Impending Regulations/Reality Check

[JimmytheHat19]

With the pending regulations (which I understand are supposed to be out within a couple weeks) I need to know what is going to happen to ePassporte. I have been freaking out for the last 6 months or so in anticipation of this and it looks like it is finally going to happen.

Very simple question: Will I be able to continue to make withdrawals to ePassporte from my poker site (Full Tilt) and then hit the ATM and get my money AFTER the regulations are out?

My current financial and employment situations depend heavily on the answer to that question. I would appreciate any intelligent answers... I know there are a lot of intelligent ppl on here. Sorry if this is an old or boring topic... I cant think of a better place to ask this question.

[WichitaDM]

Being an online pro for the last four years this is a big concern for me also. But having studied this a lot i will give you my take on what i know about this issue.

First off Epassporte is slightly better positioned than the other payment processors in one way being that they dont take "gambling" transactions, only poker transactions.

They are in a tough position with regard to the regulations because as i understand it they are based here in the US of A. In other words if the regulations strictly prohibit ePassporte, they will likely have to close shop to us.

That being said, im not sure anybody has any idea what the regulations have in store for us at this point. They are over a month late now and frankly could be just about anything. From my understanding of the way this is going to work the worst case scenerio will look something like this.

The regulations come out next week
Epassporte immediately closes up shop
We have to rely on checks during the comment period
The 90 day comment period ends and the poker sites decide they can no longer stay in the market because of the harshness of the regulations

However what i think will happen is somewhere in between what we have now and the above scenerio.

I see the regulations coming out sometime in August.
During the 90 day comment period it will be the status quo.
After the comment period when they go into effect we will be down to basically checks and a few minor processors.
Epassporte surviving is possible due to the non handling of sportsbetting and casino gambling.
Possibly one or two of the major sites will close to the US.

Personally i hope we maintain the status quo after the regulations, but i think there will be at least minor damage. I do think it will stop short of total shutdown though. There is going to be too little money and attention spent on this by the federal govt, and too much demand by US citizens to compeltely close this market.

[MiltonFriedman]

"Epassporte surviving is possible due to the non handling of sportsbetting and casino gambling.
Possibly one or two of the major sites will close to the US.'

Fair analysis generally, except that the likelihood of BOTH your above sentences coming about bare close to zero.

IF ePassporte were to get a "pass" under the Regs., about a 1% chance, and the "pass" was due to a poker only status, then it would be Christmas in August. However, that is NOT going to happen.

Epassporte MAY get a pass, functionally, if it is exempted as an EFT/wallet provider from offshore. I'd say about a 3% chance.

As for one or more major rooms closing to US players, I'd say about a 80% chance, even if the Regs are beatable thru an offshore EFT/wallet provider.

On the bright side, I think you are wrong about the market being underserved. Anyone who is a "pro" will be motivared enough to find the way to play and there will be venues online to play. IF players want to play, there will be one or more sites available, with both US and foreign players .... The problem has always been the accessibility of sites to US casual players and the heavy dependence of "favorite" poker sites on the US market. THAT segment may die.

In three years, the drought will be over and the US market will again be accessible to the casual player, with US approved brands.

[JPFisher55]

If any regulation bans Epassporte, then I predict that they will initiate litigation challenging the regulation. The owners of Epassporte have experience in challenging the DOJ because they serve adult porn sites.
I actually think that if the regs ever come out, then they will be more general in nature. They won't give online poker an exemption or declare it legal, but they won't specifically target online poker or any type of online gambling.
I doubt that the regs will greatly change the present situation.

[Uglyowl]

Here is a website with one guys take. Not a bad little site he put together. luckychancer posted this in the internet forum and didn't get any response.

http://www.compatiblepoker.com/usa.php#usapokerupdates

[Legislurker]

I think epassporte is watching closely. I guess I read some hope for it into the UB/Absolute ultimatum they gave out over BJ. I am planning on full time AC play around Christmas anyways and the 90 days gets me there. We should know more WTO-wise by then. I think the scale of sanctions will let us know how the arbitration panels would rule on renegotiated committments. If Antigua gets anywhere near 3.4bn, then look for the US to start some serious negotiations. Sept 4th is the hearing for iMega, and if they arent laughed out of court we may see some angles for epass to use to shoot in court. And if Frank gets anything done, it will be late in the session on a last minute bill that if Bush vetoed would spell major problems.
Bottom line is, we are still watching and waiting, powerless. I wish I could know something before November, but I doubt it.

[Halstad]

I've seen this website.
On August 2nd he wrote "According to a reliable source and someone who works on Capital Hill the UIGEA regulations are just about done and should come out within 1-2 weeks. This of course is a rumor but it's from people in DC so it's better than someone winging it"

Who knew his source was 2+2, this was one day after Berge reported the exact same thing.

[BluffTHIS!]

JimmyH,

You are constraining the question too much by specifying not only the general means of withdrawal (epass), but also the specific means (ATM cash withdrawals). The question you should be asking is whether there will be sites to play on from which you can somehow withdraw your money, even if it is more of a hassle/takes longer, than you experienced previously. I believe the answer to that question will be yes. At the very least, the sports books who have poker sites affiliated with them, will stay in the market because they already are illegal, and because they have an incentive to work around the regs, even if that means creating new bank accounts every month or having you use "Jose Doe in Santiago" as a go-between.

Ewallets are the most likely to be affected effectively by the regs (but epass *should* be less so), and checks are the least likely given a willingness by the sites to constantly adapt.

[CompatiblePoker]

[ QUOTE ]

Who knew his source was 2+2, this was one day after Berge reported the exact same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find Berge quite a reliable source don't you? In a lot of the posts I give props to twoplustwo members pointing out or emailing me info.

In regards to the op, Wichita and Milton summed things up pretty well. Also, I think you'll see a lot more mergers & selling of US player databases but I don't see any of the big sites going anywhere.

As far as epassporte, I think they will do everything in their power to stay in business although it doesnt look good. Their business quadrupled over night because of poker sites pushing them...I'm sure their legal team is ready and well paid.

[BluffTHIS!]

The real question here regarding ewallets or offshore banks, is what legal basis does the gov't have to have to blacklist such an entity. To be sure, the IUGEA indemnified the US banks for wrongfully taking actions to block transactions. But if challenged in court, what legal justification does the DoJ have to show to justify a listing? Can they just blacklist any overseas corp which then has to prove it doesn't, or agree not to in the future, faciliate poker and/or other gaming transactions (i.e. guilty until the accused proves itself innocent or pledges to be innocent in the future)? Perhaps Milton or other attorneys could comment on this.