Dr.Bob's 9/28-10/1 Selections

[kdog]

Completely copied and pasted from threads at the Rx for anyone interested who doesn't wish to waste time looking for them over at that cesspool. Fade, follow or ignore as you wish.

NCAA
[ QUOTE ]
4 Star Selection
****RUTGERS (-16.5) 35 Maryland 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Rutgers is a dominating team and the Scarlet Knights are certainly better than they were a year ago. The Rutgers defense has allowed just 3.5 yards per play in their 3 games (to teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense) and the offense is downright explosive this season with Heisman candidate RB Ray Rice (144 yards per game at 5.8 ypr) being over shadowed by quarterback Mike Teel, who has averaged an incredible 15.1 yards per pass play so far this season. Rutgers is not going to continue to average 22.3 yards per completion but Teel would still be averaging 11.3 yppp if the yards per completion were adjusted downward to a more reasonable 17 ypc. Overall the Scarlet Knights’ attack has averaged 526 yards at 8.6 yppl and 46 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppl to an average team. Maryland’s defense is pretty good against the pass (5.2 yppp against teams that would average 5.7 yppp) but the Terrapins won’t be able to stop Ray Rice from having a big day with a defensive front that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp). The real problem for Maryland is an offense that has managed just 4.6 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Rutgers will dominate that unit and gradually pull away for a big win. My ratings favor Rutgers by 24 points and the Scarlet Knights apply to a very good 198-91-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. That indicator is 80-27-1 ATS when applying to home favorites of more than 14 points and I’ll take Rutgers in a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 3-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 points and for 2-Stars at -20 ½ or -21 points.

3 Star Selection
***KENTUCKY (-22.0) 42 Florida Atl. 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Florida Atlantic is 3-1 with a win over Big 10 representative Minnesota, but that win a couple of weeks ago has the Owls overrated heading into this game against a very good Kentucky team. Beating Minnesota is not that big a deal given how bad the Gophers’ defense has been this year (6.8 yppl allowed) and the fact that Florida Atlantic only won that game by 3 points despite being +7 in turnover margin. Actually, to win by only 3 points while being +7 in turnovers is actually a reason to look at that game as a negative for the Owls. The week prior to that gift win was a 6-42 loss at Oklahoma State, which is the kind of result I’m expecting here. Despite being 3-1 Florida Atlantic has actually been out-scored by 2.5 points per game against a schedule that is about 10 points worse than average, and that’s even with the benefit of being +13 in turnover margin. The Owls would be losing by about 15 points per game against that weak schedule if they were even in turnovers and it’s certainly unlikely that they’ll be positive in turnovers against a Kentucky team whose quarterback just set the NCAA record for most passes thrown without an interception. Andre Woodson has thrown only 14 interceptions in 4 years on 894 passes (none this year) for a ridiculously low 1.6% interception rate and that rate is an even lower 1.3% since last season. Without the turnovers in their favor Florida Atlantic won’t be able to compete in this game. The Owls rate at 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) while their defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average. Kentucky has a very good offense that has averaged 6.7 yppl and 47 points per game (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) and the Wildcats are a bit better than average defensively. Kentucky also has a huge advantage in special teams, so don’t be surprised if Kentucky runs back a kick for a touchdown while at the very least being set up with great field position the entire game. My math model favors Kentucky by 32 points in this game and I’ll take Kentucky in a 3-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and for 2-Stars from -23 ½ to -25 points. I’ll also consider the UNDER (67 is the total) a Strong Opinion.

3 Star Selection
***HOUSTON (-11.0) 38 East Carolina 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Houston’s opening 27-48 loss at Oregon doesn’t seem so bad now that the Ducks have proven themselves to be one of the nation’s top-10 teams and the Cougars actually racked up 545 yards in that loss. Houston’s offense has continued their fine play, averaging 6.4 yards per play for the season, and they’ll be even better now that freshman quarterback Case Keenum is entrenched as the starter after sharing duties with sophomore Blake Joseph the first 3 games. Keenum has averaged 7.7 yards per pass play on his 71 pass plays (against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp) and Keenum’s passing combined with the running of Anthony Alridge (1313 yards at 8.8 ypr since last year, 6.4 ypr this season) gives the Cougars a very potent offense and East Carolina’s defense doesn’t appear up to the challenge of containing them (ECU has allowed 6.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). The Pirates are going to give up some points and their offense doesn’t appear capable of keeping up. East Carolina has averaged 4.8 yppl with quarterback Patrick Pinkney under center (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and Houston has been decent defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). My ratings favor Houston by 15 ½ points and East Carolina applies to a very negative 17-66- 3 ATS situation. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ or -14 points.

