400nl...flop bluff, good or spewey?

[LucidDream]

Villain is basically a total NIT. 16/1.3 and he hasn't done anything out of line. I think his min bet is super weak and he is just tesing the waters with a mid PP. I don't really know if he calls this with AQ or not but I would think by his numbers I may be able to get him to fold it. If he calls the flop I am obv done vs a player who could have QQ here after just smooth calling preflop. There is no way he has a 3 unless it is 33 either.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $596
CO: $787
Hero: $401.50
SB: $464.50
BB: $120.65

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $18</font>, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($42, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $30</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $60</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $160</font>, CO folds.
Uncalled bets: $100 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $162

[PatInTheHat]

I don't mind this play occasionally. I think his most likely hand is a medium PP or and he will probably fold this a good % of the time.

[yvesaint]

raise to 120 instead

[AlwaysAir]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 120 instead

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, pretty much same success rate - but you only need for it to work 1/3 times instead of 1/2 to make it breakeven/profitable.

[NLSoldier]

Id make it 140. Love the play. Almost never fails.

[mikeJ]

Looks spewy to me, except against this specific villain type.

[fsista]

Depends on specific villian, even though you gave me numbers it varies.

I believe this is a fairly good move though. I would probably make it 150 in your situation (both with 57s and AA)

[CopTHIS]

I think everyone makes these plays sometimes, espcially when they get annoyed by effing min c/raises when card-dry - but it's so villian dependent it could be good or spewy. Some nits will basically felt every time they c/r, other players c/r any old pair. I'd ususally want some kind of read tbh but even if it failed it probably wouldn't be bad for the image.

[mikeJ]

Also, OP, when asking us to interpret the spewiness of a bluff, don't include that villain folded (i.e., that your bluff worked).