PLO200 - hard decision on the river

[antchev]

Villain is 17/9/1,5 over 100 hands, playing very solid and aggressive. I'm advertising here to vary my game, and I catch trips on the river so I check to induce a bluff by busted nut flush draw. How often does villain bluff this river with a busted nut flush draw to make this call +EV?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $192.95
UTG+1: $145.55
CO: $78.60
Button: $83.90
SB: $39.20
HERO: $200

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises to $7</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($15, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $15</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($45, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $45</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 is all-in $78.55</font>, HERO ???