Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL

[FGators]

Keep in mind this only works on the NFL because it's the only evidence I have.

Each Sunday, for the last few years, a different Sports writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer (a paper I've been getting my whole life) picks every single NFL game against the line.

This year they have columnist Ashley Fox doing it. She has no sports handicapping history, and though sometimes the 75 year old grandma at the office wins the NCAA pool it's clear that a sports columnist doesn't have the expertise of judging NFL lines.

These sports writers have been consistent losers over the last few years.

I'm debating betting every single game against the columnist for the rest of the season.

Since this columnist has been a consistent loser the first few weeks (and the columnists in the past as well) and that you generally lose to the "house" I'm gonna act as "bookie" in my head and take "her bets" by betting on the opposite team.

Does anybody find this a sound strategy, in the least?

[Thremp]

No.

[SonnyJay]

I guess it's kind of a play on the BSP concept, but if that's your theory there are better ways to do the analysis, IMO.

[dippydoo]

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Since this columnist has been a consistent loser the first few weeks (and the columnists in the past as well)

[/ QUOTE ]

There's something wrong with this statement. Do you see what it is?

Oh, plus there are several other reasons why this is a bad bad plan.

[FGators]

Tell me why this is a bad bad plan

...and are you saying its bad because you think she'll get hot and start to push back to winning closer to half the games?

Obviously the juice is a factor that might cost me money (like she goes 6-10 or 7-9 every week but the juice will catch up to me) but I think there are definitely times where she may be able to go 4-12.

[NajdorfDefense]

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No.

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No.

[EdCota]

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No.

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No.

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[psuasskicker]

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No.

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No.

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[FGators]

Okay then, tell me why you don't think this will work instead of being so smart about it.

Unless she's like this undercover amazing handicapper or something.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay then, tell me why you don't think this will work instead of being so smart about it.

Unless she's like this undercover amazing handicapper or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?