3 Star Selection
***TOLEDO 33 Western Mich (-1.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Toledo started the season with 3 embarrassing losses, but the Rockets’ upset home win over Iowa State should give them renewed enthusiasm heading into this week. Toledo, in fact, applies to a very good 57-16 ATS home momentum situation that is based on their upset win and the Rockets are now 27-7 ATS in their history at home when not favored by 28 points or more. Western Michigan, meanwhile, applies to a negative 44-82 ATS game 5 situation. These teams are pretty equal on a yards per play basis, as Toledo rates at 0.4 yards per play worse than average on offense and 1.1 yppl worse than average on defense while the Broncos are 1.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively. Western Michigan does have better special teams, but my math model favors Toledo by 1 and the situation is enough to make Toledo a Best Bet. I’ll take Toledo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and I’ll downgrade Toledo to a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or -1 (strong opinion from -1 ½ to -2 ½).

2 Star Selection
**Buffalo 27 BALL ST. (-15.0) 35
09:00 AM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Buffalo was a Strong Opinion loser as a 3 ½ point home dog to Baylor last week, but that was more bad luck than bad play as the Bulls out-gained Baylor 5.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl but were done in by 5 turnovers and a -3 turnover margin. Buffalo had only turned the ball over 4 times in their previous 3 games, so last week’s spread loss was a bit of a fluke. That loss has served to keep the Bulls as an underrated team while Ball State’s near victory against a Nebraska team in a letdown following the USC game has the Cardinals a bit overrated. Buffalo looks like a good play as a big underdog against a Ball State team with a horrible defense. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team and Buffalo can take advantage of that defense. The Bulls seem to have turned the corner in Turner Gill’s second season as head coach and the offense, which improved by 8.3 points in his first season is now about average on a national scale. Buffalo has averaged 5.1 yppl against 4 teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and they averaged 5.7 yppl and 31.5 points against sub-par Temple and Baylor defensive units that are actually 0.7 yppl better than Ball State’s defense. My math model projects 6.2 yppl for Buffalo in this game, which will make it tough for Ball State to pull away even with their good offense. The Cardinals have averaged 6.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but Buffalo isn’t so bad on defense this season with 9 returning starters on that side of the ball. In fact, the Bulls have allowed a respectable 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, Buffalo rates as average on offense and just 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense while Ball State is 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 1.3 yppl worse than average defensively. Buffalo has actually been the better team from the line of scrimmage after compensating for strength of opponent. Ball State is a bit less likely to turn the ball over and the Cardinals are a couple of points better in special teams, but Buffalo looks like a good play getting so many points from a defenseless team. I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +15 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**Kent State (-2.5) 33 OHIO 24
12:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Kent State is a much better team than Ohio and the only reason that hasn’t shown up in the scores of these two teams is because Kent is -9 in turnover margin while Ohio is +7 in turnovers. Kent is not due to become positive in turnovers, but they are likely to be much less negative while Ohio is likely to be much less positive in turnover margin from this point on. With the turnovers not likely to be so disparate in this game the Golden Flashes should win pretty handily, as they are much better on both sides of the ball. Kent has out-gained their opponents 5.5 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively and just 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense after compensating for schedule strength. Ohio, meanwhile, has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl despite facing an easier schedule than Kent has played. The Bobcats are 1.1 yppl worse than average on offense and 1.2 yppl worse than average on defense – so expect Kent to dominate this game from the line of scrimmage. Ohio does have a huge edge in special teams and Kent has a 2 point disadvantage in projected turnovers, but my math model still favors the Golden Flashes by 6 ½ points in this game. Kent also applies to a decent 47-22-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss at Akron. Kent would have to be at least -2 in turnover margin to lose this game, which isn’t likely, so I’ll take Kent State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 3-Stars if they become an underdog.

