NL200 - weak overpair, short stacked, what's my plan?

[ActionStan]

Bodog No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($123.53)
MP3 ($597.94)
CO ($173.00)
Button ($197.00)
SB ($76.22)
BB ($178.50)
UTG ($464.50)
UTG+1 ($366.00)
MP1 ($448.39)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]], 9[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]].
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($19) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks.

What's my plan?

I feel like I bet here out of habit, but there are very few hands that I beat that are going to give me any kind of action. When I get action there are no cards that I want to see. Anyone checking to induce a bet? If I'm betting, what's my plan if I get raised given that I'm pretty short? What if I have 100BB? Any other thoughts?

[Ryanj37]

Bet ~$15.

Checking to induce a bet is not a good plan. Theres a whole host of turn cards you dont like that will leave you wondering where you are at.

If you get raised fold is probably the best plan. His range will consist of sets better overpairs and big draws which you are flipping coins with.

[CalledDownLight]

Just bet $15. Probably fold to a raise, but so many turn cards could be dangerous if he leads and you will have to call on a lot of them.

[nation]

you have to bet. you get value out of flush draws and all the medium pairs that havent setted up. i check behind on the turn and call a small riv bet. if flush hits i just fold.

if he c/r i fold.

[Hklm8383]

[ QUOTE ]
you have to bet. you get value out of flush draws and all the medium pairs that havent setted up. i check behind on the turn and call a small riv bet. if flush hits i just fold.

if he c/r i fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pattay]

pleasepleaseplease bet this your hand is vulnerable and you wanna take down the pot ASAP

[ranka]

I would CBET to 15$ and want to take this pot down NOW! If villain call, and turn is not 9 and he is checking, check behind and take free river card.

[ActionStan]

First for all of you saying I need to protect against the draws, I'm not sure that is a huge concern. Mostly this villain is going to have a pocket pair, of which I beat less than half, (44,55,66,88) or a hand like KQ, AJ or sometimes QJ. Most of the time the villain is going to be drawing to 2 or 6 outs. If the villain has a flush draw and overs, he is NEVER folding to my bet and I'm not a favorite. Against any unlikely combo draw I'm not a favorite. Betting just makes the pot bigger with a hand that I don't want to play a big pot with. My hand on this board really isn't all that good against any hand the villain wants to play with.

So here's the thing. Everyone says bet. Bet, bet, bet. In fact, I bet here almost 100% of the time. I reflexively bet.

But, if I'm betting this all the time, then is is almost always correct for the villain to check/raise me with any 2. Or, if rolls are reverses and I'm the villain and I smooth call a MI open raise from the CO or BN, I should raise this flop with any 2. There is very little of my range that I can call a raise with. I need a quality draw or strong overpair. It only gets worse if stacks are deeper. With 50BB and a particularly active villain, it probably isn't so wrong to just stick it in here. With a passive villain it's a pretty straight forward fold. With 100BB, I just don't want to play for stacks. It's very hard for me to call. Betting makes me incredibly vulnerable to any thinking player.

In fact, I do check/raise and 3-bet these sorts of flops all the time with hands that are probably second best with good success. That leads me to believe my flop line isn't very good.

So, no one has convinced me that betting is right or what it accomplishes beyond denying a hand with 6 outs to draw to those outs. Does anyone have an argument that doesn't boil down to "you just need to bet this"?