Casino Bonus Idea

[Obliky]

Hi Guys,

not sure if this post is obvious to you guys or not..i also could be completely off the mark here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ok.. so im doing the $100 bonus playing BJ at Starluck casino. Using the strategy sheet i have, my ROI per hand is ~ 99.4% and i have to wager $1600 before i cash out.

Therefore if i wager $2 per hand i have to play 800 hands, giving me a final total of:

(2 * ((100 - 99.4) / 100)) * 800 = $9.6 loss over the 800 hands

So as the bonus is deposit $100 and get $100 free i end up with 200 - 9.6 = $190.40 on average.

Thats all fair enough.. but now here is the idea. If i now take that ~$190 and stick it on a bet of ~50/50, say red or black in roulette i get the following:

EV is:

(($190 * 2) * ~0.5) - ($100 * ~0.5) = + $140

Edit: Just thought i should clarify where the $100 is from. This is the original $100 invested at the start..

So surely this is a bet worth taking? Or am i missing something obvious?

Help would be appreciated as im new to casino whoring!

Thanks

Obliky

[BiPolar_Nut]

Why not play one big BJ hand instead of the higher house edge red black/even odd roulette bet?

My thought on this tho: once you've cleared your bonus, you're making a -EV play. Would it not be better to calculate the risk of going busto that you're comfortable with, then progressively play BJ for higher amounts (and lower is running cold) *while* clearing the bonus to stay at that percentage? Seems the only time you have +EV is while there's something to clear...after that it's -EV. Only thing you're proposing is future gamling w/ "free money"...which once cleared is yours. Gambling with it at that point is just that...a gamble...and a -EV one.

Just my take. I understand the "might as well try for more cause it's free money" mindset, but that doesn't make it +EV.

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not play one big BJ hand instead of the higher house edge red black/even odd roulette bet?

[/ QUOTE ]I can't imagine BJ is still a lower edge bet if you can't double or split (because you've bet your whole roll on one bet.) You're right that you could bet 1/4 of your current roll till you get close to the end of your required play, and then round-out with roulette.

Note that raising your variance actually improves your EV by a tiny bit. (The better the chance of going busto, the better the chance you'll have to play less, and therefore spend less on the house. Really.)
-Sam

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
So surely this is a bet worth taking? Or am i missing something obvious?

[/ QUOTE ]Your math is definitely correct. I think it's generally pretty easy to find +EV casino bonii. They're just usually very time-intensive and/or very very high variance.

Also, be super-duper careful about reading the fine-print. There are some that require you to play slots with very high edge. Some can cancel your account if it's seen that you are "abusing the bonus by playing in a manner contrary to the intentions of <StarLuckJoySunsine Casino Inc>." (I don't even know what that means!)

Figure-out what happens to your EV calculation if there's a 10% chance they take your roll on the one casino where you happen to win big. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (I'm sure they won't accuse you of abusing the bonus in the casinos where you lost.)
-Sam

[BiPolar_Nut]

Hey Sam, I forgot about not being able to double/split. Thanks. I just said what I said bout the house advantage cause I was under the impression BJ was ~48.something percent and a 0/00 roulette wheel was 47.36something. Of course that'd be inaccurate if you can't split/double or could play a single 0 roulette wheel.

Thanks for the enlightenment. I may be wrong on my 48.something figure as well for BJ.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]


Thats all fair enough.. but now here is the idea. If i now take that ~$190 and stick it on a bet of ~50/50, say red or black in roulette i get the following:

EV is:

(($190 * 2) * ~0.5) - ($100 * ~0.5) = + $140



[/ QUOTE ]
In the first term, you use your gross winnings (190 * 2) when you should be using your net winnings (190 * 2, minus your original stake of 100). The corrected equation should be:

((190 * 2 - 100) * ~0.5) - (100 * ~0.5) = 90,

which is exactly your EV if you just take the bonus and pass on your hypothetical even-money bet. Since your actual odds of winning the bet is less than even-money, your real EV will be less than 90, and the bet will be a bad proposition.

[SamIAm]

Ok, sorry. When I said "Your math is definitely correct", I really meant "There are definitely +EV bonuses out there. I haven't even looked at your arithmetic."

In general, whenever I say "definitely" you can replace it with "Man, I dunno. Probably."
-Sam

[DMA]

Your ROI makes no sense.

[Freakin]

if you try to double up a bonus first, it is worth more money... i haven't checked your math at all, but your idea is fine

[ImsaKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
if you try to double up a bonus first, it is worth more money... i haven't checked your math at all, but your idea is fine

[/ QUOTE ]

He is talking about doubling after he clears the bonus, which he supported with incorrect math.