NBA over/under win totals

[mogwai316]

I got Houston at over 54.

Last year they went 52-30 but had a Pythagorean of 57-25 and also had the 6th toughest schedule in the league. This was with Yao only playing 48 games and McGrady missing 11 games.

For this year they added Scola and Francis as starters. Scola has gotten great reviews and I really wish we (Spurs) had brought him over sooner or at least gotten more in return for him.. it was really bad to give him away to a division team. Francis had a +/- of -0.6 per game last year, which is obviously not good but was actually better than every other meaningful player on the Knicks except David Lee. I think he realizes the opportunity he has now and is going to be effective on this team. Yao is 27 and McGrady is 28, so they should be near their peaks this season. Additionally, Adelman has an impressive track record at improving teams - in his 1st season at Portland they improved 20 games, 1st season at Golden State they improved 10 games, and 1st season at Sacramento they won the same number of games with 32 less losses (shortened season).

[Runner Runner]

I wouldn't touch that Houston over. A lot of things need to go right for a team to win 55 games. They could easily have a good/decent year and still win between 48-54.

I really like Atlanta under and Minnesota over. The Atlanta total should not be higher then a team like Milwaukee. The Minnesota total is just too low, and is an overreaction to the Garnett trade. They will not be a good team, but they could play really poorly and still stumble into 20 something wins, and there is always the possibility that they show better then what people expect and win around 30.

[polkaface]

[ QUOTE ]
I got Houston at over 54.

Last year they went 52-30 but had a Pythagorean of 57-25 and also had the 6th toughest schedule in the league. This was with Yao only playing 48 games and McGrady missing 11 games.

For this year they added Scola and Francis as starters. Scola has gotten great reviews and I really wish we (Spurs) had brought him over sooner or at least gotten more in return for him.. it was really bad to give him away to a division team. Francis had a +/- of -0.6 per game last year, which is obviously not good but was actually better than every other meaningful player on the Knicks except David Lee. I think he realizes the opportunity he has now and is going to be effective on this team. Yao is 27 and McGrady is 28, so they should be near their peaks this season. Additionally, Adelman has an impressive track record at improving teams - in his 1st season at Portland they improved 20 games, 1st season at Golden State they improved 10 games, and 1st season at Sacramento they won the same number of games with 32 less losses (shortened season).

[/ QUOTE ]

Adelman might be a better coach than those he replaced but he DEFINITELY benefitted from better lineups (or less injuries) in the first year at each stop.

Portland Year prior to Adelman the 5,6,7 guys were Steve Johnson, Adrian Branch and Rich Anderson. Kiki V and Sam Bowie were injured most of the year and so didn't figure into the top 7 for this purpose.

Portland Year 1 Adelman - 5 6 7 guys were Buck Williams, Drazen Petrovic and Clifford Robinson.

GS Year Prior to Adelman - 10 people averaged double figures for GS. NO ONE PLAYED MORE THAN 70 GAMES!! 5 played 40 or under. Injuries were huge that year for GS.

GS Adelman Year 1 - Out of their 6 top scorers all played 52 or more games, 3 of them played 78 or more including #1 overall pick Joe Smith. I closed the screen, but I think 2 more were in the 60s and 1 played 52.

Sac Year before Adelman the most minutes went to (in order)Corliss Williamson, Richmond, Billy Owens, Anthony Johnson, Michael Stewart, Olden Polynice and Terry Dehere.

Sac Year 1 of Adelman the most minutes went to Jason Williams, Vlade Divac, Chris Webber, Corliss Williamson, Tariq Abdul Wahad, Peja and Vernon Maxwell.

So Adelman might have the mojo as a coach but his Year 1 success can also be attributed to coming into a team that is coming out of a horrible situation.

[agencia1]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't touch that Houston over. A lot of things need to go right for a team to win 55 games. They could easily have a good/decent year and still win between 48-54.

I really like Atlanta under and Minnesota over. The Atlanta total should not be higher then a team like Milwaukee. The Minnesota total is just too low, and is an overreaction to the Garnett trade. They will not be a good team, but they could play really poorly and still stumble into 20 something wins, and there is always the possibility that they show better then what people expect and win around 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. houston is def to b v good. but generally i dont like betting on teams to be 50+ wins. theres much less upside. if everything goes right houston wins 60 games. thats a 5 game cushion. i mean if bonzi, scola, alston all show up to play and yao and mcgrady dont get hurt the whole yr

im thinkning atl might be interesting on the under. id have to sit on that one bc i remember last yr i really thot they were going to be a half decent team. either way after toronto over i like atlanta under...

