Boxing This Weekend: August 4th

[Tuds75]

Rafael Marquez -281
Israel Vazquez +261

This rematch might have a chance at fight of the year, but then again their first match-up could have been FOY if it went the distance or if not for the stoppage.

Marquez is a beast and a tear, but I think he odds are way to high in this fight. Vazquez is a very good fighter and was given Marquez a fight in their previous bout, even knocking Marquez down. Vazquez is fighter who takes punches, but is willing to do so to be able to land his punches and Vazquez can end a fight on a single punch, so I guess it makes sense as long as someone is willing to take a beating.

The price on Vazquez is great at +260 also +575 for TKO/KO/DQ prop. I would figure anything about +175 would be a steal for Vazquez. Don't get me wrong is absolutely the dog in this fight, but he has a VERY good chance of winning and this line should be closer. If you are big on Vazquez winning and want to gamble some take the +575, I would guess the if Vazquez wins the fight the majority of the time it will be by KO.

I see this fight going one of 2 ways: 1)Vazquez and Marquez exchange many landed punches and Vazquez catching Marquez and getting the KO. 2) Marquez comes out on fire and on point and walks right through Vazquez. This ending is basically Marquez by domination and ends in a 5-6 round KO.

Needless to say I also like the UNDER at -161, but that price is about right because a DEC would not surprise me a whole lot, but with 2 powerful punches like Marquez and Vazquez a KO is always very likely.

Enjoy the Fight, its on Showtime, and Showtime has been great at giving the fans exciting fights.

Tuds

[zstratt]

Tuds,
Under how many rounds? Most the lines I've seen have it at 8 1/2 which I like the over. To me that's the only bet in this fight. I think Marquez is going to win, but not at that price.

[ThaHero]

I just saw the first fight this week. I didn't realize they were fighting tomorrow. I'm definately gonna try to catch this fight. The first one was great.

Tuds- how is Vazquez's nose? I remember them saying he broke it in the fight before Marquez, and then of course he broke it again in their last fight. This could be a good reason to either bet the under or bet Marquez to win by TKO. Also, is Freddie Roach still his trainer?

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
Tuds,
Under how many rounds? Most the lines I've seen have it at 8 1/2 which I like the over. To me that's the only bet in this fight. I think Marquez is going to win, but not at that price.

[/ QUOTE ]

9.5 rounds.

Sorry for leaving that out. Still a tough call. Like I said if Marquez wins he does it early, Vasquez is known for later round "comeback" KO's.

Tuds

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
I just saw the first fight this week. I didn't realize they were fighting tomorrow. I'm definately gonna try to catch this fight. The first one was great.

Tuds- how is Vazquez's nose? I remember them saying he broke it in the fight before Marquez, and then of course he broke it again in their last fight. This could be a good reason to either bet the under or bet Marquez to win by TKO. Also, is Freddie Roach still his trainer?

[/ QUOTE ]

Vazquez's nose will be fine, lots of fighter break their noses, Vazquez's looked worse because the bones around the nose (orbital) looked to have been damaged. I would think Vazquez would not have taken his fight if he wasn't in 100% also I got to assume Vazquez has had that nose broken before the way he takes punishment.

Both Vazquez and Marquez have not fought since their initial fight. So Vazquez suffered the injury then and it was never re-injured.

Tuds

[NajdorfDefense]

So, I should take Marquez -227?

[Tuds75]

Yes if for nothing more then a scalp on an other site where he will be closer to -300.

That is still more then I would put Marquez at, but it looks like the best line out there. I just don't think Marquez is a 1/2 favorite in this fight.

Tuds

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
So, I should take Marquez -227?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like Marquez at -227. This line is available at Sports Interaction, although a draw is a loss there. Also, there is a $550 max bet.

Marquez was repeatedly able to hit Vazquez very cleanly in the first fight, and I felt that it was not as close as most make it out to be. I'll allow that it's true that Vazquez is very tough and has been known to come on late. In fact, he was getting pasted pretty good by Jhonny Gonzalez, when he came back and simply crushed him.

Still, Marquez has fast, heavy hands and is very technically sound offensively. I think he will just land too many heavy punches.

As a side note, I have read that Vazquez's injury was not a broken nose. I read two different versions of what the injury actually was. One said that he suffered a blockage due to crushed cartilage and skin (sounds like a broken nose to me??). The other said that he suffered some kind of condition where the cells of the nose shut down due to blunt force drama (no idea what they were talking about).

Whatever it was, he has had cartilage removed from his nose (which is a pretty big beak for a boxer).

Diaz-Morales

I also like David Diaz in his fight against Morales tonight. I think Morales is well past his prime, and fighting at 135 is far from optimal for him.

The best line I saw was a prop on 5Dimes where you can bet Diaz +100 to win on Lederman's scorecard ($250 max bet).

The second best line I saw is at Olympic, where you can get Diaz -110.

Inexplicably, this bout is on HBO PPV, so you're better off watching the superior bout on Showtime. I would like to see what could very well be Morales' last fight, but I am not gonna pay to see a shot fighter take on a limited (though larger) opponent.

[NajdorfDefense]

i read that it was a cartilage injury as well. Not good.

[TomCowley]

Thanks for the heads-up. I would have put a unit on Vazquez straight up, but the KO prop was even more out of whack, even when I got it at +530. The KO/decision percentage of ~57%KO ~43%decision for Vazquez wins (from the KO and Dec props) was ridiculously underestimating KO.