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  #11  
Old 11-19-2007, 01:09 AM
chucky chucky is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

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My favorite is taking any three random cards and saying that if one comes on the flop, I get a dollar, if not I pay a dollar. I'm about a 55/45 favorite.

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You sure it's 55/45?

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40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 = 0.4470588

3 shots at hitting 12 outs with 52 unknown cards.

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Um if you were dealt a hand the numbers should be 38/40 * 37/49 * 36/48 = .538
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  #12  
Old 11-19-2007, 01:13 AM
Pot Odds RAC Pot Odds RAC is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

Isn't Bav's analysis the odds of any 3 NOT coming out on a Flop...?

...therefore I am roughly 55/45?
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  #13  
Old 11-19-2007, 01:19 AM
Pot Odds RAC Pot Odds RAC is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

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My favorite is taking any three random cards and saying that if one comes on the flop, I get a dollar, if not I pay a dollar. I'm about a 55/45 favorite.

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You sure it's 55/45?

[/ QUOTE ]

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 = 0.4470588

3 shots at hitting 12 outs with 52 unknown cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um if you were dealt a hand the numbers should be 38/40 * 37/49 * 36/48 = .538

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My cards are still unknown when the bet was made.
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  #14  
Old 11-19-2007, 01:53 AM
bav bav is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

"Math is hard," says Barbie.
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  #15  
Old 11-19-2007, 03:03 AM
KLJ KLJ is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

[ QUOTE ]
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My favorite is taking any three random cards and saying that if one comes on the flop, I get a dollar, if not I pay a dollar. I'm about a 55/45 favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

You sure it's 55/45?

[/ QUOTE ]

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 = 0.4470588

3 shots at missing 12 outs with 52 unknown cards.

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the answer is 1-x which is obviously 55%

it would be great if the odds of hitting on the first card was 40/52 lol?
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  #16  
Old 11-19-2007, 03:36 AM
patstap patstap is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

During this year's WSOP, I played in the 2:00am tourney at Binion's with Gavin Smith.

I proposed a $100 prop bet on the flop being all or mostly one color, he could pick the color.

He countered by saying he'd recently made this bet with Phil Ivey, but with the stipulation that if the flop was ALL one color, the bet was doubled.

I agreed and, on a mostly red flop, shipped the $100.
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  #17  
Old 11-19-2007, 12:18 PM
TacitMike TacitMike is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

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Um if you were dealt a hand the numbers should be 38/50 * 37/49 * 36/48 = .538

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Whoops, this is the same mistake I made. Dur...I was tired [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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  #18  
Old 11-19-2007, 12:44 PM
Mattyspin Mattyspin is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

the most common one we play in our home game is limited to 4 max players. each chooses a suit and a number (for instance K and spades, 4 and clubs, 9 and hearts, J and diamonds). when a flop holds at least 2 of the suit, player who has that suit gets paid 1 unit. for each of the numbers that falls on the flop, a player receives 1 unit.

best case scenario would be if 3 of your number hit the flop or 2 of your number with 2 of your suit on the flop (for K and spades, a K K K flop or Ks 5s Kh flop would yield 3 units).

units bet are typically 1SB in my home game, however at the club i frequent, $5 units are more the norm for a 1/2 NL game.
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  #19  
Old 11-19-2007, 03:16 PM
pfapfap pfapfap is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

I like the 3-card prop, and I keep forgetting to try it at my Monday night game. We also play the 7-2 game, so I'll try to bring it up like, "hey, y'know, when there's no ace on the flop, there's always a 7 or a 2" and see if I can establish a standing bet all night long. Gotta set it up before the math guy shows up, tho'.

Tho' these guys also know I'm better at this game than they are, and that I like to encourage others to gamble (c'mon, straddle!" without doing so myself. So we'll see how it works out.
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  #20  
Old 11-19-2007, 04:52 PM
TacitMike TacitMike is offline
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Default Re: Prop Bets at the table

I don't know if you call this a prop bet, but we play (in my very VERY casual home game) that if you win a pot with 7 2 (either by bluffing or by showing down) everyone tosses you 1 SB.
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