2 Star Selection
**Florida Intl. 24 MIDDLE TENN (-11.0) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Middle Tennessee State lost to Western Kentucky last week and they shouldn’t be trusted laying big points with a backup quarterback running the offense against a Florida International team that is not as bad as they appear to be. Florida International has played a tough schedule of teams (Penn State, Miami-Florida, Kansas) and they competed well against the only mediocre team that they faced, losing just 10-26 as a 23 ½ point dog at Maryland. The Panthers also lost just 9-23 at Miami-Florida and they’re certainly better defensively than Middle Tennessee’s banged up stop unit. Florida International rates at 0.9 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, has allowed 7.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so the Blue Raiders are 1.6 yppl worse than average defensively. Middle Tennessee’s offense will be led by freshman quarterback Dwight Dasher for a second straight week, as Dasher is filling in for injured veteran starter Joe Craddock, who was having a nice season before injuring his back at LSU. Dasher is a good run (befitting his name), but he averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play last week in the home loss to a Western Kentucky team that would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback. Overall, the Blue Raiders managed just 4.7 yppl against a team that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team in Dasher’s only start. Florida International is certainly not a good offensive team, but their offensive rating of -0.8 yppl is considerably better than Middle Tennessee’s -1.6 yppl defense. What has made Florida International appear to be worse than they are is the 9 fumbles that they’ve lost in 4 games, which is mostly just random bad luck. My math favors Middle Tennessee by only 5 ½ points in this game with Craddock out for the Raiders and FIU applies to a solid 63-24-1 ATS road underdog blowout bounce-back situation. I’ll take Florida International in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +13 or more.

2 Star Selection
**NEW MEXICO 30 BYU (-5.5) 28
05:30 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
New Mexico has won 3 straight games since being upset by UTEP in their opener and the Lobos are in a good spot to continue their winning ways today. New Mexico applies to a very strong 49-8-1 ATS subset of a 147-65-3 ATS home momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 14-46-1 ATS road favorite letdown angle. The Cougars are certainly a worthy opponent with a potent offense and a solid defense, but the BYU defense was torched for 478 yards at 12.3 yards per pass play the Tulsa as a road favorite two weeks ago and New Mexico’s Donovan Porterie, who’s averaged 7.7 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB), is capable of moving the ball through the air in this game. My math model favors BYU by 7 points but the situation is strong enough to give up some line value and I’ll take New Mexico in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 points or more (Strong Opinion at +4 or +4 ½ points).

Strong Opinion
S. FLORIDA 24 West Virginia (-7.0) 27
05:00 PM Pacific, 28-Sep-07
South Florida has already won at Auburn and the Bulls are certainly capable of upsetting West Virginia considering that they beat the Mountaineers 24-19 in Morgantown last season. The Bulls held West Virginia’s vaunted rushing attack to just 154 yards at 4.7 yards per rushing play and allowed just 310 yards at 5.3 yards per play in that game (great considering that West Virginia averaged 7.0 yprp and 7.3 yppl for the season). West Virginia’s offense is just as good this season as it was in 2006, but South Florida’s defense has been even better this season so far, as the Bulls have yielded just 3.4 yprp and 3.3 yppl in their first 3 games (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). The Bulls’ offense has been a bit sluggish, as sophomore quarterback Matt Grothe has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) after averaging 7.1 yppp as a freshman. West Virginia’s defense is good but not great (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average team), so South Florida should be able to move the ball at a decent clip. My ratings favor South Florida by 6 ½ points, so the line is fair, but the Bulls apply to a 59-11 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has won a lot of games for me in recent years. West Virginia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 34-78-1 ATS situation. The only reason that South Florida is not a Best Bet is because West Virginia coach Rich Rodriquez is a perfect 9-0 ATS in conference revenge games. The general situations strongly favoring South Florida are more significant than the team trend favoring West Virginia so I’ll consider South Florida a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Pittsburgh 19 VIRGINIA (-6.0) 20
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Virginia beat Georgia Tech at home last week while Pitt lost at home to U Conn, and those two results have given us plenty of line value on the Panthers. Pitt only lost to Connecticut because they were -5 in turnovers, as the Panthers out-gained a solid Huskies squad 4.7 yards per play to 4.1 yppl. For the season the Panthers have out- gained their opponents 5.1 yppl to 3.7 yppl, which is very good considering their opponents would be out-gained by a combined average of just 0.4 yppl by an average team. The Pittsburgh defense has been especially good and they should have no problems containing a Virginia offense that has averaged only 4.7 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Panthers are starting freshman quarterback Pat Bostick in place of backup Kevan Smith, who had replaced injured starter Bill Stull. Bostick took over in the first half of last week’s game and completed 27 of 41 passes for 230 yards and 3 interceptions. Those aren’t good numbers, but they’re not much worse than what Smith had produced. Virginia’s defense has been only slightly better than average so far (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but the Cavaliers are well below average overall from the line of scrimmage (-0.9 yppl on offense and +0.1 yppl on defense) while Pitt has been very good in compensated yards per play differential. My math model favors Pitt by 4 ½ points in this game, but Virginia has always played much better at home under coach Al Groh (27- 12 ATS) than they have on the road (12-23 ATS). If I only used Virginia’s two home games the math would favor the Cavs by 1 point and Bostick would have to throw 3 interceptions in this game for Pittsburgh not to be likely to cover. That may happen but it’s likely that the freshman will make better decisions with a full week of getting first team reps. I’m a little hesitant to call for a Best Bet with a freshman quarterback on the road making his first start, but Pitt has a strong defense that should at least keep this close even if Bostick really struggles. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion
TULSA (-21.0) 49 UAB 23
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Tulsa lost 21-62 at home to Oklahoma last Friday night but lost in that blowout was the fact that quarterback Paul Smith lit up a very good Oklahoma pass defense for over 300 yards at 7.4 yards per pass play. Smith is now averaging 10.0 yppp for the season (against teams that would combine to allow only 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Tulsa actually has the nation’s best compensated pass offense and it’s scary to think of what kind of numbers Smith might put up against a UAB defense that’s surrendered 7.8 yppp to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. The Blazers gave up 9.5 yppp to both Michigan State and Florida State, who have proven to be only slightly better than average passing teams. Tulsa’s defense has been victimized the last two weeks by the very good offensive units of BYU and Oklahoma (allowed 7.8 yards per play and 109 total points), but the Hurricanes gave up only 4.4 yppl to a UL Monroe offense that’s better than UAB’s sorry attack (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Blazers, meanwhile, scored just 22 points against Alcorn State, whose defense is certainly worse than Tulsa’s defense. Tulsa applies to a solid 75-29-2 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation and I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