[agencia1]

either way im glad to see adelman coaching houston
van gundy has been effective but watching his teams is painful
ithink hes one of the better coaches at maximizing his players
talents

[morello]

I like 4 bets so far. Listed in order of preference:

Seattle over 27.5. First, they lost Ra-Lewis and Ra-Allen, which might seem like a huge loss, but they are replaced by Durant, Wally, Delonte West and Jeff Green. They are probably less effective overall, but IMO by not nearly as much as one would assume at first glance. Secondly, they were in the bottom 5 in defensive efficiency last year, largely due to being forced to give minutes to complete jobbers like Petro, Geleabele, and Saer Sene. Their interior defense was atrocious, and that has been addressed with the addition of Kurt Thomas, who is a HUGE upgrade. Robert Swift was projected to be the starting center last year, but was lost to injury. His return should also be worth something. Overall this team is pretty deep and should be able to contend most nights.

Chicago over 49. Last year they had a Pythagorean win of 58 and a record of 49-33. All else being equal, we'd expect them to end up closer to 58 than 49 this year. But I don't think all else is equal -- it's reasonable to assume that Loul Deng will keep getting better, that Tyrus Thomas will improve somewhat significantly, and Joakim Noah should be an impact rookie. Looking over their offseason moves they simply seem to be better than last year. Additionally, they could be the major player if a marquee superstar is traded (Kobe, Gasol, etc).

Houston over 53.5. Admittedly a high total, but they won 52 last year and had a Pythagorean win of 57. It's unlikely that Yao misses 35 games this year, that alone should add a couple of wins to their expectation. Further, they added Luis Scola who, even if average, should be a significant upgrade. Mike James/Steve Francis should prove to be upgrades as well. Their defense will suffer with the loss of Van Gundy, but they should make up for it offensively. Oh, and the addition of Adelman means they essentially add Bonzi Wells to the mix, and he's quite good actually.

Cleveland over 48.5 (+122) I naturally assumed that a Cleveland line would be inflated for square bettors, but I think there is value here. Firstly, the Cavs had a Pyth. win of 54 last year versus an actual record of 50-32. Secondly, they added Devin Brown, which probably doesn't mean much, but you can't get much worse than Damon Jones and Eric Snow. They combined for 43 minutes a game last year and 40% FG shooting. An upgrade from terrible to below average is still an upgrade.

I know that picking 4 overs might be a bad sign, but I feel fairly confident in these. I don't feel as strongly about the teams I suspect will go under their totals. (Miami being a good choice, but they missed so many games from Shaq/Wade last year that I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger. If both miss significant time again this year, things will get ugly.)

[bevo_stevo]

I've played three of these so far. I created estimates by making power rankings of the teams and then playing through the entire season. The three I've played so far are:

Los Angeles Lakers Under 44.5 (Estimated Wins: 39.9)
Kobe or no Kobe this team is still pretty mediocre

Miami Heat Under 46.5 (Estimated Wins: 40.3)
An aging squad and an improving conference land them here

New Orleans Hornets Over 37.5 (Estimated Wins: 40.9)
I'll hold my nose and make at least one over play

These results tend to be highly dependent on the initial power rankings - unlike football where the quality of the opposition plays a much larger part. I'm still eyeballing a handful of others as well.

[bevo_stevo]

[ QUOTE ]
Toronto 41.5: I think this team is really underrated....maybe its because they have so many foreign players that people don't know well. But I really like the foundation of Bosh/Bargnani...big men aren't easy to come by in this league. Ford/Calderon provide a solid PG duo. Adding Kapono really lets them space the floor. They won 47 last year...could it have been a one year fluke? Perhaps, but I still think theres good value in this line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily disagree with this assessment, but since there seems to be a lot people on the Toronto bandwagon I guess I'll mention that the improvement of Boston will end up costing Toronto about 1 to 1.5 games that they would have won in '06-'07.

The line movements seem to indicate that the over is the correct play, but based on my projections this won't be a play that I'll be making. Additionally, I think Toronto outperformed their Pythag last year by a couple of games so you need to take that into account.