Trips

[Guy McSucker]

Stars 50c/$1. Villain has 40/3/1.6 stats and is typical i.e. a bit on the weak-tight side postflop. Nobody gets all-in in these games ever in my experience.
Effective stacks $140.

I open A8o for $3 on the button, and to my complete surprise both blinds call.

Flop is 882r.

SB checks, villain bets $2. He has made these little bets with weakish top pairs, flush draws and the like.

I make it $12, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn is T.

He checks, I bet $20, he minraises.

Plan? If I call there will be $85 left to bet with a pot of $100.

[djshawk]

I'm going to have a go at this one.

Hands that beat you: 82, 22, T8, TT

Other hands in his range include suited 8s, 99-TT though these probably wouldn't minraise the turn, JJ-AA might though and a 40/3/1.6 villian seems like the perfect candidate to play them this way.

Since you raised preflop he's not going to put you on an 8 straight away and the mini bet on the flop could easily be a worse 8.

So what to do? I think if you reraise you need to make it somewhere around $120 which will leave you with next to no chips so it's between a push and a call. A push will almost certainly fold out most of the non 8 hands and I don't think you mind him drawing to 2 outs if he has a pair, you may even get him to fold a smaller 8, which you don't really want him to do.

If you call he still doesn't know what you are on so may well bet again with a hand you beat on the river. If he checks then I'd probably fire out about 1/2 psb on the river.

[AZK]

call, shove river, how would you play an overpair?

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
call, shove river, how would you play an overpair?

[/ QUOTE ]

As it played out, I called and he bet $60 of the remaining $100 on the river 9.

Are you saying I should throw in the last $40, i.e. that I am ahead >50% of the time here?

[jstill]

yeah I like calling to shove the river becuz ur not gonna 3bet the turn here with AA KK ect and ur in position... oop id just 3bet now basically putting ur stack in

i think ur ahead on the river still greater than 50% of the time, TT folds to ur flop raise (which I think was alittle too big tbh id go 7-8 or so) T8 and 82 even suited almost always muck preflop (T8s may not only 1 cmbo tho) so thats leaves only 22 u really have to worry about on the turn... its probably close since there arent a ton of worse 8x combos hes likely to play and the 9s a bad card but he is playing 40% of his hands so T8 as well as 98s 87s 86 maybe stuff like J8 K8s are in his range but I think u should stick in the last 40 bucks cuz hes calling with whatever (he could even have played AA-QQ this way, players with these stats 40 vpip / very low pfr just call AA KK preflop alot and then stack off postflop like the donks they are so thats a large portion of his range here I think, enough to justify putting the last of it in).

Id say he shows up with J8s T8s 98s 87s all equally then AA KK slightly more often than 22 just becuz of combos (12:3 combos but its closer than that) and then theres the random Q8 K8 ect he is playing 40% of his hands and he ll play all these like the nuts (he wont put u on an 8 or 22 having played the flop fast if u want to 2nd level think which isnt that necessary vs a donk here truthfully just becuz of how strong our hand is).

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

stack off postflop like the donks they are


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, maybe this is worth a thread on its own, but at the tables I've been finding, nobody is stacking off ever. I've played maybe 2000 hands in my most recent attempt to work out wtf is going on in NL, and the biggest pot I've managed to win was like $40. These guys don't bluff and they don't value bet and they bet small with their big hands and they fold quickly to aggression... So I win a million tiny pots, and then get stacked in a pot like this.

Just running bad?

[Neko]

I think jstill is right on the money here. His range is wide enough to put the rest of your stack in imo.