2008 Presidential primaries thread

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]

Mitt Romney - I put him at about %10 to win.

Positioning - He is the Hillary Clinton of the GOP. He is the most moderate candidate and will likely attract GOP moderates with his pro-gay, pro-choice positions.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if you have been corrected yte, but he flipped on both those issues a year back when de decided he wanted to run. I saw him on CNBC on wednesday night and he was anti-gay marriage, anti abortion.

[Howard Treesong]

I think one intersting theme will be Mitt's Mormonism. I haven't heard the man speak and so can't pass any judgment on his charisma, but he's clearly very very smart and very deep. But the church of LDS is regarded by many as a borderline cult, and I'm waiting to see if and how he gets attacked for it and how he responds.

[cobrakai111]

[ QUOTE ]
I think one intersting theme will be Mitt's Mormonism. I haven't heard the man speak and so can't pass any judgment on his charisma, but he's clearly very very smart and very deep. But the church of LDS is regarded by many as a borderline cult, and I'm waiting to see if and how he gets attacked for it and how he responds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can vouch for him being a fairly brilliant speaker. I've worked at a few events he's spoke at and when he's on he can be very captivating. He actually got to the point where he would constantly make fun of himself for never being around in MA and would start off some speeches saying that it was "great to be in Iowa." That being said I think he's a giant "flip-flopper" used MA purely as a stepping stone and hasn't proven that he is capable of leading anyone, especially in a time of war.

[chessknight]

Does anybody else think that the Republicans are hyping up Obama for the Dem. primaries because they feel he's the only candidate they can crush in the general election?

[bisonbison]

My take:

Republicans: Where is the conservative candidate?

McCain: 60% chance of nomination.
Giant warchest. Gravitas. Widely distrusted among the primary base, has lashed himself to the failing war, ancient. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. 2000 McCain can't win in the primaries, and now he can't win the general unless the surge is a massive success. It's his nomination to lose.

Romney: 10% nod
Not evangelical. Not a movement conservative. No home-region support. Charismatic. If he emerges as a compromise pick, he will be a disaster for the GOP. Two MA role models: John Kerry, "flip-flopper". Mike Dukakis, landslide victim.

Guliani: 30% nod
Most socially liberal of GOP candidates by far, and it's too late for him to change his story on most of these. Best national name recognition. Still bathing in 9/11 sepia tones. Can the GOP in 2006 nominate a pro-choice, pro-gun control candidate? Expect McCain to rip him to shreds in primary season. If he can grab the nod, can be a very real threat in the general.

Brownback or Huckabee: no chance for nod, but look for VP.
No. Either can help position himself for a 2012 bid with a VP-slot showing that hits the GOP base.


Democrats: Who gets triangulated out?

Hillary Clinton: 35% nod
God's own lightning rod. Warchest. Relentless. No more gotchas to be gotten with, just the same old beating sticks. Hard to imagine a more divisive figure in current american politics. Hated by 1/3 of the country. Resented by her own party for not being more charismatic (see also John Kerry). The media will not crown her unless she crushes in the primaries. Can she win the general?

John Edwards: 25% nod
Just a pretty face? Still not clear. Did nothing to help Kerry in 2004. Stench of failure. Home region support iffy. Not a wonk, not a zealot, nothing but speeches since 2004. Appealing alternative to Hillary. Running on populist, unionist image. Compromise between white woman, black guy = white guy. Early media underdog.

Obama 35% nod
Will absolutely kill on the stump. Behind in money, organization. Flimsy record is not an asset and not a liability. Good PR instincts. Early media darling. Untested: green as the green green grass of home.

Kucinich: Ha. 0% nod

Richardson: 5% nod
No name recognition. Easy VP nod if Obama loses and can't/won't take it.

[Aloysius]

Bison - nice round-up, thanks for it.

[ QUOTE ]
Obama 35% nod
Will absolutely kill on the stump.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on other comments in this thread, and from what I've seen, psyched to see this guy get to work. Should be very interesting.

-Al

[XXXNoahXXX]

[ QUOTE ]
don't forget my boy mitt romney.



it takes some doing for a republican to become governer of mass, considering hes from, lived, and paid taxes in Utah.. i don't think he has much national name recognition though, he is a mormon, and he let a big hunk of concrete crush a lady to death which might be a hard sell for the large christian republican voting bloc.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Mitt Romney has got to be one of the dumbest people I have ever seen. He saved the Salt Lake City Olympics! The middle east will be a cinch!

I think Deval should wait 4/8 yrs and then he can run for POTUS with Deval Patrick as his running mate. Support the brothers!

I really don't understand black people and what a lot have to say about Obama. I was watching a lady the other night on the Daily Show and she was summing up a lot of what I've heard, that "he doesn't share a common slave-based black heritage." He's not of West-African to slave descent. WTF? I mean itd be all well and could if Frederick Douglas IV could run, or Sojourner Truth's great grandkid, but how about recognizing a step in the right direction? Black people talk about Obama as a candidate that white people can use to pat themselves on the back for supporting, but come on, he is black. People view him as of a different race and he's probably been treated as such his whole life. Gimme a [censored] break.

[ahnuld]

I really like Romneys economic advisor Greg Mankiw. He writes in his blog failry often about interesting economic developments http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/...-pricing.html.

His idea for a 1$ gas tax combined with an equal reduction in income taxes is really clever. Gets americans to save more and be environmentally friendly, without harming the economy. This also makes america a lot more economically indepedant.

[BadBoyBenny]

[ QUOTE ]
No more gotchas to be gotten with, just the same old beating sticks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Bison,

Are you saying that Hillary has no new ideas, she's already put them all out there so they'll all seem stale?

Or are you saying that all the mud there is to throw at her has already been thrown so any attack will seem stale?

[onthebutton]

I hope this thread doesn't get out of control over the weekend, as I won't have much time to post. I have a friend who is on the Romney team. He's an extremely experienced Washington insider who has some unique insight into the early races on both sides. I'll share what I can when I get time.