NL 5 Confusion

[Mr_Pathetic]

Villain was maniac. In lots of hands going to showdown quite often. Whats the line on this flop? My range for her would be sets, AdJx, KdJx, QQ, 7d5d or another made flush. She may even bet as weak as just a draw but would she really call with it if I push? If I push what worse hands would you expect someone who goes to showdown 36% of the time to call with? If I do bet here I think I make it 6 since that will put villain all in.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $7.99
<u>BB: $7.23</u>
UTG: $14.56
<u>Hero (BTN): $9.18</u>

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K (4 Players)
UTG calls $0.05, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.25</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $0.45</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.45</font>, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.97) 8 6 J (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.95</font>, <font color="red">Hero?????

[JuicyBones]

Well, I either push over or call and push a non-diamond turn. Not sure which is better, but this happens to me enough I'm very curious.

Recently, the last two times I've been in this situation I pushed the flop and villain flipped a lower overpair and made the flush and the other flopped the flush- in both cases I didn't have a flush draw.

[Mr_Pathetic]

Had I had the flush draw as well things are much easier. Also if the player was actually passive things would be different too. Lately I have been thinking that just because someone is 58/20 preflop does not mean they are going nuts post flop as well. Basically we know this villain can be in this hand with upwards of 30% of hands but how many of those 30% actually lead this flop and call a push? What percent of that 30% would check fold here, what % would check raise? How many lead this flop and fold to a push? And the most important question in this hand is what % of the 30% will bet this flop that we are ahead of and is that enough to push?

[JuicyBones]

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Had I had the flush draw as well things are much easier.

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yeah, easy push

[ QUOTE ]
Lately I have been thinking that just because someone is 58/20 preflop does not mean they are going nuts post flop as well.

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Very true. Personally, what I think needs to be considered is what his 3-bet range is. I tend to think the majority of micro stakes players as pretty passive PF so I put their range on AK, QQ+ (I don't think suited or unsuited really enters their thought process). Maybe JJ and AQ.

So basically you're only ahead of about half of their range- AKo, AQo, QQ, and behind AA, JJ, and the nut flush. Given that you don't have a flush draw, and although you could be ahead on the flop, another diamond is very unpleasant, I'm starting to lean more toward calling this and seeing what he does on the turn...

[Mr_Pathetic]

I'd say wide since I saw same villain 3bet 96o. I had been betting quite alot preflop when this happened to the point no one ever thought I had anything. Villain has to know I have something this time though as I had never 4bet until this hand. When I played this hand I thought I was ahead but now that I look at it I think I am 36%-45% at best.

[TheBobn]

Wow, your range is ridiculously small for villain here. Villain's range should be very wide, and given preflop action, any made flush is going to check to you. He is likely betting out to protect his hand. I think you see pair + weak flush draw here or even just a pair a lot. I'd stick it in on the flop, although you're flipping with the Ad or any pair + flush draw, I think he will get it in with considerably worse. If he had a full stack, I'd call the flop and bomb a non-diamond turn, but given stacksizes, stick it in on the flop.

P.S. I like bet sizing preflop.

[checkmate36]

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P.S. I like bet sizing preflop.

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I agree. Those bet sizes are very good.

Im thinking waiting to see what the turn brings is the best option before getting it all in. Im def no expert post-flop so this is a good hand to review.

Thanks for posting it.

[Maneh]

I preffer to just call and go all-in on no diamonds turn

[JuicyBones]

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Wow, your range is ridiculously small for villain here. Villain's range should be very wide, and given preflop action, any made flush is going to check to you.

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You see a lot of Opps. 3-betting "very wide" at 5NL? I might expect that from a maniac running 50+/40+ but not a standard LAP.

I agree a made flush is going to check, but I don't think we push off a single diamond on the flop, who we're basically flipping with if called.

[Mr_Pathetic]

Villain was aggressive postflop for someone at 58/20. I think AF was 1.8. I put the range so small as that is what I feel would lead into me not what villain had when villain calls my bet PF. I think it is essential to know what parts of a range villain will play in certain way that way when that action happens you can quickly figure them out and limit their range down. The smaller the range you can put opponent on the better off you are.

I also would not go as far as saying villain would check a made flush as villain most likely sees me as aggressive but tricky trappy type of aggression. I have been experimenting postflop with taking out mindless cbets and really asking myself what worse hands call, what better hands fold, can I get both, and what does my hand look like to my opponent. Of course I am also thinking what they have and my odds etc. These people do think down here, I had this entire table in an uproar and two at table, not villain, thought they knew quite a bit about poker. I had also stacked off in a previous hand where I raised a flop bet with nothing, caught a lil something and thought it was good and pushed the turn.

There was a lot of things going on at this table to influence the decision of this villain but it would take too long to tell the story. So to make a long story short, I sit, I stack off once, table talks junk, I tell em to die in greasefire, then I say go to lobby, requests, transfers, user: myname, amount: your roll. Needless to say they hated me.