Boxing: Vargas/Mayorga 11/23

[Tuds75]

Fernando Vargas -166
Ricardo Mayorga +156
Total Rounds
Over 9.5 rounds +127
Under 9.5 rounds -137

Not really 2 top fighters squaring off, but 2 fighters with crowd appealing styles and now it seems there is a hatred between the 2.

First things first, this fight is taking place at 154, a weight each fighter has fought on and off at and a weight both have been champions at.

I see Vargas winning this one pretty easily and by easily I mean Vargas will be able to score at will. Vargas will take some punishment in the process, but I see this as a one-sided fight. Mayorga is still riding his wins over Vernon Forrest as his calling card to fame. He has had some big fights afterwards, but he also lost them all. Vargas on the other hand seemed to peak at about 24-25, then with back problems and steroid-use he seemed like a lost fighter and nothing more then average, but his fights with Mosely restored confidence in Vargas fans that the once prospect who showed so much talent might still be inside Vargas.

Vargas is the better fighter. He hits harder, throws cleaner punches, better combos. Basically everything offensive Vargas does better then Mayorga. Mayorga has big power, but that comes from his big looping punches and that power was much more evident at 147. At 154 Mayorga has ZERO KO's. The only thing Mayorga has better then Vargas is his chin and stamina. Look back at Mayorga's previous performances against top fighters, Tito Trinidad and De La Hoya. In both fights Mayorga was out gunned and out classed basically a punching bag for however many rounds before he (Mayorga) finally crumpled. I don't put Vargas on the level or Oscar and Tito, but I put him right behind the 2 in terms of talent. Just look at the fact Vargas was able to hang with both Oscar and Tito (before finally being KO'ed by both), while Mayorga never gave either Tito or Oscar much of a fight.

My prediction is Vargas and Mayorga will start this fight off at a furious pace with both landing lots of big punches. Hell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both fighters on the canvas in the first 3 rounds. Once the fight gets into the middle rounds (remember 10 round fight). I see the pace slowing a lot and Vargas working his offense almost at will on Mayorga. Mayorga will resort to cheap tactics and huge looping punches looking for the finish. I think at this point Vargas just picks Mayorga apart and finishes the fight with a UD, both fighters showing the effects of the fight. Mayorga looking much worse.

At -166 Vargas is a steal and one of the best bets I have seen in boxing in a few months. If I had to set a line on this fight I would say Vargas is AT LEAST -200 (1-2 fav) against an older, less talented and over-classed fighter in Mayorga. I think the O/U is a tough bet. I would see a stoppage or maybe even a DQ on Mayorga, but most likely I see Vargas cruising the final few rounds and maybe looking to finish a beat Mayorga in the final round.

Enjoy the fight.
Tuds

[Mentoch]

I'm 50/50 on the above statement. While I do feel that Vargas is more likely the favorite, I cant in good faith lay odds with him at this stage of his career. To me blood and guts fighters like Vargas, when they fall off the horse, they do it with a thud.

For examples look notably at Arturo Gatti, Diego Corrales, or Erik Morales.

This is a fight that i'm not confident laying money on.

Infact the only place in this fight i see any value would be the +9.5 rounds. Both of these guys have only been stopped before 9 by 3 fighters, Trinidad, De La Hoya and Mosley. None of these guys has the hands speed to truely stop them so soon. I really see this fight going the distance, and I see it being entertaining as hell.

[Tuds75]

Teddy Atlas made a great comment about Mayorga after he fought De La Hoya. Basically Atlas said Mayorga is the kind of fighter you(a good fighter) stores in his pocket for a comeback fight because Mayorga will stand in front and let you punch him. Perfect kind of fighter for Vargas.

Your comment about "blood & guts fighters" can be applied to Mayorga too. He was a fighter who would fight ever minute of ever fight, but Mayorga is 34 years old and has taken some big beatings his last few fights. So a case could be made that Mayorga is the "blood and guts fighter" who fallen off a lot and end the end of his career.

Tuds