Another River Situation - Missed Draw

True · #1 03-15-2006, 10:05 PM

Hero has T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero is in the BB, and UTG is 60/25/1.5

UTG raises, folds to Hero who calls.

Flop - J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls

Turn - 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets, UTG calls

River - 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero....

Machinehead · #2 03-15-2006, 10:10 PM

I'd bet if I think he can fold A high. With those stats...he probably can't. Do you know his WtSD%?

True · #3 03-15-2006, 10:14 PM

wtsd = 42.5

jakeduke · #4 03-15-2006, 10:15 PM

I don't know any villians with those stats that are folding for one there. Another missed draw is the only thing you can fold out imo. I'm c/fing.

Obliky · #5 03-15-2006, 10:17 PM

I bet this...to me checking is weak as you will basically never win the hand. By betting we may get a number of hands to fold..however i know a lot of ppl disagree.

Edit: Ah i didnt see the Wtsd. If its really 42 then we have to check/fold as this guy is calling down with anything.

jakeduke · #6 03-15-2006, 10:19 PM

Are those hands that likely against the hands that will call?

jba · #7 03-15-2006, 10:21 PM

don't bluff a calling station. this guy is going to showdown too often IMO.

True · #8 03-15-2006, 10:24 PM

I usually check/fold in this situation but thought that I may be able to get a pair underneath to fold for the last shot, maybe AK/AT for the odds I was getting.

True

True · #9 03-15-2006, 10:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
don't bluff a calling station. this guy is going to showdown too often IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh, I thought check/folding was standard. Should I have gone for the semi-bluff c/r then bet turn against this opponent? IS it better just to c/c c/c then c/r? I read a post by StellarWind yesterday that said something about us having tremendous odds to try bluffs like this since we make our hand so often that we don't need him to fold that frequently.

True

Machinehead · #10 03-15-2006, 10:36 PM

Against a TAG it's a good play, but this guy just isn't going anywhere. Personally I like to c/c, c/c against aggressive villians who don't fold. It also allows you to C/R the turn for more $. It's more about playing your opponent. 42% wtsd is pretty damn high for an aggressive player with a 60% vpip.