Need help value betting river, please

[pepper123]

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sure, you might get called by one or two inferior hands if you bet, but what about the many hands that beat you that will also call? the number of 2nd best hands that call has to compare to the number of hands that beat you for a bet to be profitable.

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if you're talking about hand 1... name a hand that's better than JJ that checks 3 times. hell even if he shows up with a HORRIBLY playing 87 we're ahead now.

[bighead9]

just because the opponent is unlikely to have a better hand than JJ, doesn't mean we should bet. i just don't think you can get called by an inferior hand. most of the time, your opponent will fold a hand that he would have either checked behind, or bluffed with. by betting, you ONLY get called when you are beat; the rest of the time, your opponent folds a hand he would have checked behind or bluffed. so how is betting correct? maybe if you knew your opponent likes to make big overbets all-in on the river, then perhaps you can "name your own price" and control your losses by betting out a specified amount, rather than have to call an all-in overbet.

[bighead9]

also, if i was the opponent and had QQ here, i don't mind just smooth-calling the whole way - the pot stays manageable (meaning i don't lose the maximum those times i'm behind) and i extract more money from bluffs than i would have if i had raised at some point along the way.

[Demogorgon]

Well, maybe you missed the facts that opponent in hand one is 40/10 and opponent in hand 3 has a note on him that says station? These are people we can value bet very thin vs.

Looking in my own new database to find a good example, heres one thats okay, vs a 45/15.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $244.40
BB: $232.35
UTG: $199.00
CO: $310.75
BTN: $625.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.00</font>, BB folds, CO calls $7.00

Flop: ($20) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q 3 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16.00</font>, CO calls $16.00

Turn: ($52) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $30.00</font>, CO calls $30.00

River: ($112) 9 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $72.00</font>, CO calls $72.00

Pot Size: $256.00 ($3 Rake)

CO had T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ([Ts Qh] two pair, Queens and Nines) and LOST (-$127.00)
Hero had K Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Queens and Nines) and WON (+$126.00)

[BDaws]

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1) $92
2) $78
3) $102

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I guess people are way bigger calling stations that I initially realized.

[Fonkey123]

Bet all of these.

[pepper123]

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also, if i was the opponent and had QQ here, i don't mind just smooth-calling the whole way - the pot stays manageable (meaning i don't lose the maximum those times i'm behind) and i extract more money from bluffs than i would have if i had raised at some point along the way.


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If you're talking about hand one, playing QQ like villain played would be absolutely atrocious

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just because the opponent is unlikely to have a better hand than JJ, doesn't mean we should bet. i just don't think you can get called by an inferior hand.

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in hand 1 i think we can get a 1/2 pot bet paid off by a worse hand pretty easily. i know that whenever i try to 3 barrel a board like this with a missed draw i get called by 98 here.

also, if i can say for like 99% certainty that i have the best hand (and i'd say that about hand 1) then i'm going to bet away. i'm beat so rarely that i'm not going to worry about what he calls me with.