NFL
[ QUOTE ]
DALLAS (-12.5) 28 St. Louis 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Rams’ offensive line is horrible and that has caused problems with both the rushing attack (3.6 ypr) and the passing attack (5.2 yards per pass play) and I just don’t see them keeping up with a potent Dallas attack that has averaged 6.9 yards per play and just ripped up the Bears’ stout defense on Monday night. My ratings favor Dallas by 14 points in this game and using only games from this season would result in a projection of Dallas by 21 points. The Cowboys apply to a negative 45-108 ATS statistical profile indicator but I just can’t back the Rams.


MINNESOTA 17 Green Bay (-1.5) 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Packers have started the season at 3-0, but they’ve only out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 5.1 yppl in those 3 games. All 3 teams that the Packers have beaten are 1-2 on the season, but I do rate their schedule as considerably tougher than average given that Philadelphia and San Diego are presumably better than their records. I do rate Green Bay as a solidly better than average team because their young defense has gone from promising to very good this season, but the offense is actually just barely better than average thanks to the absence of a rushing attack (just 58 yards per game at 3.1 ypr). Brett Favre has played well in the Packers’ last two games, but he’s averaging a mediocre 6.2 yards per pass play for the season and I rate Favre at only 0.3 yppp better than average after compensating for opposing pass defenses. Favre and company will have trouble scoring in this game against a dominating Vikings defense that’s allowed just 4.5 yppl. Minnesota’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback (based on his lifetime yppp numbers) but I rate the Vikings as a bit better than average overall thanks to their strong defense and better than average special teams. My ratings favor Minnesota by 1 point in this game and I like the Vikings even more thanks to a negative 20-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies to Green Bay after last week’s upset home win. Minnesota, meanwhile, applies to a 107-44-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Vikings have the characteristics of a good home underdog. Unfortunately, Minnesota also applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. That week 4 angle is not nearly as strong as the angles favoring the Vikings, but its enough to keep me off Minnesota as a Best Bet at the current price. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of +3 or more (at -115 odds or better).


