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#1
11-07-2007, 08:33 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. [/ QUOTE ] I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo. I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain something to me about how this works? Does Ron Paul being at 9 (or whatever he is at) mean that I can bet against Paul being nominated at this number (and not have all my potential winnings swallowed up by commission). In other words, can I place a wager that will cost me $100, which I will lose if Paul IS nominated, but where I will WIN $9 if he is not? If you can't do this, then I don't think this is at all an accurate measure of his chances. Betting markets are generally good predictors when they attract an equal amount of money on both sides. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, you can both bid and ask, i.e. buy and sell. Edit to add: In fact you have to, since contracts are made between buyers and sellers, and not the "bookie". 
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#2
11-07-2007, 08:38 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson. [/ QUOTE ] I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo. I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain something to me about how this works? Does Ron Paul being at 9 (or whatever he is at) mean that I can bet against Paul being nominated at this number (and not have all my potential winnings swallowed up by commission). In other words, can I place a wager that will cost me $100, which I will lose if Paul IS nominated, but where I will WIN $9 if he is not? If you can't do this, then I don't think this is at all an accurate measure of his chances. Betting markets are generally good predictors when they attract an equal amount of money on both sides. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, you can both bid and ask, i.e. buy and sell. Edit to add: In fact you have to, since contracts are made between buyers and sellers, and not the "bookie". [/ QUOTE ] I know you can both buy and sell, but as a practical matter, how much money would I make right now by (short) selling a Ron Paul if he doesn't get nominated, and how much of my profit would go into commission?
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#5
11-07-2007, 09:04 PM
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Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
Today's Volume 2 If it weren't illegal and/or if it were widely traded, I'd put more money on there than everyone ITT combined [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Sadly, I'd probably do the same, if those conditions were met and my money didn't have to be tied up for months. P.S. It's not actually illegal, is it? I've always been under the impression that actually placing wagers like that is not against the law, but booking the bets is. Am I wrong? I assume you would know. If so, has anyone ever been prosecuted for betting online that you know of?
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