why they might come out flat.

All that being said, I can't quite figure out why the line is plummeting this fast. Those were reasons to lay off the game in the 12-14 range, but at -10 I don't know how your pick could be anything but the Ducks. I don't think I'm smarter than the books, and I realize there must be a reason for this line movement, but in this case I can't figure out what it is.

Also, the line I *really* like in this game is Oregon -3 for the first quarter. I think that of the time Arizona does cover a significant number will be due to either a bad second quarter (ala Stanford) or a backdoor. I think that out of the gates, Oregon is much more likely to win the first quarter than any other individual quarter, and will be *very* shocked (in the sense that I think it only happens 40% of the time the bet doesn't push) if they're trailing, tied, or up 1-2 at the end of the first quarter. I definitely think Oregon in quarter 1 is the most EV play this game has to offer at the moment.

Edit: Oregon First Quarter Results (YTD)
Houston: W 14-7
@Michigan: W 11-7
Fresno State: W 21-6
@Stanford: W 21-3
California: W 3-0
Washington State: W 17-0
USC: W 7-0
Arizona State: W 14-3

I don't know what the 1Q line on each of those games was, but they covered 1/4th of the game line in all of them.

[bills217]

I already have a ton of Oregon but at 10 I am tempted to add again.

Even if I got bad numbers before, it is really hard for me to make any sort of case for Zona at 10.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see 77% of people on the spread, 97% on ML (crazy), and 82% with this in a parlay. Now, the books have dropped the line from 13 to 11. The books are really stupid ya know, since the public wins and the books go out of business.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is auto-fading BSPs in NCAAF as +EV as it appears to be with the NFL?

[/ QUOTE ]

24-11 ldo, but I'll take the free 2pts on SIA anyday. [added and added ML, but unposted so uncounted.]

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Oregon has to go out and CRUSH people if it wants to play for the national championship because the computer is going to probably put the winner of the Big 12, (Kansas or Oklahoma) ahead of them because they would have beaten the other highly ranked team.

This factor should be considered, and its why I am on the Ducks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't Arizona come equipped with a 'crush' switch?