Chicago (-2.5) 23 DETROIT 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Lovie Smith has finally made the decision to bench ineffective quarterback Rex Grossman for veteran Brian Griese, whose career 6.1 yards per pass play average and 3.4% interception rate is better than Grossman’s career averages of 5.8 yppp and 4.2% interceptions (4.3 yppp and 6.7% int this season). The Bears’ offense should go from horrible to just a little below average and their defense should bounce back from their bad outing last Monday night against an explosive Dallas attack. Detroit’s offense will certainly present a good challenge, as the Lions are averaging a robust 6.1 yards per play this season against 3 solid defensive teams (Oakland, Minnesota, and Philly). However, throwing the ball over 50 times per game has led to 2 interceptions thrown per contest for quarterback Jon Kitna and the Lions’ defense isn’t good enough to keep opponents from taking advantage of turnovers. In fact, the Lions’ defense has been horrible in allowing 6.4 yppl and that’s more than just a product of last week’s 9.5 yppl allowed to the Eagles. Detroit also gave up 5.1 yppl to the bad offensive units of Oakland and Minnesota, who would combine to average about 4.7 yppl against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Chicago by 6 points with Griese at the controls (would have favored the Bears by 3 points with Grossman), but the Bears apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS week 4 situation. I’ll call for a 3 point Chicago victory.


ATLANTA 20 Houston (-2.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Super Bowl champion Colts last week. Atlanta has started the season with 3 straight losses by an average score of 10-21. While is seems obvious to take Houston, you should note that Atlanta has only been out-gained by 9 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play to 5.8 yppl, which is far from being horrible. Houston has gained and allowed 5.4 yppl but the Texans are a below average offensive team with star WR Andre Johnson out of action for a second straight week, as Matt Schaub simply has no other legitimate downfield targets. After averaging over 8 yards per pass play in each of the first two games with Johnson in the lineup the Texans averaged a mediocre 5.9 yppp last week against the Colts and Houston is now without top running back Ahman Green, who has averaged a solid 4.3 ypr. The rest of the running backs are all at 3.0 ypr or less, so the Texans offense isn’t looking very good in its current state. My ratings favor Houston by only 1 point in this game and Atlanta applies to a very good 83-38-3 ATS situation while Houston applies to a negative 123-184-18 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Texans have the characteristics of a bad road favorite. Unfortunately, the Falcons also apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS game 4 situation but the technical analysis is still in favor of Atlanta overall. I like Atlanta plus the points and I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.


Baltimore (-4.0) 23 CLEVELAND 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Baltimore 23 Cleveland 17 if no TE Winslow for Cleveland
The Browns are a pretty decent team with Derek Anderson at quarterback, which has made up for a bad defense. Anderson has averaged a healthy 7.2 yards per pass play on 100 pass plays this season and his lifetime average of 6.4 yppp (on 225 pass plays) is enough evidence to suggest that he could be the real deal – although his interception rate continues to be far too high (4 in 98 attempts this year). Cleveland’s defense is not good but the Ravens have been struggling offensively (just 5.0 yards per play) and quarterback Steve McNair is not 100% healthy (he’s had to be replaced in all 3 games this season by less effective backup Kyle Boller. My ratings favor Baltimore by 4 ½ points is McNair plays the entire game at his normal effectiveness, which isn’t likely. I’ll pass on this one, although I’d lean with Baltimore if Cleveland TE Kellen Winslow is downgraded from questionable to doubtful or out with his injured shoulder.


MIAMI (-4.0) 19 Oakland 18
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Oakland finally broke their long losing streak by blocking the game winning field goal against Cleveland last week and that win should have the Raiders emotionally up this week as they prepare for the Dolphins. In fact, the Raiders apply to a very good 40-11-1 ATS situation that is based on that victory while Miami applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. While the situational analysis is strongly in favor the Oakland the line value is not. Miami may be 0-3, but the Dolphins have gained 5.7 yards per play and allowed 5.2 yppl against a tougher than average schedule (Washington, Dallas and the Jets). Oakland, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.4 yppl to 6.2 yppl by an average schedule (Detroit, Denver, and Cleveland). The Raiders have also been bad on special teams and my ratings favor Miami by 7 points in this game. Daunte Culpepper takes over at quarterback for the Raiders, but he’s averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play in 2-plus seasons without being able to throw to Randy Moss, so he’s not necessarily an upgrade over Josh McCown. The situations are strong enough to get me leaning with the Raiders plus the points.


NY Jets (-3.5) 23 BUFFALO 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bills may have caught a break with the injury to starting quarterback J.P. Losman, as Losman had averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards per pass play in the first 2 games and one play (he was injured on his first pass attempt). Rookie backup Trent Edwards averaged only 4.2 yppp on his 21 pass play, but that’s not all that bad for being thrown into the game without first team reps in practice and facing a tough Patriots’ defense on the road. Buffalo has a pretty good rushing attack and the Jets’ pass defense is so bad (8.0 yppp allowed) that Edwards could have pretty decent success in his first start. The Bills defense isn’t good either, but the 6.8 yards per play that they allowed came against 3 good offensive teams in Denver, Pittsburgh, and New England that have averaged a combined 6.5 yppl on offense this season. My ratings favor New York by only 1 ½ points and I’ll lean with Buffalo plus the points.


