$$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$

[Austiger]

Okay, you edited the games. I like some of those. Hopefully that's not a bad sign.

[NajdorfDefense]

To tank 10% of the time? No. You could make way more $$$ going the other way occasionally if you will run 58% the other 9 years, let's say. That's still 56.4% win-rate. [feel free to adjust #s using his, 57-58% iirc]

Then, the year [or every 9-10th week] you tank, you're getting ND 2.5 pts better, LSU at -7 instead of -8.5, OrgSt at -3 instead of 4-4.5, Tech at 3, UK at +6 instead of +3.5 -- I know you know this adds up to huge +EV. The $$$ to be made >>> $1k CFB subscriber or whatever, plus the people who understand the long-term will still stay around.

And you can tip off heavy bettors on top of that. Not saying he does, just that it's a possibility for anyone who moves the lines. Or he's running cold. Or he over-fitted his models in the off-season. Or added the wrong variable. etc.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
it's more like I have my own numbers and they've aligned with Dr Bob quite a bit over the past few years

This year, my numbers differ with him on nearly every pick...sometimes dramatically

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice how many plays he's moved down to -3 or less lately, and those he's moved over 10, 14, and 21 in recent weeks? Anyone else find that odd - like Troy last week he moved from 11 to 7.5/8, etc.
MTSU, RU, Utah, Auburn, Fresno, Neb, ND, Zona, Fla, GT.

The more I think about it, the less it seems like a coincidence. Just take opposite side on a few games you've pushed thru key numbers....undetectable. And lines move so fast most subscribers can't get the best line, so if they take a bad line it's their fault anyways.

[wiper]

"drbob is having a horrible year. Rice is winning big right now. This pick is worst than his 4** Rutgers pick over Maryland by 30. Time to fade this fading handicapper. The books aren't even worried about DrBob."

response from the dr. bob thread elsewhere...

hmmm...

[mmbt0ne]

Wow, UGA has come all the way back to be a one point favorite.

[iggymcfly]

Rather than picking an entire year to tank, wouldn't Dr. Bob be better off just picking the wrong side on a couple games each week where the line's moving that direction anyway?

Say the public's going to be betting on Road Favorite U close to game time. Well since Dr. Bob's going to be betting later in the week anyway, he could do a backwards pick there and go for the full benefit while still releasing real picks on all the games where he found soft opening lines.

Even if the subscriber fees are negligible (which I really doubt that they are), it's still stupid to slay the golden goose and ruin all of your future ability to move the lines by doing all your fade picks at once.

[Austiger]

Naj- Do you have Dr Bob's writeup for the Auburn game?

[SunOfBeach]

Kentucky+3.5 1/2u LOSS
Kentucky+150 1/2u LOSS
RUTGERS -3 1u
ILLINOIS -2.5 1u
PURDUE+7 1/2u
PURDUE+230 1/2u
Arizona St -8.5 1u
Utah+14 1u

[nhoj]

Three winners for you. Yeah I am new here so I figure I give you a gift.

Wisc +2.5 5 units
Cin +4 5 units
Kan +3 5 units
<u>Remember play with your head and not over it!!!</u> Remember play with your head and not over it!!!

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
Naj- Do you have Dr Bob's writeup for the Auburn game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is playing their first road game after 4 home games and the Commodores apply to a negative 23-57-3 ATS situation that plays against road teams after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Auburn has struggled offensively this season so far (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Brandon Cox has proven the last two years that he’s certainly capable of playing better. Vanderbilt does have a solid defense but the Commodores’ offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (0.2 yppl worse than average with Chris Nickson under center) and Auburn’s defense has allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit. The loss of DE Quentin Groves is worth 1.5 points based on my analysis but my math model still favors Auburn by 10 points and the situation is favorable. The only negative is Vanderbilt’s 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog the previous 3 seasons, but I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.