Look at the trouble I get myself into

[DeathDonkey]

Playing 4 handed 50/100 online with two fish and one decent player who is a bit LAGgier than me preflop but pretty solid postflop. We are playing together on 3 tables and I believe he respects me / realizes we are both there for the other two fools.

Anyway I open on the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and he defends the BB.

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and he donks into me. This is weird, he hasn't done this before and I suspect a monster or a very weak hand. I call.

Turn is T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and he bets and I decide I am going to raise the river regardless of whether I improve or not since I have a million outs now and if I miss I'll be pissed and want to bluff raise but if I make the plan now then its logical and that's a good enough reason to bluff raise right? Anyone raise it now?

Ok so the river is the 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I go ahead and quickly raise him and he thinks for about 10 seconds and then he 3 bets! Now that just smells funny doesn't it? I really really want to call or bluff 4 bet now. What should I do?

-DeathDonkey

[PartyGirlUK]

I think it would be unlikely he is bluffing a better hand than yours, so I dont like the bluff cap at all. I dont like your raise much either, on the blank. Raising turn for a free showdown seems a better line.

[Leader]

Well if he's waits for 10 sec he's probably thinking about what to do rather then faining weakness or faking faining weakness. Those things don't usually take that long. So the question is what he could be thinking about. The thing that immediately comes to my mind is that he has some middle two pair or a big Q that he decided to take a weird line with. The problem with your river play is your read on his flop bet. Seems like if he's donking a weak hand it's likely a 7 or a gs. Well the turn card is killer for you if he has a gs. So he'd really have to have a low pp or like A6 and that seems really odd/rare to me.

I'd just call the river, and I think that is a little close (to a fold).

[Kwaz]

I think your river raise stinks. Badly.

For that reason, I think you may be right to assume that his 3bet is hinky but contrary to Dean, I doubt that he ever does this with a worse hand than yours. Or even holds one for that matter.

But I do think there are a % of his hands that will fold to a 4bet. What I can't decide is if you've bloated the pot too much or just enough to cap it.

BTW. I'd raise the turn.

[ALL1N]

Raising the turn and betting the river seems a far better bluffing line. Although I can't see why you'd want to be bluffing in the first place.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Deathdonkey, I agree with your assessment that this guy is either betting a weak hand/bluff or a monster, on the flop. I think the problem here though is that each street this guy bets his hand gets stronger and stronger becuz he knows youre not folding. He knows that you have to have atleast a pair given the way youve played your hand flop+turn, and he knows youre not folding. So this means when he bets that river hes not bluffing, he has a hand, and at this point it is more likely that he has a hand that is stronger than we initially thought becuz if he is a good postflop player, hes probably not even betting a "bet/folding" hand versus you, with those hands he'd probably check/call vs you.

So yes I do think your river play is bad vs this player. I think folding the river is probably your best play on this specific board. Im still debating on whether or not I would raise the turn here, and the answer so far in my mind is no, becuz I dont see what that play accomplishes either.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
becuz if he is a good postflop player, hes probably not even betting a "bet/folding" hand versus you, with those hands he'd probably check/call vs you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this specifically because he is afraid that DeathDonkey will bluffraise too much? Otherwise I don't understand this statement.

Can anyone elaborate?

Thanks,
Cartman

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
becuz if he is a good postflop player, hes probably not even betting a "bet/folding" hand versus you, with those hands he'd probably check/call vs you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this specifically because he is afraid that DeathDonkey will bluffraise too much? Otherwise I don't understand this statement.

Can anyone elaborate?

Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea how deathdonkey plays, but I would assume hes a tough aggressive winning player, and I am making the assumption (which may not be warranted) that the villain knows this. I made this assumption becuz good postflop players cannot play that well postflop without paying close attention and using reads to help guide their play.

I think based on the texture of this board and the way this hand has played out, specifically the way Deathdonkey has played his hand, basically representing a passively played showdown-bound hand...The villain is going to have a hand when he bets the river, and if he plays well postflop, I dont think hes going to be bet/folding a better hand on this river versus an aggressive player like Deathdonkey.

[27offsooot]

My thoughts are to just call the river and fold to the three bet, but since u're a better player and considering a cap, i'll take a stab at your thoughts...
Your river raise is so weird that it may elicit bluff three bets by villain. He knows that the time to raise a very good hand is on the turn (or flop) b/c of the draw heavy nature of the board. If this were more uncoordinated, then a river raise makes a lot more sense. Since he knows u can't have a very good hand, u most likely are raising as a bluff or for thin value that has to fold to a three bet. Your thin value river raises most likely have a draw in them, as being three bet on the turn with a K or 9 + pair really sucks.
I have difficulty putting him on a range though, because ur line is so fishy that he should be three betting pretty wide. Of course it includes complete bluffs and monsters, but i'm not sure what he would do with those in-between hands. I think the frequency of monsters/ bluffs is higher than solid SD worth hands for villain, but i don't know if this is high enough to not cap. However, since a hand like KQ/ KJ/ KT is in your range on the river, and villain may be "bluffing" with a better hand, i think u should cap if u're going to call.

[mntbikr15]

Im with Dean and Allin...I like a turn raise much better if you insist on putting more bets in.

Hes shown alot of strenth and that river clearly didnt hit you.

Given the hand as played fold to the three bet. What could he possibly be three bet bluffing you with here? I dont understand how someone said its not a clear fold to the three bet.