Moving to LA to play pro @ commerce? (long)

[pyroponic]

Well we know probably 90% of all players are losers in the long-term, but as you move up limits the percentage of winning players tend to rise. This is because the players are better and they more people know that tight-agressive play gets the money. However, as you move down limits an even higher percentage of players (probably like 95%) are losers due to the gigantic rake and all the players that could beat a limit like $3/6 end up moving to $5/10 or $8/16. I think it all balances out to arrive at the 90% figure.

[Rick Nebiolo]

No doubt you will do well now. But I'd think about the future. Some concerns:

- Will there be a greater or lessor influx of Internet toughened winning players moving to LA as the online games become less lucrative? I think the answer is obvious but I could be wrong.


- Will the number of "LA fish" increase or decrease over time to compensate for the influx of tough players moving to LA?

- - Here are a few factors likely to decrease the number of LA fish (or the amount of time a typical LA fish will play):

- - - Even fish need to win on occasion for encouragement. With more tough players in the mix these occasions will become increasingly infrequent. When an LA fish only wins on let's say 10% of their visits they can't easily lie to themselves that they "sort of break even".

- - - An economic downturn will lesson the amount of disposable income fish are willing to part with.

- - - An increase in rudeness in an already rude environment will discourage LA fish looking for some fun.


o o A few factors likely to increase the number of LA fish (or the amount of time a typical LA fish will play):

o o o TV poker might actually become entertaining as the novelty wears off.

o o o The food at card clubs might get better.

o o o The rake might go down.

o o o The clubs will spread the tables out more to increase the comfort level.

o o o The infamous lady whose name rhymes with "virus" will finally be barred making the world's largest card club a bit more civil and less abusive.

Good luck.

~ Rick

[Dave Mac]

i might be wrong but i don't think that there are that many players who will move to la to play live if/as the online games get tougher bc it is a big thing, people have familes, homes, lives etc it is not so easy to walk away from everything and move to la. i think that a fair amount of the people who want to/would do this have/will regaurdless.
dave

[todd1007]

[ QUOTE ]
Just be obsessive like me and wash your hands every hour or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

i stopped getting runny noses when i started doing this.
it is unbelievable how dirty the chips are. also, some casinos do not wash the glassware that well, so i always use a straw

[soah]

I was doing a bit of research recently to see if I might want to move to LA at some point in the future... and I simply cannot understand why people would choose to live there to play poker. The cost of living there is just astounding. When I was searching for one bedroom apartments in Vegas, most ran between about $750-$1000 per month in the areas I was looking for. When searching various parts of LA, it was hard to find any less than $2000 per month. And then there's state income tax, higher gas prices, various other expenses (higher time charge!)...

What am I missing?

The games might be a bit softer but unless you are beating games bigger than what's spread in Vegas, I just don't see how you can overcome that much of a difference in living expenses.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
i might be wrong but i don't think that there are that many players who will move to la to play live if/as the online games get tougher bc it is a big thing, people have familes, homes, lives etc it is not so easy to walk away from everything and move to la. i think that a fair amount of the people who want to/would do this have/will regaurdless.
dave

[/ QUOTE ]

My observation is that most of the tougher online players are young and don't have families or much to tie them down.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just be obsessive like me and wash your hands every hour or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

i stopped getting runny noses when i started doing this.
it is unbelievable how dirty the chips are. also, some casinos do not wash the glassware that well, so i always use a straw

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think you build up resistance to every possible germ playing poker in LA. I've lived here since 1989 and haven't had a fever once.

~ Rick

[JoeJohnJoe]

[ QUOTE ]
What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ] You're missing the how rediculously good the games are compared to a vegas at midstake levels (minbet and NL)

[sternroolz]

[ QUOTE ]

What am I missing?

The games might be a bit softer but unless you are beating games bigger than what's spread in Vegas, I just don't see how you can overcome that much of a difference in living expenses.

[/ QUOTE ]

For mid stakes limit holdem, there are 3 regular places to play in Vegas and 2 sort of off and on places. Mirage, Wynn, and Bellagio typically have 8 tables between them of stakes $10-20 up to $60-120, and the $60-120 is supposed to be a very tough game. Enough so that guys making 1.5 BB an hour at $30-60 can't move up because its too tough a game.

Los Angeles you have a multitude of games at this stakes. 3-8 $20-40, 3-10 $40-80, often 2 $60-120. And they are all very beatable with horrible players often sitting in the $40-80. Oh yeah, thats just at Commerce. There are also very beatable games at Hustler, Hollywood Park, and Hawaiian Gardens. Bike too, I just don't care that much for it.

Admitedly I do not have sufficient hours to make a real strong argument, but my own winrate is 1.7 BB per hour in Los Angeles mid limits, and only 1.1 BB per hour in Vegas games.

[PokerBob]

IMO if you're gonna do this, you're gonna need a bankroll bigger than you think.