JJ 3 bet pot 150 bb deep

[Profish2285]

Villain runs at 29/8/2.35 - no other reads

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($73.55)</font>
SB ($47.95)
BB ($92)
UTG ($30.40)
MP ($61.35)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($84.90)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1.75</font>, CO calls $1.75, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP folds, CO calls $7.25.

Flop: ($20.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $75.9 (All-In)</font>, Hero....

[insyder19]

this sucks, I hate this kind of situations, could be QQ, KK; AA, flush draw with overcards....I fold this one

[Spurious]

hmm, i think we should fold without reads
if he has 88 he's crazy

[matrix]

crying call.

tho if Hero has been 3betting preflop a lot I could talk myself into a call more readily - .

We aren't WA of anything BUT pot is offering about 2:1 so we are pretty much committed to this pot now.

We gots about 3 outs (2 Jacks + 2 bd draws) so when we are behind we are crushed - best case scenario we are up against KQcc and are 45/55 his range is probably more like

Board: 9c Tc 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.544% 25.95% 01.59% 7708 472.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 72.456% 70.87% 01.59% 21047 472.50 { TT+, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, 8c7c, 7c6c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs }

and that might be a little wide tbh tho he's quite aggro so I could see him pushing a naked fd or OESD here.

If his range here is QQ+ this is a turbo fold. (we are like 13% or so if thats the case)

I call here but hate it - given that I now have 1/3 of my stack in this pot have about ~50 behind which I can reload back to so folding isn't preserving a stack or anything.

I think I'd prefer betting $11 on this flop and folding to a raise I think betting $14 just tips it too far into pricing ourselves in for a call here. Also folding this hoists a big sign saying "I 3bet light - please run over me"

[Unknown Soldier]

w/ matrix, pf action is important in this hand, puts more speculative hands in his range.

[bozzer]

its 2-1 to us.

he could have a wide range preflop (he called twice) and is reasonably aggressive post.

but even so i'm having trouble giving him a wide enough range for us to call. i doubt he shoves 8 out draws...

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/p...l=3f867c7dc98b


Range Combos Equity
AcQc, AcKc, JJ+:50, TT, 9T, 99, 7c8c, 4c5c 43 73.4%
JcJd 1 26.6%

i have devalued big pockets by half because i think he'll reraise with those often preflop. arguably we should not assume he'll call two raises with an SC, but he is pretty passive preflop (and if he won't i think he has us crushed).

[takingcontrol]

best case we're flipping, though this is AA,KK and sometimes QQ so often.
stove says fold also.


/edit
just noticed he called twice PF. I still doubt we ever have odds to call here.

[Profish2285]

I ended up calling but I figured it was really close either way. I dont 3 bet a ton, but I dont 3 bet very little either, I guess its right in the middle.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
I ended up calling

[/ QUOTE ]

we can tell from teh OP [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont 3 bet a ton, but I dont 3 bet very little either, I guess its right in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

define "right in the middle"

and whats more important is recent table history in the past few orbits - if you have 3bet frequently this makes this more likely to be villain shoving a drawy hand that we haave good equity against - if not I turbo fold - if it's some nit who's waited till KK+ to make a stand - turbo fold.

Basically villain needs a fairly wide range here to make calling correct - folding sucks cos we have lots invested already are back to 100bbwhether we fold or if we lose and are closeish to being potstuck. Having said that the best play might be to fold - it depends a lot on the villain and how he plays postflop.