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  #1  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:29 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Help me understand this weird line

At one of my books, the spread for both the Indy game and the Dallas game is

-7 (-110)

The moneyline for the Indy/Jax game is -320/+260
The moneyline for the Dallas/GB game is -275/+225

Both home teams are favorites. I don't understand why the MLs are so different. According to sbrforums, +7 (-110) is roughly equivalent to -311/+260 moneylines. Therefore, it looks like there is a ton of value in hammering the Dallas ML.

What forces are at play here? The books do seem to be begging for GB money ATS.
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:43 PM
TomCowley TomCowley is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

The current MLs are

IND -275/+255 Pinny -268/+256 MB
DAL -285/+265 Pinny -278/+266 MB

which are very close. It looks like you just have a book hanging off-center lines that are protected by the huge juice. The MLs may be lower than average MLs for those spreads because of the high totals (Dal 51, IND 45, average 40-41).
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:14 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

[ QUOTE ]
The MLs may be lower than average MLs for those spreads because of the high totals (Dal 51, IND 45, average 40-41).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah yeah, I tend to forget to incorporate that into my thinking. Thanks.
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  #4  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:17 PM
Jazzy3113 Jazzy3113 is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

thanks for the brain teaser
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:33 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

Put 2.9u down on Dallas -275 (Don't ask. I wanted to risk 2.66u to win 1u and ended up looking at the payout instead.)

Put 0.5u down on Jax +260.

going solely on the fact that the lines are well of pinny/MB, although I think I forget to take juice into account. Oh well, still learning.
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  #6  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:37 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

Don't forget that when the public is on an underdog it prefers taking the ML over the points.
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Old 11-28-2007, 01:38 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that when the public is on an underdog it prefers taking the ML over the points.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Most lines are set that taking the ML is a better investment than taking the points I thought. That seems counterintuitive.
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  #8  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:44 PM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

Try going up to ten people who you would consider squares and ask if they would rather have GB +7 or GB +265.
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  #9  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:58 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

[ QUOTE ]
Try going up to ten people who you would consider squares and ask if they would rather have GB +7 or GB +265.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume that's true for the sake of argument. Why do the books offer more favorable moneylines on underdogs than they do on the spread?
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  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:47 AM
youtalkfunny youtalkfunny is offline
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Default Re: Help me understand this weird line

No one has mentioned yet:

The Packers are a "square" team.
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