CAROLINA (-3.0) 23 Tampa Bay 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
David Carr will get the start at quarterback for injured starter Jake Delhomme and that is a downgrade for the Panthers, as Carr has been a below average quarterback in all but one season during his 5 seasons as a starter in Houston. Carolina has a good rushing attack, so their offense is still about average even with Carr, but Tampa Bay has a solid defense (4.8 yards per play allowed). Tampa’s offense has been the story, however, as Jeff Garcia has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play without throwing an interception this season. Carolina has been a bit worse than average defensively through 3 games and my ratings make this game a pick. Sadly, I cannot take the points with the underrated Bucs because Tampa applies to a negative 47-92-4 ATS road letdown situation. I’ll pass on this one.


SAN FRANCISCO 21 Seattle (-2.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The 49ers beat the Seahawks in both games last season and I’ll lean with them to do so again. I was actually a bit surprised that Seattle was favored in this game, as I still don’t consider them anything more than an average team. In fact, the Seahawks have averaged 5.8 yards per play this season and they’ve allowed 5.8 yppl to a schedule of average strength. San Francisco has been worse than average so far this season, producing just 4.2 yppl while allowing 5.3 yppl, but the Niners’ offense is surely better than what they’ve shown so far after being a slightly better than average attack in 2006. My ratings favor San Francisco by 1 point and I’d consider the 49ers a Strong Opinion if the line goes to +3 points (at -115 odds or better).


INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 27 Denver 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Broncos barely beat bad teams Buffalo and Oakland and then were beaten 14-23 by a good Jacksonville team in Denver. What’s odd about Denver is that they’ve been out-scored 17.3 points to 19.0 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 6.4 yards per play to 4.5 yppl. There has certainly been bad special teams play, but Denver should certainly be scoring more than they have been given how well they move the ball. The Colts look like a better overall team than last year’s Super Bowl champs, as their great offense (6.5 yppl) is being complimented by a good defensive unit that’s allowed just 4.7 yppl. My ratings favor Indy by 8 ½ points, so the line looks a bit too high.


SAN DIEGO (-11.5) 21 Kansas City 14
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
What is going on the with Chargers? Could it be the Norv Turner affect? Turner has a way of ruining teams when he takes over as a head coach, but I just don’t see how Turner is to blame for LaDainian Tomlinson averaging 2.3 ypr. Afterall, Turner helped put this offense together when he worked for the Chargers a few years ago and they’re running the same scheme that they ran so successfully last season. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a sub-par year so far too, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass play (6.7 yppp last season). The San Diego defense is also not playing as well, as that unit has yielded 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I do expect the Chargers to start playing better, but so do the oddsmakers given the line on this game. Kansas City is struggling offensively as expected (4.3 yppl, but against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) but the Chiefs’ defense has given up just 4.5 yppl this season and is clearly better than average even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. That defense should keep this game relatively close and my ratings favor San Diego by only 9 points - and the math would favor the Chargers by only 11 points if I used last year’s offensive and defensive numbers for San Diego. San Diego does apply to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 situation and I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.


Pittsburgh (-5.5) 23 ARIZONA 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Matt Leinart was horrible last week before getting relieved by veteran Kurt Warner, who brought the Cardinals back from a huge deficit to tie the game against the Ravens before losing on a late field goal. Leinart will be back as the starter this week and the Cardinals have a below average offense with the second year quarterback at the controls. Arizona’s defense has been pretty good (5.1 yppl allowed) but they’ll have a tough time stopping a Pittsburgh attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and has rushed for 199 yards per game at 5.8 ypr. The Steelers’ first two games were against bad defensive teams Cleveland and Buffalo, but Pittsburgh racked up 6.5 yppl last week against a solid 49ers defense. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.3 yppl to 3 below average offensive teams (Cleveland with Frye at quarterback, Buffalo, and SF) but they’re an above average unit even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 6 points and there are situations going against each team.


