$$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$

[Austiger]

Here is my breakdown. I don't really feel good about what happened this weekend, even though I won a small amount. I missed a ton of money on the bets I didn't make and the last set of games on Saturday (and Boise on Sunday) went incredibly wrong. I'm not going to look at the lines for a few days and wait till after Dr. Bob to make any bets.

This week +2.8 units
17-15 sides/totals +1.7u
2-3 MLs +1.1u

YTD +18.5 units
77-55 sides/totals +18.9 units
2-4 MLs -0.4 units

One promising thing is that I was 7-2 on halftimes this week and 19-7 on the year. Even still, I am not as diligent on those as I could be.

[NajdorfDefense]

There's probably some value in making picks on paper now, and then hitting all the lines that move in your favor when DrBob moves them. I'm trying to make fewer pix early this week to take advantage of that.

[pirateboy]

3-6-1 week for me ... rough 2 weeks; hopefully I can turn it around this season.

[CarlSpackler]

A disastrous week for Dr. Bob and his followers:

4* UCLA - loss
3* GTech - loss
3* Georgia - loss
3* Nebraska - loss
3* Florida - win
2* Mich. St. - loss
2* Rutgers - loss
2* Arizona - loss

That's a 1 - 7 record on his best bets. -16 *'s.

Of all the losses, only GTech and Rutgers were remotely close to covering. The rest of the games were blowout city.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Many moons ago, there was a thread that many successful 2p2 gamblers actually volunteered their ROIs and whatnot. Of course, Thremp pwned all. IIRC, mine was the lowest of the regular gamblers by a significant margin. My ROI is 0.4%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arbaments. But I think yours was tainted by a decent number of bridge jumpers.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
A disastrous week for Dr. Bob and his followers:

4* UCLA - loss
3* GTech - loss
3* Georgia - loss
3* Nebraska - loss
3* Florida - win
2* Mich. St. - loss
2* Rutgers - loss
2* Arizona - loss

That's a 1 - 7 record on his best bets. -16 *'s.

Of all the losses, only GTech and Rutgers were remotely close to covering. The rest of the games were blowout city.

[/ QUOTE ]

and I was on LSU v FLorida [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

but also had Maryland v G Tech, Cincy v Rutgers, Org St v Zona [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[CarlSpackler]

An explanation from our good friend Dr. Bob:


[ QUOTE ]
This has truly been the stangest season of college football I can remember, as top 10 teams are dropping games on a regular basis and I've lost 3 straight weeks after winning 63.5% of my College Best Bets the last 3 years and 58% the last decade. I suffered my worst week on my College Football Best Bets since 2003, as my Best Bets went just 2-7 and 5-19 on a Star Basis with wins on Florida and Auburn (which became a 2-Star Best Bet when the line moved down to -7 at 8:47 am Pacific on Saturday) and losses on Southern Miss, Michigan Staet, Nebraska, Georgia, Arizona, Georgia Tech, and UCLA. I am now an unthinkable 10-19 on my College Best Bets this season and 24-50 on a Star Basis. I'm using the same math model and situational analysis that has worked so well for me over the years and all I can do is continue to work hard and use the same methods that have always worked. My Strong Opinions went 6-2 on the week (wins on Utah, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Fresno State, Ohio State, and Middle Tennessee and losses on Rutgers and Arizona State) and I certainly wish I had made more of those Best Bets.

I know it's hard to have faith in my Best Bets after 3 bad weeks, but I've shown in recent years that I can make up my losses pretty quickly. Those clients that have been with me in recent years certainly remember my 6 straight winning weeks last season (from week 3 through week 8) when I went 68-29-5 on a Star Basis. Or, my 7 straight winning weeks in 2005 (week 1 through week 7) when I was 63-19-2 on a Star Basis. And my 6 straight winning weeks in 2004 (week 3 through 8) in which I was 62-27-2 on a Star Basis - so I can certainly turn this season around pretty quickly. Another streak like that this year and I'll have yet another winning season despite the last 3 weeks of bad results.

It is certainly the case that my 57% college Best Bet win percentage on over 1500 Best Bets in 20 years is more significant evidence of my ability than the 10-19 record on a sample of just 29 Best Bets. I know you're not really concerned with how I've done in past years because you're losing this year (unless you were fortunate enough to have been a client in recent years), but my long term 57% winning record is more indicative of my future success than my 10-19 record so far this season and the future is all that matters at this point as nothing can be done about the losses I've suffered so far this season. I've overcome bad streaks before and I'll overcome this one as well. I may not end this season with a winning record given my bad start but I'm very likely to have a winning record from this point on given my long term win percentage.

Don't make the mistake of giving up on me now,
Dr Bob

[/ QUOTE ]

[NajdorfDefense]

20 years, huh? Funny how the WSJ only quoted since 1999.

'Since 1999, Bob Stoll has recommended 658 bets on college football, or about 81 per season. Here are his results. (When betting against a point spread in Las Vegas, bettors must win 52.4% of their wagers to make a profit.)'

According to him, he made another 800 bets that the Journal didn't feel were worth mentioning. Hmmmm. Or that he's been losing 3 out of last 5 years now.

Anyone want to run the odds against a 53% winrate hitting 57% after 1500 bets? 30-1? 90-1? 200-1?

[MicroBob]

WSJ could have misconstrued the facts that I assume they got mostly from him in the first place. So I wouldn't look too much into that.

But Dr. Bob's excuse-laden apology does strike me as pretty weird. Either people are going to continue to follow and believe in you or they aren't.
I admit I would believe in him more if his recent results were super-spectacular regardless of some of the weird trend stuff he pushes forth in his picks. But now that his picks are going that badly it really makes some of that trend-stuff and emphasis on yppl stick out.

If his apology is to be taken at face-value then it appears he is just grinding forward with the same kind of approach he had before...instead of wonerding if perhaps he's really reaching on some of these trends he's spotting.

Somebody in one of the threads mentioned something about teams playing their first 4 games at home and how they performed in that 5th game coming on the road.
Wow, it really does get pretty ridiculous with him some of the time, doesn't it?

Some of the trends seem pretty legit to me. But I really wonder about his ability to differentiate those between some of the trends that he almost has to be putting WAY too much faith in.

[Crusher19]

take houston at home vs rice for one unit
houston is -21