SNG bubble, donk call IMO

[DevinLake]

I'd be very interested in you running a simulation on this as well.

It is something that, at this point, is only ever qualitatively argued. Which makes it pretty difficult to argue for or against with any real sense of who is right or wrong.

[Slim Pickens]

Blinds: 300/600/A50

CO (t6245)
Hero (t3110)
SB (t1585)
BB (t2560)

Dealt to Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: <font color="red">CO raises all-in t6195</font>, Hero ???

So the single-hand number is a call is -1.5% against any two. It gets a little better if you remove some of the biggest hands from his range, only -1.3% without QQ-AA.

call/win the next hand looks like

Hero (t7220) (38.5% prepost equity)
Button (t1235)
SB (t1910)
BB (t3135)

Most of Hero's pushes are in between +0.7% and +1.3%, depending the calling ranges but most seem to fall in that area. Basically, we can discount the hit taken by calling by the profit from shoving ATC (about 1%) in the next hand about 70% of the time we win the current hand.

The hand after that (assuming everyone folds) is

CO (t1185)
Button (t1560)
SB (t2485)
Hero (t8270) (40.8% prepost equity)

and a walk to

CO (t1135)
Button (t1510)
SB (t2135)
Hero (t8620) (41.7% prepost equity)

So there's a pretty likely part of that 70% you win calling with AQs that's +3.2% and doesn't even include you picking up some monster like K5s on the BB and being about the make a good call.

[DevinLake]

Ok, so you can reasonable expect calling here to turn a profit long term.

But, don't we have to examine the other scenarios? When we fold and let others battle it out?

[bokunori]

I like that monster like K5s line (I know it's more than enough to call the shorties, mind you.). Slim, your line of thinking is like the WAY advanced version of mine when I made this call (Snap call, I'm a tard lol.).

P.S.: The tourney went just like that, w/ a steal, BB walk, then shove from SB with K5s, to hold up against 56o. You're good

[scorpion_nz]

There is no way we can call here, even if you think you are ahead of CO's range. I'm probably throwing away everything except AA (and maybe KK) here. Firstly, you can't assume that everyone will fold to the shove if you don't call. By calling, you are giving yourself a chance to bust on the bubble (which is a catastrophe), and the short stacks are getting a HUGE equity boost when you lose, which is approximately 1/3 of the time even if he is pushing any two.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so you can reasonable expect calling here to turn a profit long term.

But, don't we have to examine the other scenarios? When we fold and let others battle it out?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying it's necessarily profitable. I'm just saying this is a good example of being able to discount a -$EV play in a single hand by accounting for +$EV opportunities unique to the branches of the event tree that grow from calling and winning, which don't otherwise happen. There's a lot more possibilities than what I described, and some good things can happen if you fold too. I am saying it's not as clear-cut as ZOMGSNGPTSAYSFOLD. To borrow an eastbay quote, "SNGPT doesn't 'say' anything."

[billybeartku]

I think it's an easy fold here. Even tho you beat his range widely, you are not dominating his hand if he pushes with any two. AQ vs TJ, you lose one time in three. Also in DOH, pretty sure he talked about the very similar scenario where in that spot as a 2nd leader, you can only call CL's push w/ AA and KK, and AA and KK only. Even QQ has to go into the muck. Also in SnG strategy talked about this also. I'd fold here.