Philadelphia (-2.5) 27 NY GIANTS 26
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Both of these teams got their first win last week and both teams will be fighting to avoid a 1-3 start. I rated the Eagles as the best team in the NFC heading into this season and I still think that is the case (only Dallas is even in the discussion). The Eagles busted out offensively last week and McNabb and company should enjoy more success tonight against a Giants defense that’s allowed 6.1 yards per play this season. New York has actually played at a decent level the last two weeks on defense after getting overwhelmed in Dallas in their opener, but I still rate New York’s stop unit as slightly worse than average. New York’s offense has looked very good, as the rushing attack has been effective (4.7 ypr) and Eli Manning is showing signs of being a better than average quarterback (6.1 yards per pass play against a tough trio of defensive teams). Philadelphia has a better than average defense and they should be able to contain Manning and company in this game. My ratings favor Philly by 5 ½ points in this game, but New York applies to a solid 84-42-4 ATS momentum situation and that angle will get me leaning with the Giants.


New England (-7.5) 28 CINCINNATI 19
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-01 - Stats Matchup
It seems pretty obvious that New England’s unbelievably good offense (6.8 yards per play and 38 points in all 3 games) will score at will against a soft Cincy defense that’s allowed 6.4 yppl and 32 points per game. However, Cincinnati’s numbers have been skewed by one really bad game against Cleveland (9.0 yppl) and the Bengals actually allowed just 5.1 yppl combined in games against Baltimore and Seattle, so their defense really isn’t as bad as their season to date numbers would suggest. Cincinnati’s offense is once again one of the league’s best units, but the Patriots are playing great defense this season and have allowed just 3.9 yppl (although to teams that have combine to average just 4.3 yppl combined this season), so they ought to slow down the Bengals attack and win this game rather handily. My ratings favor New England by 9 points and using this year’s stats only would in a projection of Pats by 14 points. New England has won and covered all 3 of their games so far but teams that are 3-0 SU and ATS are only 13-23-2 ATS on the road in game 4, including 6-18-1 ATS in non-divisional games. I doubt that the Patriots will suffer a letdown but they’re unlikely to keep playing as well as they have. My ratings are based on realistic levels of play for the Patriots and I’ll call for a 9 point win.


[/ QUOTE ]

[bot1478]

I cant find these at RX. What name or thread are they posted at?

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]


NCAA
[ QUOTE ]
4 Star Selection
****RUTGERS (-16.5) 35 Maryland 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07

3 Star Selection
***KENTUCKY (-22.0) 42 Florida Atl. 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Sep-07

3 Star Selection
***HOUSTON (-11.0) 38 East Carolina 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07

3 Star Selection
***TOLEDO 33 Western Mich (-1.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07

2 Star Selection
**Buffalo 27 BALL ST. (-15.0) 35
09:00 AM Pacific, 29-Sep-07

2 Star Selection
**Florida Intl. 24 MIDDLE TENN (-11.0) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07

2 Star Selection
**NEW MEXICO 30 BYU (-5.5) 28
05:30 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07


[/ QUOTE ]


Wow, DrBob had a really rough week, small sample obvs.
3 Big Faves lose outright, all 3 or 4-star picks.

[wiper]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant find these at RX. What name or thread are they posted at?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's my question too..can someone PM me a link to where i can find his weekly writeups? not that i'm going to blindly follow everything, but i like to read as much as possible..

[brendanb438]

The RX has a thread every week labeled Paid Picks or Service Picks. You will find a bunch of different paid touts picks ripped from sites and posted there. Screw touts. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[calmB4storm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I cant find these at RX. What name or thread are they posted at?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's my question too..can someone PM me a link to where i can find his weekly writeups? not that i'm going to blindly follow everything, but i like to read as much as possible..

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you guys seriously retarded? It's like the biggest thread in the forum.
Not sure if this is allowed, Performify please delete if you want... http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=515246

[Austiger]

"the Scarlet Knights are certainly better than they were a year ago."

Yes, Dr. Bob. Certainly.

[Nonfiction]

Wow he lost almost every NFL game as well

[NajdorfDefense]

Oh well, I'm sure he's not posting any 'wrong-way' picks and then getting the lines 3pts better on the other side of ECU, Troy, Toledo, etc. Right?
Right?!

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh well, I'm sure he's not posting any 'wrong-way' picks and then getting the lines 3pts better on the other side of ECU, Troy, Toledo, etc. Right?
Right?!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he bets his picks at all, which I think says a lot of conviction for his numbers. But if you can charges thousands for a newsletter... Why bother betting if you think you might be a winner?