High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers ahoy)

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Someone should do the math on PA running it 1,2,3 times. I'm would think it's slightly more ev for PA to run it as much as possible. As each time Gold does hit, there's less outs the next time. Yes there's less non-outs if Antonius hits. But I wouldn't think that change has as much effect. Or maybe it works out exactly even.

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the equity doesn't change, only the variance. there are probably 20 posts about it on 2+2.

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For those who want to be convinced about the math:

running it once:

34/44 for PA and 10/44 for JG

running it twice:

PA scoops 34*33/(43*44) = 1122/1892
split pot 2*34*10/(44*43) = 680/1892
JG scoops 10*9/(44*43) = 90/1892

PA's equity = 1122/1892 + 0.5*680/1892 = 1462/1892 = 34/44 (exactly, no rounding)

running it thrice ...
PA scoops 34*33*32/(44*43*42) = 35904/79464
PA wins twice 3*34*33*10/(44*43*42) = 33660/79464
JG wins twice 3*34*10*9/(44*43*42) = 9180/79464
JG scoops 10*9*8/(44*43*42) = 720/79464

PA's equity = 35904/79464 + (2/3)*33660/79464 + (1/3)*9180/79464 = 61404/79464 = 34/44 (exactly, no rounding)